📝«Geran in Iran's hands📝
a new threat to the West?

The West is actively discussing reports that Iran has approached Russia with a request to supply Geran-5 drones. According to American assessments, Tehran is actively preparing for a large-scale military campaign and wants to increase strike effectiveness through Russian technology.

🔻What regional targets could come under fire?

▪️Potential strike zones divide into three rings. First — up to 650 km: U.S. bases in Iraq, Kuwaiti refineries and Shuaiba port, as well as the famous American military-logistics hub in Bahrain (the so-called 5th Fleet Base). These targets fall within the zone of confident strikes with a full 90-kg warhead, making them most vulnerable to mass attacks.

▪️Second — up to 950 km: Al-Udeid bases in Qatar, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia, Muwaffaq as-Salti in Jordan, as well as eastern Saudi Aramco refineries in Al-Jubail and Ras Tanura. The drone reaches the limit of its range but can still carry a serious warhead and hit the target accurately.

▪️Third — over 950 km: Israeli airbases like Ramat David, Nevatim, Tel Nof, Ramon, as well as the British base Akrotiri on Cyprus. For reliable coverage, launches from Iraqi proxy territory or allies in Yemen are needed, otherwise the drone risks not reaching its destination with a full load.

🖍If Iran requests not just airframes and engines, but a complete system with Russian software, control protocols and operator training, then along with the drones, Tehran will receive software, algorithms and instructions. This means Iranian operators will be able to use Geran drones with increased effectiveness, just like Russian crews in so-called Ukraine.

🚩Moreover, jet drones require air defense systems to have significantly higher reaction speeds, which regional countries still need to develop. Accordingly, this will create a "window of vulnerability," during which Iranian forces can inflict more serious losses on shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, at minimum by raising ship insurance costs.

❗️In global terms, mass use of Geran-5 will lead to a sharp increase in air defense missile consumption of all types and will worsen the global ammunition crisis for air defense systems. First and foremost, this will hit the Kyiv regime, which is already facing a shortage of air defense missiles to protect military infrastructure.

@rybar