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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Fox News, a senior Trump administration official confirmed that no deal will be signed today but that significant progress has been made. On nuclear issues, the official was firm: "if we have a final deal where the Iranians are enriching, then you don't have a final deal," stressing that any agreement must eliminate Iran's path to a nuclear weapon.

โžก๏ธ On the Strait of Hormuz, the official rejected Fars News' reports suggesting Iran would control vessel numbers, stating that "we do not think a toll is an acceptable outcome" for the waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of a "NAMER" APC using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Deir Seryan' on the 18th of May.

Notably, a new FPV variant is being used instead of the usual "Mark4 V2 10", which Hezbollah labels the "Ababil".


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of a "NAMER" APC using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Deir Seryan' on the 18th of May. Notably, a new FPV variant is being used instead of the usual "Mark4 V2 10", which Hezbollah labels the "Ababil".โ€ฆ
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "HEMTT" SIGINT using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's '' on the 19th of May.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- IDF Chief of Staff Zamir stated that the IDF is closely monitoring regional developments surrounding the emerging US-Iran deal, adding that it remains "ready to return to intense combat immediately" to further degrade Iranian capabilities. He stressed that the IDF will maintain full readiness and flexibility for as long as necessary.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Fox News, Trump wants the deal as put forward by his negotiators, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; if those terms aren't met, there will be no agreement.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to an informed source cited by Tasnim News Agency, Iran has made the release of a specific portion of its frozen assets a firm precondition for any agreement, with a clear and guaranteed mechanism for the release of all remaining assets alsoโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Tasnim News Agency reports that despite ongoing talks, U.S. obstruction on several clauses of the agreement, particularly the release of Iran's frozen assets, continues to prevent a final deal. Iran has emphasized that it will not retreat from its red lines, and the possibility of the agreement falling through remains on the table.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem: According to my sources, the draft proposal thatโ€™s supposed to be finalised include: -End of war on all fronts including Lebanon -Freeing several billion dollars of Iran's blocked funds -Lifting the U.S. naval blockadeโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง- Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem:
Less than 24 hours after optimism emerged around a possible Iran-US memorandum, negative vibes are already surfacing.
A well-informed Iranian source tells me there are signs of U.S. retreat on two central issues: the mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets, and the scope of a ceasefire in Lebanon.

According to the source, the memorandum includes a Lebanon ceasefire framework, but Israel is reportedly uncomfortable with the arrangement and is pushing Washington to include language allowing it to carry out military operations in Lebanon under the justification of responding to โ€œany threat.โ€ Iran is rejecting that formulation and insisting on a sustainable and lasting ceasefire.

Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the memorandum unless all clauses are fully agreed and guaranteed. Pakistan reportedly suggested moving forward with agreed sections while postponing contentious points, but Iran rejected that approach, insisting the disputed clauses are fundamental and non-negotiable.
The overall picture suggests Tehran increasingly views Washington as backing away from earlier understandings reached through mediators.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Axios, a senior Trump administration official stated that no signature on the agreement is expected today, with several details still to be resolved. "There's still back-and-forth on certain details, some words that are important to usโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Axios reports that U.S. officials are optimistic that a deal will be signed within days but acknowledge it has not yet been finalized and could still collapse. "We are in a very good place, but there are ways in which the deal can be undermined," a senior U.S. official said.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:
If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama, which gave Iran massive amounts of CASH, and a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon. Our deal is the exact opposite, but nobody has seen it, or knows what it is. It isnโ€™t even fully negotiated yet. So donโ€™t listen to the losers, who are critical about something they know nothing about. Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I donโ€™t make bad deals! President DJT


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that the emerging agreement with Iran has garnered regional support but cautioned that a nuclear deal cannot be achieved "in 72 hours on the back of a napkin."

โžก๏ธ "We're not kicking it till later. Nuclear talks are highly technical matters. You can't do a nuclear thing in 72 hours on the back of a napkin," Rubio told The New York Times.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒŸ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- A U.S. Air Force Boeing C-17A Globemaster III transport aircraft has squawked 7700 (General Emergency) over central Romania while flying south towards U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility. The aircraft took off from Ramstein Air Base in West Germany.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- A senior Trump administration official has also told NBC News that no deal with Iran will be signed today, though progress has been made. "The Iran agreement will not be signed today, but there has been progress on a deal," the official said.
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๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to a regional source cited by Axios, all Arab and Muslim leaders on the call with Donald Trump today urged him to proceed with the deal and de-escalate the situation, with the message from all parties being "please stop the war for theโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ- According to Axios, Donald Trump told Arab and Muslim leaders on Saturday's call that ending the Iran war should be followed by them joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel, catching several leaders off guard.

โžก๏ธ A Saudi-Israeli deal remains Trump's primary goal, though Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stepped back from his earlier openness to the idea, with Saudi insisting on a commitment to Palestinian statehood as a precondition, something Israel refuses.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- A report from Fox News says that a framework agreement with Iran is "95% there," with officials claiming Iran has agreed in principle to the framework.

โžก๏ธ However, negotiators are still haggling over the language around Iran's nuclear stockpile and the Strait of Hormuz. "We are not going to sign a deal today or tomorrow," an official said, adding that Donald Trump's instinct is to give negotiators another five to seven days.

โžก๏ธ The administration's "No Dust, No Dollars" policy continues to guide negotiations, with officials stressing they will not accept a bad deal and retain the option to resume military strikes if an agreement is not reached.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- A report from Fox News says that a framework agreement with Iran is "95% there," with officials claiming Iran has agreed in principle to the framework. โžก๏ธ However, negotiators are still haggling over the language around Iran's nuclear stockpileโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to the Wall Street Journal citing a senior Trump administration official, the "No Dust, No Dollars" statement is more complicated than widely reported, with the possible deal unfolding in three steps:

1: A deal is reached, the strait reopens and the naval U.S. blockade lifts;

2: Both sides agree to all terms;

3: Sanctions are lifted gradually as Iran complies, including disposing of its enriched uranium stockpiles.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "HEMTT" SIGINT using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's '' on the 19th of May. @GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Merkava IV(B)" Tank using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' on the 14th of May.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Merkava IV(B)" Tank using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' on the 14th of May. @GeoPWatch
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of numerous IDF assets within an armored gathering using "Ababil" FPV drones in southern Lebanon's 'Rchaf' across days.

On the 8th of May, a "Merkava IV" tank upper-front plate was struck. On the 13th, a "HMMWV" was struck. On the 14th, a number of gas cylinders outside a building an IDF force was fortifying in was struck. On the 15th, 2 "HEMTT" fuel tanks, 1 "HMMWV" and 1 "D9" Bulldozer were struck. on the 17th, another building in which an IDF force was fortfying in was struck. On the 19th, a SATCOM device was struck.

On the 21st, an FPV drone conducted surveillance in the attack area, finding that the majority of the forces withdrew, following the attacks. The drone proceeded to target the rear turret of a "Merkava IV" tank.

Noteworthy is the spreading of nettings on buildings by the IDF, in attempt to intercept these FPV drones. Moreover, no Infantry soldiers are in sight, as the IDF has begun avoiding direct exposure to a maximum.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- According to Tasnim News Agency, Iran has pushed back against Israeli news agency i24's reports claiming American officials said Iran would not receive any sanctions relief until it begins transferring its enriched uranium. Iran denies this linkage exists in the current text and refuses to connect the release of frozen assets to the nuclear issue at this stage.

โžก๏ธ Iran insists that a portion of its frozen assets must be released and fully accessible at the very moment any agreement is announced, citing past experiences of US non-compliance. The release of assets in the first step will not be conditional on nuclear materials, and the initial understanding should focus solely on ending the war.

โžก๏ธ Iran warned that if frozen assets are not released as a first step, a red line will have been crossed and there will be no agreement. The memorandum has not been finalized, partly due to U.S. obstruction on the asset release issue, and the possibility of no deal remains.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- According to Tasnim News Agency, Iran has pushed back against Israeli news agency i24's reports claiming American officials said Iran would not receive any sanctions relief until it begins transferring its enriched uranium. Iran denies this linkageโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- An informed source also told Tasnim that Iran holds no optimism toward the US, conducting all exchanges through the Pakistani mediator with deep skepticism.

โžก๏ธ While no final agreement has been reached and challenges remain, the source stressed that even if an initial understanding is achieved, it would not signal any change in Iran's view of America or trust in US commitments.

โžก๏ธ Citing America's poor track record in negotiations, the source warned that Iran will closely monitor US actions following any announcement and will retain its leverage to respond if the US fails to honor its commitments.

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