Geopolitics Watch
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Open-source intelligence news media focusing on worldwide conflicts and geopolitics.

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🇷🇺- Russia has successfully test launched the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), known by NATO as "Satan II," from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome at 11:15 Moscow time on Today.

➡️ The missile struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula approximately 30 minutes later.

➡️ The RS-28 Sarmat is Russia's new nuclear-capable heavy ICBM, designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads and developed to replace the Soviet-era R-36 system, first unveiled by Putin in 2018.

➡️ Russian officials say the missile has an extremely long range and can approach targets via unconventional flight paths, including routes over the South Pole.

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⚡️🇱🇧🇱🇧🇮🇱 - Hezbollah announced targeting 2 Merkava tanks using "appropriate weapons", destroying at least 1 of them and setting it ablaze in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' at 16:00 and 18:00.

At 17:16, an IDF Infantry force fortifying in a building was struck by an FPV drone in the town.


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🇮🇷🇮🇱- The Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei:
If Isreal makes a mistake and gives us a pretext, Iran’s armed forces will make the best possible use of it!


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🇾🇪- Unconfirmed reports of an explosion heard in Sana'a, Yemen.

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🇸🇦🇮🇷- According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia carried out a series of "unpublicized" strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks on the kingdom during the recent war, according to two Western officials and two Iranian officials.

➡️Saudi Arabia informed Iran of the strikes in advance, which was followed by intensive diplomatic exchanges and Saudi warnings of further retaliation, ultimately leading to an understanding between the two countries to reduce tensions and pursue de-escalation.

➡️ Neither the Saudi nor Iranian foreign ministries directly addressed the matter when approached for comment.
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🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳- Donald Trump boarded Air Force One 20 minutes ago and is getting ready to take off to Beijing, China.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷- According to NBC News, the US military is considering renaming its conflict with Iran "Operation Sledgehammer" should the ceasefire collapse and President Trump choose to resume major combat operations, replacing the previous designation "Operation Epic Fury."

➡️ The name change would also allow the administration to effectively restart the 60 day congressional authorisation clock under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, as the White House would argue it constitutes a new operation.

➡️ Trump has not yet ordered a resumption of hostilities, with officials noting that the ongoing blockade is currently providing leverage without requiring major military action, though one official warned that "the status quo will not persist."

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🇾🇪- Unconfirmed reports of an explosion heard in Sana'a, Yemen. @GeoPWatch
🇾🇪- The explosion was unrelated to any attacks on Yemen and all aggression inside of Sana'a has ceased.

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🇺🇸 — One USAF B-1B "Lancer" strategic bomber from RAF Fairford, UK is flying eastwards above the Mediterranean Sea with its transponder enabled.

These flights are regularly conducted and do not mean an imminent attack against Iran, but they are usually conducted with transponders disabled. Its purpose is likely for a show-of-force against Iran, similar to transponder-enabled fighter jets & strategic aviation flying near Venezuela in the weeks and days before the abduction of Nicolas Maduro.
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🇮🇷🇰🇼- Kuwait's Ministry of Interior announced today that four individuals arrested for attempting to infiltrate Kuwait by sea have confessed to being members of Iran's IRGC. ➡️ The suspects were identified as naval Captains Amir Hussein Zaraei and Abdulsamad…
🇮🇷🇰🇼- Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has flatly rejected Kuwait's claims that Iran was planning hostile actions against the country, dismissing them as entirely baseless.

➡️ Iran condemned what it described as the Kuwaiti government's exploitation of the incident for political propaganda, stating that the four Iranian nationals were conducting a routine maritime patrol and had entered Kuwaiti waters solely due to a navigation system malfunction.

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🇮🇷- The earthquake that took place in Tehran was a 4.5 magnitude earthquake.

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🇮🇷- The earthquake that took place in Tehran was a 4.5 magnitude earthquake. @GeoPWatch
🇮🇷- There was another earthquake reported in Tehran 2 hours ago, which got 3.4 on the Richter scale.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:
When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement. They are aiding and abetting the enemy! All it does is give Iran false hope when none should exist. These are American cowards that are rooting against our Country. Iran had 159 ships in their Navy — Every single ship is now resting at the bottom of the sea. They have no Navy, their Air Force is gone, all Technology is gone, their “leaders” are no longer with us, and the Country is an Economic Disaster. Only Losers, Ingrates, and Fools are able to make a case against America! President DONALD J. TRUMP


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🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱- The Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei:
To every decent human being—regardless of religion, ethnicity, nationality, race, or any other distinction,

To Muslims, Jews, Christians, Sikhs, Hindus, Buddhists, and all others of faith,

And to those who follow no formal religion but hold deeply to the universal values of peace, justice, and human dignity:

The U.S. - Israel launched this war of aggression on 28 February 2026, for a second time in less than a year, while Iran-U.S. were engaged in diplomatic negotiations.

This is not merely a war over land, resources, or geopolitics. This is a war that will determine the very meaning of 'good' and 'evil' in our time and for future.

What has been unleashed upon our peace-loving nation is not just another conflict. On one side stand those who delight in violating every law of war and basic human decency—those who murder for sport, who slaughter children to torment their families, who fire newest missiles at women’s sports halls simply to test their destructive power.

This is a war between those who boast of torpedoing unarmed vessels “for more fun,” and those who go to extraordinary lengths to protect innocent lives.

This is a war between professional liars who fabricate justifications for atrocity, and a proud people who defend their homeland and human dignity relying solely on their own strength and resolve.

This is a war between those whose decisions are shadowed by moral compromise, and those who act with a clear conscience.

This is a defining struggle for the future of humankind. It will decide whether civilization’s hard-won achievements—human rights, the rule of law, and basic morality—will survive or be swept away.

We must choose:

Do we accept a world ruled by modern slave masters—arrogant, domineering, and unaccountable—who govern through coercion, lies, and extortion?
Or do we stand for a world grounded in respect, justice, peace, and human dignity?

Humanity’s conscience is not yet dead. But in times like these, silence is complicity with evil.

If you reject the path of barbarism and domination, then find the moral courage to speak, to act, and to stand on the right side of history—before the world descends into an abyss of lawlessness and subjugation.

The choice is yours.
And history will remember.


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🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱- The Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei: To every decent human being—regardless of religion, ethnicity, nationality, race, or any other distinction, To Muslims, Jews, Christians, Sikhs, Hindus, Buddhists, and all others of…
📝- The statement condemns the US/Israeli military campaign against Iran, which was launched on February 28th, during ongoing diplomatic negotiations.

➡️ It frames the conflict as a fundamental struggle between good and evil, portraying Iran as a nation defending its dignity and sovereignty against what it describes as deliberate violations of international law and human decency by the opposing side.

➡️ The statement calls on the global community to reject what it characterizes as a world governed by coercion and domination and to instead stand for justice, human rights, and the rule of law, warning that silence in the face of such actions amounts to complicity.

➡️ It concludes by urging people of conscience worldwide to speak out and act before the world descends into lawlessness.

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🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱- According to the New York Times citing classified US intelligence estimates, despite the US/Israeli air campaign, intelligence assessments indicate Iran has retained significant missile capabilities. Of the 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, 30 have been restored to operational status, with only three remaining completely inaccessible.

➡️ Iran still fields around 70% of its pre-war mobile launchers and has retained approximately 70% of its overall missile stockpile, comprising both ballistic and cruise missiles. Nationwide, Iran has regained access to roughly 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities, now assessed as partially or fully operational.

➡️ The assessments are particularly concerning given the threat these sites pose to US warships and oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with many sites capable of deploying mobile launchers or firing directly from existing launchpads.

➡️ Meanwhile, the US expended enormous quantities of munitions during the conflict, including approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles, over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, and more than 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles.

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🇺🇸🇺🇸- Images released by U.S. Central Command show F/A-18 Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers launching from the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) as the carrier operates in the Arabian Sea.

Images were taken on May 9th.


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