Geopolitics Watch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Unfortunately, the bystander that was shot during the incident has passed away, according to CNN. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- CNN's use of wording in its reporting appeared to give the misleading impression that the bystander had died, though this does not appear to be the case. As of now, the person remains hospitalized but is in serious condition; there has been no official confirmation of the person's death as of yet.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- According to Iran's Mehr News Agency, an Israeli Orbiter reconnaissance drone was shot down by Iranian air defense systems in the southeastern defense operational area based in Bandar-Abbas.

โžก๏ธ The Orbiter is a radar-evading drone, but officials did not reveal the interception system's specifications, only noting that no such drone can enter the mission area's airspace, which includes the Persian Gulf and surrounding regions.

โžก๏ธ The wreckage was recovered with help from the Faraj naval patrol fleet in Hormozgan province.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to an informed source cited by Tasnim News Agency, Iran has made the release of a specific portion of its frozen assets a firm precondition for any agreement, with a clear and guaranteed mechanism for the release of all remaining assets also required.

โžก๏ธ This stance has been shared with Pakistani and regional mediators. The source stated that the U.S. is hindering progress despite previous agreements and emphasized that Iran will not trust promises regarding asset release due to past American violations. This disagreement is reportedly a major barrier to a final agreement.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - Member of the Iranian delegation to Islamabad, Seyed Mohammad Marandi, has posted a list of points that are reportedly in the US/Iran MoU:
The Zionist regime [Israel] will not have "freedom of action." [Regarding Lebanon]

Management of Hormuz is a matter of Iran-Oman coordination as coastal states.

Iran makes no nuclear commitments under this MoU, except regarding nuclear weapons, which is nothing new

Iran will have access to its blocked assets.

Energy-related sanctions will be waived.


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๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท-Turkish riot police have stormed the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) headquarters in Ankara, deploying pepper gas, tear gas, and plastic bullets to evict the ousted leadership. The raid follows a court ruling that annulled the party's 2023 congress, which had elected ร–zgรผr ร–zel as chairman, and reinstated former leader Kemal KฤฑlฤฑรงdaroฤŸlu.

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Forwarded from AMK Mapping
Last night and this morning, another large-scale, combined Russian missile and drone attack was carried out on Ukraine.

Missiles launched:


~20 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from 4 Tu-95MS strategic bombers at their launch lines over western Kostroma Oblast.

~20 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from OTRK installations in eastern Bryansk Oblast.

~18 Kalibr cruise missiles launched from 3 surface-carriers at Novorossiysk Naval Base, Krasnodar Krai.

~16 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Klintsy, Bryansk Oblast.

~10 Iskander-K cruise missiles launched from OTRK installations in northern Kursk Oblast.

~6 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations near Pochep, Bryansk Oblast.

~6 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles launched from ground-based installations in western Crimea.

~5 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles launched from 5 MiG-31K fighters at their launch lines over eastern Tambov Oblast.

~4 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installations in northern Kursk Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) near Liski, Voronezh Oblast.

~2 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles launched from OTRK installation(s) in Crimea.

~2 Oreshnik Intermediate-range ballistic missiles launched from the Kapustin Yar Testing Ground, Astrakhan Oblast.

-----------------------

Total missiles launched:

~30 Iskander-K cruise missiles
~30 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
~20 Kh-101 cruise missiles
~18 Kalibr cruise missiles
~6 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles
~5 Kinzhal hypersonic aeroballistic missiles
~2 Oreshnik Intermediate-range ballistic missiles

~111 missiles in total.

-----------------------

Ukrainian air defence work:

As of the time of writing, it appears that Ukrainian air defence was able to intercept at least 8 Kalibrs, 6 Iskander-M/S-400s, 5 Kh-101s, and 5 Iskander-Ks (minimum 24 interceptions in total).

-----------------------

The main targets for this strike was Ukrainian defence industries in Kyiv. The following was targeted:

- "Artem" Defence Plant in Kyiv (50.46181, 30.48462)

- Podilskyi District SBU Office in Kyiv (50.46565, 30.51485).

- Something at/near the ship Repair depot in Kyiv (50.48148, 30.51604).

- Former "Radical" chemical plant in Kyiv (50.45474, 30.65312).

- Multiple targets at the Darnytsky Industrial Zone in Kyiv (50.42763, 30.69182).

- "Analitprylad" Plant in Kyiv (50.45175, 30.42651).

- Former "Rele i Avtomatyky" Plant in Kyiv (50.44858, 30.42187).

- "Lagoda" Business Park" in Kyiv (50.4444, 30.4529).

- "ATB" warehouse in Sviatopetrivske, Kyiv Oblast (50.38514, 30.29535).

- "Chaika" logistics company warehouse in Chaiky, Kyiv Oblast (50.44001, 30.30379).

- Starokostyantyniv Airbase, Khmelnytskyi Oblast (50.42763, 30.69182).

- Unknown target near Kropyvnytskyi, Kirovohrad Oblast (possibly Kanatove Airbase).

- Unknown target in southern Zhytomyr Oblast.

- Unknown target in Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast.

- Unknown target near Mayaky, Odesa Oblast.

- Unknown target in northwestern Poltava Oblast.

- Unknown target south of Dnipro.

-----------------------

Keep in mind, the numbers of missiles launched may be slightly higher than what I've listed, as the number of missiles detected is sometimes lower than actual launches.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrives in India for a four-day official visit.

Meeting with Indian Prime Minister Modi, Rubio underlines the "strategic alliance" between the two countries. The US is trying to repair its straining tie with India after the tumultuous first year of the Trump presidency. The many sources of tension include India's brief conflict with Pakistan, the Trump's tariff, the US-fomented energy crisis and the sanction on Russian energy import.

The meeting of the Quad, a US-led 'alliance' with India, Japan and Australia aimed at containing China, will be held in India early next week.

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Forwarded from Tabz - Alternative Media (Tabz)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโšก๏ธ โ€” President Trump to ABC News:
I can't talk about the deal; it's totally up to me, and if there is news, it will only be good news.

I don't make bad deals.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:
One of the worst deals ever made by our Country was the Iran Nuclear Deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama Administration. It was a direct path to Iran developing a Nuclear Weapon. Not so with the transaction currently being negotiated with Iran by the Trump Administration - THE EXACT OPPOSITE, in fact! The negotiations are proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner, and I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side. The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes! Our relationship with Iran is becoming a much more professional and productive one. They must understand, however, that they cannot develop or procure a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. I would like to thank, thus far, all of the countries of the Middle East for their support and cooperation, which will be further enhanced and strengthened by their joining the Nations of the historic Abraham Accords and, who knows, perhaps the Islamic Republic of Iran would like to join, as well! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social: One of the worst deals ever made by our Country was the Iran Nuclear Deal, put forth and signed into existence by Barack Hussein Obama and the rank amateurs of the Obama Administration. It was a direct path to Iranโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ- Summary: Donald Trump is praising the ongoing negotiations, contrasting them favorably with the Obama-era nuclear deal, which he described as "one of the worst deals ever made."

โžก๏ธ Trump stated he has instructed his representatives not to rush into an agreement, adding that "time is on our side" and that the U.S. naval blockade will remain in place until a deal is certified and signed.

โžก๏ธ He described the relationship with Iran as becoming "more professional and productive." Trump also thanked West Asian countries for their support and floated the possibility of Iran eventually joining the Abraham Accords (the Abraham Accords are a set of agreements that established diplomatic normalization between Israel and several Arab states).
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- A senior Iranian source told Reuters earlier today that Iran has not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile, stressing that nuclear issues are not part of the current preliminary agreement with the US.

โžก๏ธ "The nuclear issue will be addressed in negotiations for a final agreement and are therefore not part of the current deal. There has been no agreement over Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile to be shipped out of the country," the source said.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Axios, a senior Trump administration official stated that no signature on the agreement is expected today, with several details still to be resolved. "There's still back-and-forth on certain details, some words that are important to us and some words that are important to them," the official said.

โžก๏ธ The official claimed that the Iranian system does not move quickly in its current configuration and that it will take a few days for the agreement to go through all necessary approvals.
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu:
I spoke last night with President Donald Trump about the memorandum of understanding to reopen the Straits of Hormuz and the upcoming negotiations toward a final agreement on Iranโ€™s nuclear program.

I expressed my deep appreciation to President Trump for his unwavering commitment to Israelโ€™s security, including during Operation Roaring Lion and Epic Fury, when American and Israeli forces fought shoulder to shoulder against the Iranian threat.

President Trump and I agreed that any final agreement with Iran must eliminate the nuclear danger. That means dismantling Iranโ€™s nuclear enrichment sites and removing its enriched nuclear material from its territory.

President Trump also reaffirmed Israelโ€™s right to defend itself against threats on every front, including Lebanon.

The partnership between us and our two countries has been proven on the battlefield and has never been stronger.

My policy, like President Trumpโ€™s, remains unchanged: Iran will not have nuclear weapons.


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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Fox News, a senior Trump administration official confirmed that no deal will be signed today but that significant progress has been made. On nuclear issues, the official was firm: "if we have a final deal where the Iranians are enriching, then you don't have a final deal," stressing that any agreement must eliminate Iran's path to a nuclear weapon.

โžก๏ธ On the Strait of Hormuz, the official rejected Fars News' reports suggesting Iran would control vessel numbers, stating that "we do not think a toll is an acceptable outcome" for the waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil trade passes.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of a "NAMER" APC using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Deir Seryan' on the 18th of May.

Notably, a new FPV variant is being used instead of the usual "Mark4 V2 10", which Hezbollah labels the "Ababil".


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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of a "NAMER" APC using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Deir Seryan' on the 18th of May. Notably, a new FPV variant is being used instead of the usual "Mark4 V2 10", which Hezbollah labels the "Ababil".โ€ฆ
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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "HEMTT" SIGINT using an "Ababil" FPV drone in southern Lebanon's '' on the 19th of May.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท- IDF Chief of Staff Zamir stated that the IDF is closely monitoring regional developments surrounding the emerging US-Iran deal, adding that it remains "ready to return to intense combat immediately" to further degrade Iranian capabilities. He stressed that the IDF will maintain full readiness and flexibility for as long as necessary.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ- According to Fox News, Trump wants the deal as put forward by his negotiators, including Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; if those terms aren't met, there will be no agreement.

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