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With @KevinMurphs Chief Currency Analyst at @ForexTradingExperts1

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Taking small bites at key turning points πŸ”‘

One of the major weaknesses of trading key macro fundamentals is that markets can move violently in one direction in a seemingly β€˜irrational’ way. So, if you have a bias for a currency or instrument to trade it makes sense to only do so when you can clearly align the technicals to manage your risk.

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bit.ly/HYCMLab_Nov18
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πŸ“ˆπŸThe UK’s Autumn Budget: What it means for the GBPUSD?

Last week’s UK budget marks a return to austerity. The key sentiment of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s statement was that the UK now intends to live within its means. There were ultimately very few surprises as a strict budget had already been priced into the GBP, since Jeremy Hunt’s appointment as UK chancellor.

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bit.ly/HYCMLab-21Nov
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πŸ“ˆπŸThe UK’s Autumn Budget: What it means for the GBPUSD?

Last week’s UK budget marks a return to austerity. The key sentiment of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s statement was that the UK now intends to live within its means. There were ultimately very few surprises as a strict budget had already been priced into the GBP, since Jeremy Hunt’s appointment as UK chancellor.

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bit.ly/HYCMLab-21Nov
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🏘️ RBNZ rate decision: Housing market drag?

On November 1 New Zealand house prices showed the first sign of strain with their first annual fall in more than 11 years. Prices fell 0.6% from the previous year and values fell for a 7th consecutive month. This is due to the affordability challenge for buyers either getting new or applying for extensions to their mortgages. According to Bloomberg, some economists are projecting a 13% fall in house prices this year with further falls in 2023 and a peak-to-trough slump of 18-20%. The impact of higher interest rates is being felt.

So, will this slow down the RBNZ?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-22Nov
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Has #Bitcoin triggered a Magazine Cover Indicator buy signal?

The β€˜magazine cover indicator’ is the belief that by the time an instrument reaches the front page of a major magazine cover it is a contrarian indicator. So, if the front page of the magazine speaks about a great bull market, is it a time to sell? If the front page speaks of a great bear market is it a time to buy?

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-23Nov
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πŸ’‘A simple solution for trading uncertain markets

Sometimes the medium-term picture is uncertain for financial markets. Right now is one of those times. Has US inflation peaked? Too early to tell. Is the US housing sector showing major signs of serious distress? The jury is out. Will the Fed signal a pause at its December meeting? Too difficult to make even a reasonable guess. So, when markets are uncertain like this, which they often can be, what is the best thing to do? One way is to trade short-term catalysts.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-24Nov
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🎯#Siemens seasonals in focus

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Siemens is a German multinational conglomerate corporation and the largest industrial manufacturing company in Europe. It holds around a 7% weighting in the DAX.

Siemen’s latest earnings in November were strong. The revenue beat estimates at 20.57 billion vs the 19.13 billion expected. Also, orders came in very strong at 21.82 billion vs the 19.89 billion expected. The CEO also saw strong demand for hardware continuing as well as software.

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https://bit.ly/HYCMLab-24NOV
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❄️ Why winter buying favours stocks?

Dont miss our article with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph on Investment Week
It is a widely accepted belief that stocks perform better during the winter than in summer.
Indeed, according to data, the average return in the stock markets during the winter months is 7%, versus around 2% during the summer. So, why might this be the case?

For one, as investors return from their summer holidays, new strategies are deployed, businesses tax years conclude, and the market is flooded with capital, there is simply more money in the market.

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https://bit.ly/3F1zEIG
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πŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡³πŸ‡ΏRBNZ considered a 100bps hike

The RBNZ met this week and took a decidedly hawkish tone. The RBNZ recognises that annual inflation remains too high at 7.2% and it hiked by 75bps to 4.25%. This 75 bps was expected, but the surprise was that the RBNZ now sees itself needing to hike interest rates at a faster pace.

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visit.hycm.eu/Nov25
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🏰 Time for Disney magic?

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights with the Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Disney reported earlier this month that advertiser interest has been strong for the new-ad-supported Disney+ tier. Furthermore, the appointment of former Chairman & CEO Bob Iger as Chief Executive has been welcomed by many as a positive move sending shares sharply higher on the news. So, does this mean that things are looking good for Disney shares?

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https://visit.hycm.eu/25NOV
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πŸ‘€All eyes on US inflation this week

It’s all about inflation this week, US inflation specifically. In order to see the significance of Thursday’s PCE print we need to see the context of the US inflation story. So, this article will give a broad skeleton on that context and show what the key focus is going to be. There are finer points to this context that this piece will not focus on in the interests of time considerations.

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https://visit.hycm.eu/HYCMLab-Nov25
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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³What are President Xi’s options with China’s Covid protests?
The latest protests in China have been widespread and show a population tired of COVID Zero lockdowns.

In China’s authoritarian state such protests against Party policy are rare and carry strict penalties. So, these protests are a big challenge to President Xi. What will he do next? How will that impact markets?

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https://visit.hycm.eu/Nov29
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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³China’s press conference confirms a Covid β€˜pivot’ in all but name

Back in May, the outlook for China exiting its Covid-Zero looked like it was going to be a long draw out affair. Weaker hospital infrastructure, lack of vaccination of the elderly, and the lack of an endgame policy, all meant the retreat was going to be gradual rather than fast for China. However, some things have been changing.

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https://visit.hycm.eu/Dec1
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πŸ“ˆπŸ“‰Crescat Capital: Finally time for its view to cash in?

Crescat Capital has been bullish on gold for a long time. It is a conviction that has been costing the company in the recent climate with USD strength, rising yields, and rising real yields – all negative headwinds for gold. You can see its precious metals hedge fund is down -23.2% year to date.

However, is the tide now turning? Crescat makes a powerful argument in its latest newsletter based on the recessionary risk for the US and the historical reaction of gold to two prior recessions it considers comparable to today.

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https://visit.hycm.eu/Dec2
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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦ BoC heading for a 25bps hike?
Next week the Bank of Canada meets and it will be an interesting meeting to see how confident the BoC is surrounding a potential slowdown coming for Canadian economic activity.

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https://visit.hycm.eu/Dec5
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✨ Glittering gold ✨

Don't miss the latest Seasonal Insights on #Gold with Chief Market Analyst Kevin Murph

Gold has long been touted as an inflation hedge, but now really could be the time for gold to shine. If it does, then there are some very strong seasonals ahead for the precious metal.

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visit.hycm.eu/DEC5

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πŸ—’οΈUsing sentiment surveys like the American Association of Individual Investors

We have covered the impact of the magazine cover indicator before here. Another helpful sentiment indicator is also one of the most easily accessible and popular sentiment surveys – the American Association of Individual Investors. This is a weekly survey, free to access, where they ask individual investors this one simple question, β€˜Do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral), or down (bearish)?’ The results are then collected and displayed on the AAII’s website. Here are the results from the last few weeks.

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https://visit.hycm.eu/Dec6
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