Geopolitics Watch
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Geopolitics Watch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” IRGC ballistic missile launch towards central Israel. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” Red Alerts in Jerusalem.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” Red Alerts near Ashdod.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” Impact in Beit Shemesh.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Power outages reported in parts of Tehran following USAF-IAF airstrikes against the city.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” Impact in Beit Shemesh. @GeoPWatch
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” CCTV footage showing a direct impact in Beit Shemesh.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Power outages reported in parts of Tehran following USAF-IAF airstrikes against the city. @GeoPWatch
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” Power has been restored in Tehran; an electric substation was damaged during USAF-IAF airstrikes.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ โ€” Financial Times reports that two Russian ships carrying oil and gas are on their way to Cuba, despite US pressures and sanctions under Trump's administration. โžก๏ธThese shipments come at a time when Cuba is facing a severe energy crisis, as evidencedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บ - Russian Tanker delivered a humanitarian cargo of 700,000 barrels of oil to Cuba despite the US blockade.

The Cuban electric grid, which is 40% reliant on diesel, collapsed twice in the last month.

The US Coast Guard, which would have been called upon to intercept the Russian tanker, is currently working without pay due to partial government shutdown affecting the Department of Homeland Security.

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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), one of the main proponents behind the Iran War, made a bizaare post on X claiming to have spent the day shooting at a gun range in South Carolina.

Today, Lindsey Graham was photographed at Walt Disney World during the middle of a government shutdown. Graham was also holding a child's toy at Walt Disney World despite not having any children. Why Graham felt the need to lie about this is a mystery.


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๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ โ€” IDF has announced the death of four soldiers in southern Lebanon. One of the soldiers' identities has not been publicly released.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ผ - The war in Iran may cut the GCC GDP by up to 8%, or $200 billion, according to a study by UN.
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑ - The US has unofficially asked to 'borrow' one of Poland's two Patriot Air Defense batteries for use in the Middle East, Polish outlet Rzeczpospolita reported.

Although no official decisions have been made, Poland last year insisted that it will not transfer its Patriots system elsewhere.

The US early in the war also 'borrowed' parts of THAAD systems from South Korea.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿšซ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ - Italy denied the US access to its Sigonella air base.

The US planned to have a stopover at Sigonella on the way to the Middle East without prior consultation with Italy. The Italian Defense Minister, a member of the right wing Forza Italia party, denied the permission after learning the flights were not in accordance with Italy's treaty with the US.

This is but the latest snub President Trump received from his ideological allies in Europe. Yesterday, the chairman of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) called for the withdrawal of US troops from Germany.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท โ€” American Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen:
Netanyahu said a few days ago that he had been waiting for forty years to reach this stage with Iran.

It took him forty years to find an American president who was stupid enough to drag America into this war.


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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช โ€” The UAE tried to avoid a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, so it resorted to the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline (ADCOP), a pipeline established in 2012 as an emergency plan in case of a blockade in Hormuz, to be able to export oil without passing through the strait.

โžก๏ธThe pipeline is 380 km long and can transport 1.5 million barrels of oil per day by pumping crude from the Habshan fields in Abu Dhabi to the Fujairah port on the Gulf of Oman (i.e., completely outside the Strait of Hormuz), where the oil is then loaded onto ships.

โžก๏ธIran targeted the pipeline's pumping stations, and the UAE responded by confiscating billions of dollars in Iranian assets, in addition to canceling all residence permits and golden visas.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Unofficial local Ukrainian pages reports that an Ukrainian officer who was deployed in the UAE to train allies countries to intercept Iranian drones was killed in an Iranian attack.

โžก๏ธIRGC spokesman claimed a few days ago that they've targeted a depot related to Ukrainian military in the UAE, adding that Ukrainian soldiers deployed there might have been killed.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถโ€” The Al-Waleed border crossing between Syria and Iraq was opened today, 500 Iraqi oil tankers are expected to cross it daily.

โžก๏ธThis land crossing today coincided with statements by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein:
Iraqi ships cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's promises about exceptions are false.


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๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐโ˜ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท - China and Pakistan released a joint five-point initiative to end the war in Iran.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿค๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that their defense partnership with the U.S. has had a significant impact in protecting Qatar's resources.

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ“ž๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ โ€” Netanyahu stated that after the war, the issue of Hormuz should be resolved through pipelines from Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean Sea, passing through Israel.

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡พSyrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa yesterday, suggested a similar idea, of pipeline passing from the gulf through Syria to Europe.

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โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah announces engaging with an IDF advancing force using Rifles, Machine guns and RPGs, and the destruction of a "Merkava" tank set ablaze in southern Lebanon's 'Aainata' at 12:00. At 16:50, a "Merkava" tank was struck with an IED, destroyingโ€ฆ
โšก๏ธ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡งโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ - Hezbollah announces targeting a "Merkava" using an FPV drone in southern Lebanon's 'Aainata' at 14:30.

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#BREAKING ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโŒ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ทNew reporting suggests President Trump has privately signaled heโ€™s ready to wrap up the war with Iranโ€”even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

โžก๏ธ Behind the scenes, the calculation is simple: reopening the strait by force would drag the U.S. into a longer, riskier campaign that the White House doesnโ€™t want.

โžก๏ธ Instead, the current objective is to cripple Iranโ€™s military capacity fastโ€”its navy, missile stockpiles, and defense infrastructureโ€”then step back and shift the fight into diplomacy.

โžก๏ธ In other words: hit hard, declare success, and leave the shipping problem for later.

โžก๏ธ Officials reportedly hope that once the shooting slows, pressure on Tehranโ€”combined with involvement from European and Gulf alliesโ€”will eventually reopen the waterway without the U.S. carrying the full burden.

โš ๏ธThe risk is obvious however The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most critical chokepoints on the planet. Leaving it partially closed could keep global energy markets unstable even after the war โ€œends.โ€

โžก๏ธ This isnโ€™t a clean victory strategy itโ€™s a calculated gamble.

Source: The Wall Street Journal


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