Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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Geopolitics Watch
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇨🇺- Speaking from the White House ballroom construction site, Donald Trump revealed he was "an hour away" from ordering strikes on Iran if the West Asian leaders didn't call him, stating that Iranian officials were aware the US was on the verge of acting.

➡️ Trump gave Iran "two or three days. Maybe Friday, Saturday, or Sunday, maybe early next week" to engage in negotiations, warning that another strike may still be necessary and that a decision would come "very soon."

➡️ Despite claiming Iran is "begging to make a deal," Trump expressed uncertainty over next steps and dismissed suggestions the war is unpopular. Separately, he expressed optimism about reaching a diplomatic agreement with Cuba.

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🇨🇳🤝🇷🇺 - Beijing is set to host Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 20, immediately after the Trump-Xi summit. This would be President Putin's first trip abroad this year. @GeoPWatch
🇷🇺🤝🇨🇳- Russian President Vladimir Putin has arrived in Beijing, China.
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🇺🇸🌍🇳🇬❌🏴‍☠️- Yesterday, U.S. Africa Command, in coordination with the Nigerian government, conducted additional strikes against ISWAP in northeastern Nigeria.

➡️ Intelligence confirmed the targets were ISWAP terrorists, with assessments still ongoing. No US or Nigerian forces were harmed. AFRICOM reaffirmed its commitment to working alongside partners to counter shared security threats.

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🇺🇸🌍🇳🇬❌🏴‍☠️- Yesterday, U.S. Africa Command, in coordination with the Nigerian government, conducted additional strikes against ISWAP in northeastern Nigeria. ➡️ Intelligence confirmed the targets were ISWAP terrorists, with assessments still ongoing. No…
🇳🇬🇺🇸🌍❌🏴‍☠️- According to the Nigerian Armed Forces HQ, joint strikes conducted in coordination with U.S. AFRICOM have eliminated 175 ISWAP terrorists as of today.

➡️ Senior figures killed include Abd-al Wahhab, Abu Musa al-Mangawi, and Abu al-Muthanna al-Muhajir. The strikes also destroyed ISWAP checkpoints, weapons caches, logistical hubs, and financial networks. Joint operations are set to continue.

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⚡️🇱🇧🇱🇧❌🇮🇱 - Hezbollah published footage of the targeting of an IDF "Merkava IV" Tank Turret munition-bin using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Bayada' on the 16th of May.

The operation was not previously announced.

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🇺🇸🇮🇱❌🇮🇷- According to Kan News, Israel is preparing for the possibility of a renewed U.S. attack on Iran, with discussions ongoing in both the Israeli defence establishment and the White House.

➡️ An American security source told Kan News that joint US-Israeli preparations for a resumption of hostilities have been completed, with Trump expected to make a decision "very soon." The source stressed that "the United States and Israel are fully coordinated, neither side will be surprised when the decision is made to resume the war."

➡️ Israeli security preparedness is currently at its most advanced stage since the ceasefire last month, with defensive measures also being put in place amid fears that Trump's statements could trigger a "miscalculation" by Iran and prompt it to strike first.

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🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — United States Congressional Research Service has issued a report claiming to be the total amount of US military aircrafts destroyed & damaged by Iran during the Iran War.

Destroyed:
24x MQ-9A "Reaper" UCAVs shot down by Iranian air defenses throughout the American-Israeli bombing campaign
4x F-15E "Strike Eagle" fighter jets; three shot down by Kuwaiti friendly fire on March 2, one shot down by Iranian air defenses on April 3
2x MC-130J "Commando II" special operations transport aircrafts, destroyed on the ground amidst the operation to rescue a stranded F-15E WSO on April 3
1x A-10C "Thundercat II" attack aircraft, shot down by Iranian air defenses on April 3
1x KC-135R/T "Stratotanker" aerial refueling aircraft, crashed due to an alleged friendly collision incident
1x MQ-4C "Triton", crashed in a "mishap" into the Persian Gulf on April 9. This "mishap" was almost certainly the work of Iranian air defenses.

Damaged:
6x KC-135R/T "Stratotanker" aerial refueling aircrafts; one damaged by an alleged aerial collision incident on March 12, and five damaged by an Iranian missile strike against Prince Sultan Air Base on March 14.
1x E-3G "Sentry" AWACS aircraft, "damaged" by a combined Iranian missile & drone strike against Prince Sultan Air Base on March 27.
1x F-35A "Lightning II" stealth fighter jet, struck by Iranian air defenses on March 19
1x HH-60W "Jolly Green II" CSAR helicopter, damaged by Iranian small-arms fire on April 3
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🇳🇬🇺🇸🌍❌🏴‍☠️- According to the Nigerian Armed Forces HQ, joint strikes conducted in coordination with U.S. AFRICOM have eliminated 175 ISWAP terrorists as of today. ➡️ Senior figures killed include Abd-al Wahhab, Abu Musa al-Mangawi, and Abu al-Muthanna al…
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🇳🇬🇺🇸🌍❌🏴‍☠️- The Nigerian Armed Forces HQ has released additional footage of Joint Nigerian/U.S. operations in Northeastern Nigeria against ISWAP terrorists.

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🇮🇷❌🇺🇸 — United States Congressional Research Service has issued a report claiming to be the total amount of US military aircrafts destroyed & damaged by Iran during the Iran War. Destroyed: 24x MQ-9A "Reaper" UCAVs shot down by Iranian air defenses throughout…
🇮🇷🇺🇸 — The "damaged" E-3G in question. This alone raises serious questions.

Several aircrafts are also missing, including an additional damaged E-3G, one damaged KC-46A "Pegasus" aerial refueling aircraft, one more shot down MQ-9A "Reaper" UCAV, and several additional damaged/destroyed helicopters.

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🇺🇸🇺🇸- Trojan Footprint 2026, the largest U.S. Special Operations Forces-led exercise in Europe, commenced on May 12th, bringing together approximately 1,000 U.S. service members and 2,000 Special Operations Forces from 23 NATO allies and partner nations across 10 countries over 10 days.

➡️ The exercise is designed to test the alliance's readiness to counter hybrid threats, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and infiltration, with the unnamed adversary widely understood to be Russia. Participating nations include Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Poland, and Romania, alongside British, Swiss, and Georgian forces.

➡️ Notable activities include a joint US-Greek special forces operation off the coast of Greece involving parachute drops into the sea and a simulated assault on an enemy base, as well as land and maritime operations in Georgia under the sub-exercise "Black Sea Gateway 2026."

➡️ The exercise integrates all branches of the U.S. military with allied nations, focusing on interoperability, hybrid threat response, and SOF integration with conventional forces.

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#BREAKING
⚡️🇱🇧🇱🇧❌🇮🇱 - Following successive FPV attacks on the IDF's "226th (Nesher)" Brigade headquarters in southern Lebanon's Bayada, the IDF withdrew from the building on the 11th of May, leaving behind their flag.

Hezbollah published a video displaying all the FPV attacks done to the building, alongside the downing of the flag using an FPV drone on the 17th of May.
📝 The video states:
Bayada does not welcome you.


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🇷🇺- Images and footage of the Su-57D were released today by Rostec, Russia's state-owned defence and industrial conglomerate, offering the first public look at the new two-seat variant.

➡️ The Sukhoi Design Bureau has developed the aircraft, with the released imagery showing an enlarged cockpit section and a longer canopy. The concept of a two-seat Su-57 was previously explored under the joint Russian-Indian Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) program in the 2010s, under which Russia's United Aircraft Corporation and India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) signed an agreement for joint development and production.

➡️ It is Russia's first aircraft designed with stealth technology and incorporates supermaneuverability, supercruise, integrated avionics, and a large payload capacity. The US has indicated it will become nuclear-capable via a forthcoming missile similar to the Kinzhal. The aircraft is intended to succeed the MiG-29 and Su-27 in Russian service and has been marketed for export.

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