Geopolitics Watch

🇮🇱❌🇱🇧🇱🇧- The Lebanese Army announced the death of First Lieutenant Muhammad Ali Obeid who was killed today in an IAF airstrike in the town of Jibchit, southern Lebanon.

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🇮🇷 — Washington Post correspondent for diplomacy & national security John Hudson, citing a confidential CIA analysis, reports that the CIA believes Iran can survive the ongoing U.S. Navy blockade for at least 3-4 months without severe economic hardship.…

🇺🇸- Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, while testifying before the Senate, refused to answer whether or not Iran has 70-75% of their missile and drone capabilities intact and said he did not read the reports that said they had.

➡️ He also stated that all information regarding the matter was classified although every time Donald Trump speaks he mentions that they only have around 20% intact.

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🇮🇷❌🇺🇸- According to Al-Jazeera's Ali Hashem, a well informed source on the Iran/US negotiations has revealed that the Iranian negotiating team has been issued five conditions that must be met before any discussions on the nuclear file can begin.

These conditions are: [Click to Expand]

An end to the war on all fronts,

The lifting of all sanctions,

The release of frozen assets,

Compensation for war damages and losses,

Recognition of Iran's sovereign right over the Strait of Hormuz.

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Hezbollah announced targeting an IDF Infantry Force fortifying within a building using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' at 6:10.

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⚡️🇱🇧🇱🇧❌🇮🇱 - Hezbollah published footage of previously announced operation targeting an IDF Infantry soldier fortifying in a building using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' yesterday.

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🇷🇺- Russia has successfully test launched the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), known by NATO as "Satan II," from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome at 11:15 Moscow time on Today.

➡️ The missile struck its designated target at the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula approximately 30 minutes later.

➡️ The RS-28 Sarmat is Russia's new nuclear-capable heavy ICBM, designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads and developed to replace the Soviet-era R-36 system, first unveiled by Putin in 2018.

➡️ Russian officials say the missile has an extremely long range and can approach targets via unconventional flight paths, including routes over the South Pole.

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🇮🇱 - Hezbollah announced targeting 2 Merkava tanks using "appropriate weapons", destroying at least 1 of them and setting it ablaze in southern Lebanon's 'Taybeh' at 16:00 and 18:00.

At 17:16, an IDF Infantry force fortifying in a building was struck by an FPV drone in the town.

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🇮🇱- The Spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei:

If Isreal makes a mistake and gives us a pretext, Iran’s armed forces will make the best possible use of it!

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🇾🇪- Unconfirmed reports of an explosion heard in Sana'a, Yemen.

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🇸🇦❌🇮🇷- According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia carried out a series of "unpublicized" strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks on the kingdom during the recent war, according to two Western officials and two Iranian officials.

➡️Saudi Arabia informed Iran of the strikes in advance, which was followed by intensive diplomatic exchanges and Saudi warnings of further retaliation, ultimately leading to an understanding between the two countries to reduce tensions and pursue de-escalation.

➡️ Neither the Saudi nor Iranian foreign ministries directly addressed the matter when approached for comment.

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🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳- Donald Trump boarded Air Force One 20 minutes ago and is getting ready to take off to Beijing, China.

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🇺🇸❌🇮🇷- According to NBC News, the US military is considering renaming its conflict with Iran "Operation Sledgehammer" should the ceasefire collapse and President Trump choose to resume major combat operations, replacing the previous designation "Operation Epic Fury."

➡️ The name change would also allow the administration to effectively restart the 60 day congressional authorisation clock under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, as the White House would argue it constitutes a new operation.

➡️ Trump has not yet ordered a resumption of hostilities, with officials noting that the ongoing blockade is currently providing leverage without requiring major military action, though one official warned that "the status quo will not persist."

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🇾🇪- Unconfirmed reports of an explosion heard in Sana'a, Yemen. @GeoPWatch

🇾🇪- The explosion was unrelated to any attacks on Yemen and all aggression inside of Sana'a has ceased.

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— One USAF B-1B "Lancer" strategic bomber from RAF Fairford, UK is flying eastwards above the Mediterranean Sea with its transponder enabled.

These flights are regularly conducted and do not mean an imminent attack against Iran, but they are usually conducted with transponders disabled. Its purpose is likely for a show-of-force against Iran, similar to transponder-enabled fighter jets & strategic aviation flying near Venezuela in the weeks and days before the abduction of Nicolas Maduro.

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🇰🇼- Kuwait's Ministry of Interior announced today that four individuals arrested for attempting to infiltrate Kuwait by sea have confessed to being members of Iran's IRGC. ➡️ The suspects were identified as naval Captains Amir Hussein Zaraei and Abdulsamad…

🇮🇷❌🇰🇼- Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has flatly rejected Kuwait's claims that Iran was planning hostile actions against the country, dismissing them as entirely baseless.

➡️ Iran condemned what it described as the Kuwaiti government's exploitation of the incident for political propaganda, stating that the four Iranian nationals were conducting a routine maritime patrol and had entered Kuwaiti waters solely due to a navigation system malfunction.

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🇮🇷- The earthquake that took place in Tehran was a 4.5 magnitude earthquake.

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🇮🇷- The earthquake that took place in Tehran was a 4.5 magnitude earthquake. @GeoPWatch

🇮🇷- There was another earthquake reported in Tehran 2 hours ago, which got 3.4 on the Richter scale.

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🇺🇸❌🇮🇷- Donald Trump posted on Truth Social:

When the Fake News says that the Iranian enemy is doing well, Militarily, against us, it’s virtual TREASON in that it is such a false, and even preposterous, statement. They are aiding and abetting the enemy! All it does is give Iran false hope when none should exist. These are American cowards that are rooting against our Country. Iran had 159 ships in their Navy — Every single ship is now resting at the bottom of the sea. They have no Navy, their Air Force is gone, all Technology is gone, their “leaders” are no longer with us, and the Country is an Economic Disaster. Only Losers, Ingrates, and Fools are able to make a case against America! President DONALD J. TRUMP

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