Good afternoon and as we look to wrap up another volatile week, all eyes are on weekend developments from the emerging ceasefire negotiations taking place between the US, Israel and Iran. We have seen a mix of client activity, skewed to better sellers, as we approach what we think could feel like a final capitulary leg as markets look for a geopolitical de-escalation going into summer.
Activity across both spot and options has been primarily reactive to headline driven catalysts and token specific narratives. Volatility continues to bleed lower as most traders are back to wait and see mode however we have seen sporadic call buying within BTC. Skewed has moved strongly towards calls over the last few sessions and we think optionally is relatively cheap here and like owning straddles and strangles.
The relative strength of BTC and HYPE has not gone unnoticed, with the former largely correlated with consistent buying from Saylor (STRC dynamics) and ETF inflow (Morgan Stanley now joins the fun). HYPE continues to dominate mindshare as the success of HIP3 continues and the market is continuing to price in the eventual mainnet release of HIP4 in the coming weeks to months. Given where sentiment is, and how participants have been slow to chase, we imagine this can fuel a broader move next week assuming the weekends negotiations go according to plan. Should also add that we've had a continued buyer of ZAMA and solid two way flow in CC along with pockets of activity in NEAR, TAO, NIGHT and SOL.
Activity across both spot and options has been primarily reactive to headline driven catalysts and token specific narratives. Volatility continues to bleed lower as most traders are back to wait and see mode however we have seen sporadic call buying within BTC. Skewed has moved strongly towards calls over the last few sessions and we think optionally is relatively cheap here and like owning straddles and strangles.
The relative strength of BTC and HYPE has not gone unnoticed, with the former largely correlated with consistent buying from Saylor (STRC dynamics) and ETF inflow (Morgan Stanley now joins the fun). HYPE continues to dominate mindshare as the success of HIP3 continues and the market is continuing to price in the eventual mainnet release of HIP4 in the coming weeks to months. Given where sentiment is, and how participants have been slow to chase, we imagine this can fuel a broader move next week assuming the weekends negotiations go according to plan. Should also add that we've had a continued buyer of ZAMA and solid two way flow in CC along with pockets of activity in NEAR, TAO, NIGHT and SOL.
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Good morning - some color from the OTC desk.
Seeing life come back to crypto as it looks like Trump is pushing for a nearer term end to the conflict. We have a number of clients adding risk here, as funding rates continue to normalize from negative territory. HYPE appears to still be one of the most favored coins out there, along with CC and ZAMA, both listed overnight on Korean exchanges. Elsewhere, we're seeing some selling in SOL into BTC, a sign of late capitulators. We continue to see positive spot/vol correlation in ETH and solid two way flow in BTC. Covered call sellers are rolling up and out and overall risk appetite is increasing. Overall, we still believe optionality is cheap and a good way to build back market exposure.
As the market attempts to break its range, all eyes on STRC volume today heading into ex-dividend date as Saylor continues to bid.
We remain cautious so long as geopolitical risk remains on the table, however the way the market works right now, patience can leave you behind fairly quick.
Seeing life come back to crypto as it looks like Trump is pushing for a nearer term end to the conflict. We have a number of clients adding risk here, as funding rates continue to normalize from negative territory. HYPE appears to still be one of the most favored coins out there, along with CC and ZAMA, both listed overnight on Korean exchanges. Elsewhere, we're seeing some selling in SOL into BTC, a sign of late capitulators. We continue to see positive spot/vol correlation in ETH and solid two way flow in BTC. Covered call sellers are rolling up and out and overall risk appetite is increasing. Overall, we still believe optionality is cheap and a good way to build back market exposure.
As the market attempts to break its range, all eyes on STRC volume today heading into ex-dividend date as Saylor continues to bid.
We remain cautious so long as geopolitical risk remains on the table, however the way the market works right now, patience can leave you behind fairly quick.
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Market Update - April 16th, 2026
Cautious optimism is back this week. The risk tone has improved on geopolitical de-escalation although the equity and commodity reactions feel somewhat exaggerated on a pretty thin catalyst (no real agreement reached yet). Crypto is still lagging the broader tape, with SPX printing new ATHs yesterday while majors grind sideways.
Broader activity picked up meaningfully with exchange volumes up WoW and the BTC to non-BTC volume mix on Binance sits at its lowest level since the start of the year. Client flows have been the most balanced we've seen since early March. HYPE continues to lead client interest, with TAO, NEAR, CC, ZAMA and SOL broadening the list. While the rally has seen a good bit of selling, most of it is rotation rather than capitulation (which is what we saw in late Q4 and early Q1).
Call spread buying has picked up in both BTC and ETH over the last couple of sessions. Hedging demand has eased substantially, with skew near its 30-day highs. Upside demand is heavier in ETH, driven by aggressive short covering and new positioning. Vols are still relatively cheap in our view, and we like expressing the asymmetry via outright calls or call spreads.
Funding rates across majors continue to struggle breaking into positive territory, with the 1w average at -2.4%. Despite the short covering we've seen, funding still suggests there's room to squeeze. If the market catches an extended bid, we expect rates to follow shortly after.
Demand for leverage to bid alts has been a notable theme, specifically in MON, NEAR, and XPL. We've also seen interest in fixed-term BTC levered long structures. Fixed-term hedges on select alts continue to be a driver, particularly SOL and POL.
Onchain rates sit at historically low levels, hovering around 3.5% across major money markets, with the demand side looking thin. We could see demand pick up as onchain STRC products like sUSDat grow in TVL and loopers come in to take up supply.
With US equities at ATHs again and positioning relatively light, the pain trade likely remains continued relief into next week, potentially an existential crisis for bears as markets shake off the tail risks. That said, we're not out of the woods and markets are likely to remain headline-driven for the next few weeks as we grapple with what comes next.
Cautious optimism is back this week. The risk tone has improved on geopolitical de-escalation although the equity and commodity reactions feel somewhat exaggerated on a pretty thin catalyst (no real agreement reached yet). Crypto is still lagging the broader tape, with SPX printing new ATHs yesterday while majors grind sideways.
Broader activity picked up meaningfully with exchange volumes up WoW and the BTC to non-BTC volume mix on Binance sits at its lowest level since the start of the year. Client flows have been the most balanced we've seen since early March. HYPE continues to lead client interest, with TAO, NEAR, CC, ZAMA and SOL broadening the list. While the rally has seen a good bit of selling, most of it is rotation rather than capitulation (which is what we saw in late Q4 and early Q1).
Call spread buying has picked up in both BTC and ETH over the last couple of sessions. Hedging demand has eased substantially, with skew near its 30-day highs. Upside demand is heavier in ETH, driven by aggressive short covering and new positioning. Vols are still relatively cheap in our view, and we like expressing the asymmetry via outright calls or call spreads.
Funding rates across majors continue to struggle breaking into positive territory, with the 1w average at -2.4%. Despite the short covering we've seen, funding still suggests there's room to squeeze. If the market catches an extended bid, we expect rates to follow shortly after.
Demand for leverage to bid alts has been a notable theme, specifically in MON, NEAR, and XPL. We've also seen interest in fixed-term BTC levered long structures. Fixed-term hedges on select alts continue to be a driver, particularly SOL and POL.
Onchain rates sit at historically low levels, hovering around 3.5% across major money markets, with the demand side looking thin. We could see demand pick up as onchain STRC products like sUSDat grow in TVL and loopers come in to take up supply.
With US equities at ATHs again and positioning relatively light, the pain trade likely remains continued relief into next week, potentially an existential crisis for bears as markets shake off the tail risks. That said, we're not out of the woods and markets are likely to remain headline-driven for the next few weeks as we grapple with what comes next.
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Good afternoon, please find attached this week's rate card for majors and stablecoins where Flowdesk is axed to borrow. Decreased ETH rates by 50bps across the curve.
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT
- TRX 6%
- POL 6%
- BCH 4%
- SHIB 3%
- XRP 3%
- XLM 3%
- ADA 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT
- TRX 6%
- POL 6%
- BCH 4%
- SHIB 3%
- XRP 3%
- XLM 3%
- ADA 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
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A note from the Flowdesk team:
Over the last six years, you've been part of building something. The trading relationships, the infrastructure we've scaled together, the markets we've helped shape. That's the story behind what we're sharing today.
In 2020, Flowdesk started with a simple idea: market making as a service. As digital asset markets matured, so did the demands of the participants operating in them. So we built accordingly.
Today, we introduce the next era of Flowdesk.
A new brand identity and website built around a single idea:
Flowdesk is the full-service digital asset institution the next era of global finance is built on.
New look. Same team. Same infrastructure. Rebuilt to match the institution we’ve become.
See it at flowdesk.co
As always, reach out to our team with any questions.
Over the last six years, you've been part of building something. The trading relationships, the infrastructure we've scaled together, the markets we've helped shape. That's the story behind what we're sharing today.
In 2020, Flowdesk started with a simple idea: market making as a service. As digital asset markets matured, so did the demands of the participants operating in them. So we built accordingly.
Today, we introduce the next era of Flowdesk.
A new brand identity and website built around a single idea:
Flowdesk is the full-service digital asset institution the next era of global finance is built on.
New look. Same team. Same infrastructure. Rebuilt to match the institution we’ve become.
See it at flowdesk.co
As always, reach out to our team with any questions.
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Market Update - April 30th, 2026
After a pick up in activity last week, we've seen a bit of a lull again this week as BTC slides back to the top of a 2 month range. Alt activity relative to majors has increased as some are positioning for a leg higher from here. As US equities take a bit of a breather this week and Crude has pushed back toward it's range high, it seems wise to be cautious here. We've been most active in BTC, HYPE, ETH, ENA, XPL, GRASS, KAIA, DRV and KNTQ spot. As the week comes to a close, BTC is holding together by a thread, and funding rates continue to suggest that many participants are hedged. While it'd be nice to point a near term catalyst, it seems more likely that the overall risk tone following megacap earnings will likely be the driver of where crypto and risk assets go next.
Following Coinbase EU's launch of dated contracts, additional EU perp venues are pivoting toward similar 5Y-expiry futures structures to navigate MiCA while preserving the bulk of the perpetual mechanism. We are observing this shift firsthand across our integrated exchanges on the liquidity side. HIP-4 appears imminent as further protocol mechanics surface on testnet, opening the door to on-chain outcome markets, a category that continues to print records. Combined Polymarket and Kalshi OI now exceeds $1.1bn (Kalshi $640M, Polymarket $530M). While commodities on Hyperliquid (WTIOIL, BRENTOIL, etc.) remain the dominant focus for the markets, we are gradually observing a rotation of on-chain volumes from commodities back into big tech. Demand for funding-rate hedges has likewise increased, evidenced by Boros' BRENTOIL-USDC yield swaption market reaching nearly $2M in OI since its late-March launch. On the desk, we observed private volumes ramping through March, concentrated in on-chain equity names, before tapering into April.
Realized vols have been grinding lower as lack of directional appetite persists but we've seen a pickup in BTC call buying recently. Skews continue to favor puts and we believe optionality is cheap. Traders seem to be getting lulled to sleep and may get caught off guard by an incoming catalyst whether that's macro or crypto related so we like a long gamma position.
On the credit desk, we are seeing demand to scale into levered longs as the market seems to show some relief, some names of interest consist of MON, NEAR, and ETH. We have also seen strong demand for hedging future unlocks particularly on WLD, CHIP, and SOL. Following the recent KelpDAO exploit, and the ripple effects it had across defi, we have seen many on-chain participants look for ways to diversify yield sources across their treasuries, particularly parking assets for fixed rate tenors. Additionally post exploit, we have seen a general spike in rates across the board as market participants start to think more about the proper compensation required for the risks associated with onchain money markets - benchmark supply and borrow rates are currently sitting at 4.61% and 6.09% respectively compared to 2.12% and 3.48% days before the hack.
After a pick up in activity last week, we've seen a bit of a lull again this week as BTC slides back to the top of a 2 month range. Alt activity relative to majors has increased as some are positioning for a leg higher from here. As US equities take a bit of a breather this week and Crude has pushed back toward it's range high, it seems wise to be cautious here. We've been most active in BTC, HYPE, ETH, ENA, XPL, GRASS, KAIA, DRV and KNTQ spot. As the week comes to a close, BTC is holding together by a thread, and funding rates continue to suggest that many participants are hedged. While it'd be nice to point a near term catalyst, it seems more likely that the overall risk tone following megacap earnings will likely be the driver of where crypto and risk assets go next.
Following Coinbase EU's launch of dated contracts, additional EU perp venues are pivoting toward similar 5Y-expiry futures structures to navigate MiCA while preserving the bulk of the perpetual mechanism. We are observing this shift firsthand across our integrated exchanges on the liquidity side. HIP-4 appears imminent as further protocol mechanics surface on testnet, opening the door to on-chain outcome markets, a category that continues to print records. Combined Polymarket and Kalshi OI now exceeds $1.1bn (Kalshi $640M, Polymarket $530M). While commodities on Hyperliquid (WTIOIL, BRENTOIL, etc.) remain the dominant focus for the markets, we are gradually observing a rotation of on-chain volumes from commodities back into big tech. Demand for funding-rate hedges has likewise increased, evidenced by Boros' BRENTOIL-USDC yield swaption market reaching nearly $2M in OI since its late-March launch. On the desk, we observed private volumes ramping through March, concentrated in on-chain equity names, before tapering into April.
Realized vols have been grinding lower as lack of directional appetite persists but we've seen a pickup in BTC call buying recently. Skews continue to favor puts and we believe optionality is cheap. Traders seem to be getting lulled to sleep and may get caught off guard by an incoming catalyst whether that's macro or crypto related so we like a long gamma position.
On the credit desk, we are seeing demand to scale into levered longs as the market seems to show some relief, some names of interest consist of MON, NEAR, and ETH. We have also seen strong demand for hedging future unlocks particularly on WLD, CHIP, and SOL. Following the recent KelpDAO exploit, and the ripple effects it had across defi, we have seen many on-chain participants look for ways to diversify yield sources across their treasuries, particularly parking assets for fixed rate tenors. Additionally post exploit, we have seen a general spike in rates across the board as market participants start to think more about the proper compensation required for the risks associated with onchain money markets - benchmark supply and borrow rates are currently sitting at 4.61% and 6.09% respectively compared to 2.12% and 3.48% days before the hack.
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Good morning, please find attached this week's rate card for majors and stablecoins where Flowdesk is axed to borrow. Decreased long dated stables axe by 25 bps and SOL axe by 50bps
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT
- TON 8%
- TRX 7%
- BCH 5%
- SHIB 3%
- XRP 3%
- XLM 3%
- ADA 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- DOGE 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT
- TON 8%
- TRX 7%
- BCH 5%
- SHIB 3%
- XRP 3%
- XLM 3%
- ADA 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- DOGE 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
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Today, Flowdesk announced that its Dubai entity, Flowdesk Omega FZE, has received In-Principle Approval (IPA) from the Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) for Broker-Dealer Services. The approval marks a significant milestone in Flowdesk's expansion into the UAE and its commitment to operating within one of the world's most progressive regulatory frameworks for digital assets.
https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2063978440919757120?s=20
https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2063978440919757120?s=20
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Flowdesk (@flowdesk_co) on X
Flowdesk Receives In-Principle Approval from VARA for Broker-Dealer Services
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Today, Flowdesk announced that its European entity, Flowdesk Europe, has received Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) authorization from the Financial Market Authority of France, l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation.
This milestone was earned through the trust our institutional clients place in us and we are thankful for that.
With CASP authorization now in place, we are well positioned to serve our European and global clients with the regulatory clarity, infrastructure and service quality they expect.
https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2071534193377436116?s=20
This milestone was earned through the trust our institutional clients place in us and we are thankful for that.
With CASP authorization now in place, we are well positioned to serve our European and global clients with the regulatory clarity, infrastructure and service quality they expect.
https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2071534193377436116?s=20
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Flowdesk (@flowdesk_co) on X
Flowdesk Europe Receives CASP Authorization from the AMF Under MiCA
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Good morning, please find attached this week's rate card for majors and stablecoins where Flowdesk is axed to borrow. Decreased SOL rates by 25bps across the curve.
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT:
- TRX 9%
- BCH 6%
- SHIB 3%
- XRP 3%
- XLM 3%
- ADA 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- DOGE 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT:
- TRX 9%
- BCH 6%
- SHIB 3%
- XRP 3%
- XLM 3%
- ADA 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- DOGE 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
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Tune in live to The Rollup to catch Flowdesk Sales Director, Nico Nonnon unpacking Zama's Q2 institutional report.
Monday, July 27, 1PM ET / 7PM CET.
https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2080277177350648010?s=20
Monday, July 27, 1PM ET / 7PM CET.
https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2080277177350648010?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Flowdesk (@flowdesk_co) on X
Catch our Sales Director, Nico Nonnon (@drdsdota) on @zama's Q2 institutional report, live on @therollupco
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Today, Flowdesk announced that its Dubai entity, Flowdesk Omega FZE, has received its full license from the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) to conduct Broker-Dealer Services.
The full VARA license authorizes Flowdesk Omega FZE to provide regulated broker-dealer services to Qualified and Institutional Investors in and from Dubai. Securing a license under Dubai’s VARA, widely recognized as one of the most sophisticated and transparent frameworks in the world for virtual assets, places Flowdesk among a select group of fully licensed virtual asset institutions operating in the Emirate.
Read more: https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2086754522651607255?s=20
The full VARA license authorizes Flowdesk Omega FZE to provide regulated broker-dealer services to Qualified and Institutional Investors in and from Dubai. Securing a license under Dubai’s VARA, widely recognized as one of the most sophisticated and transparent frameworks in the world for virtual assets, places Flowdesk among a select group of fully licensed virtual asset institutions operating in the Emirate.
Read more: https://x.com/flowdesk_co/status/2086754522651607255?s=20
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Good afternoon, please find attached this week's rate card for majors and stablecoins where Flowdesk is axed to borrow. Increased borrow axe on stables by 50-100bps across the curve.
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT
- STABLE 7.5%
- BCH 4.5%
- XLM 3.75%
- TRX 3%
- XRP 3%
- ADA 3%
- SHIB 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- DOGE 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
Indicative alt borrow axes: $1mm+ OT
- STABLE 7.5%
- BCH 4.5%
- XLM 3.75%
- TRX 3%
- XRP 3%
- ADA 3%
- SHIB 3%
- LTC 3%
- LINK 3%
- DOGE 3%
- ETC 3%
- PENGU 2%
- PEPE 2%
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Flowdesk Market Color August 19, 2026
Spot: BTC through $66,700 and finally breaking out of the $62k to $66k range we’ve been stuck in since early July. Flow is picking up across the board, seeing good two way but better to buy in BTC, ETH, SOL, ENA, HYPE and AAVE. 24H Volume ~$7.7B.
Derivatives: Vol is sitting at 2026 lows (BVIV ~35.6%) which is making upside look cheap. The Sep 25 $70k calls have been the standout over 2,000 BTC bought in blocks at ~33 IV over the past couple days, and our desk has been right there with them. With spot now pushing through resistance and vol this compressed, we think outright Sep calls and call spreads offer real value here. September covers the next CPI print which should be a good catalyst. Good risk/reward to be getting long optionality into this move.
Feel free to ping us if you have any questions
Spot: BTC through $66,700 and finally breaking out of the $62k to $66k range we’ve been stuck in since early July. Flow is picking up across the board, seeing good two way but better to buy in BTC, ETH, SOL, ENA, HYPE and AAVE. 24H Volume ~$7.7B.
Derivatives: Vol is sitting at 2026 lows (BVIV ~35.6%) which is making upside look cheap. The Sep 25 $70k calls have been the standout over 2,000 BTC bought in blocks at ~33 IV over the past couple days, and our desk has been right there with them. With spot now pushing through resistance and vol this compressed, we think outright Sep calls and call spreads offer real value here. September covers the next CPI print which should be a good catalyst. Good risk/reward to be getting long optionality into this move.
Feel free to ping us if you have any questions
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Market Update - August 21, 2026
The setup we flagged earlier this week played out faster and with more conviction than most expected. After six weeks stuck in the $62k to $66.9k range, BTC broke free on August 19th in under an hour as $1.74 billion in short positions got wiped out, the second largest squeeze on record. The move extended overnight and BTC briefly printed $79,500 before pulling back toward $77k this morning. The trigger was a convergence worth paying attention to: Bessent doubling Treasury long dated bond buybacks from $2B to $4B per operation starting September 9th set the liquidity tone, and Trump naming Hyperliquid from the podium at Wednesday's White House summit added the second leg. Over $3 billion in crypto shorts have been wiped out since Tuesday, and the market is now sitting with the more important question, which is whether fresh spot demand can replace the forced buying that got this started.
So far the institutional bid looks real. Spot BTC ETFs pulled in roughly $1.6B over the past two sessions and ETH ETFs added about $500M alongside, which points to genuine demand rather than purely mechanical covering. On the spot desk, net buying in BTC continues to outweigh selling. We saw profit taking in HYPE and PUMP at elevated levels and two way flow across ENA, AAVE, JUP and MORPHO. One thing worth keeping an eye on: 44,300 BTC have moved to exchanges since the rally began, which tells you some longer term holders are using this strength to distribute.
Alt breadth has improved overnight, which is what you want to see after a squeeze that was initially all BTC. PUMP is leading the alt market and closing in on its ICO price of $0.004. HYPE printed a new all time high this morning after Trump's comments at Wednesday's summit, where he said CFTC Chair Mike Selig is working to bring Hyperliquid to the US in a fully compliant and legal fashion. First time he's ever publicly named the platform. HYPE ran 22% and PURR, the Nasdaq listed Hyperliquid treasury vehicle, closed 33% higher on its best day on record. The traditional exchange operators got hit on the other side as you'd expect, with CBOE down 3.5% and CME sliding 1.7%. ZEC broke out and peaked at $665, with its own set of catalysts stacking up: Grayscale's fourth amended spot ETF filing (proposed ticker ZCSH on NYSE Arca) and reports of DCG in non binding talks to buy 200,000 ZEC worth around $110M. XRP is starting to show retail life again, up roughly 40% from the lows and pushing toward $1.40.
On the derivs side, the picture looks very different from two days ago. The Sep $70k call buying we were flagging at 33 IV looks well timed in hindsight with spot now well through that strike. Vol has come in off the 2026 lows but what's really interesting is how restrained funding has stayed given the size of this move. BTC is running at 0.0101% and ETH at 0.0103%, well below where you'd expect them after a $15k week. That tells you spot is leading this, not leverage, which gives the move more credibility. The Sep 25 Deribit basis has moved to 10.95% annualized, a more meaningful premium that reflects growing appetite for leveraged long exposure building in the term structure. We still like calls and call spreads and would look to add on any vol reset rather than chasing here. The put heavy skew that defined the last six weeks is increasingly looking like the wrong position.
On the credit desk, appetite for leverage is building in a way we haven't seen in several weeks as traders look to lean into momentum. The desk remains axed to borrow stables, ETH and BTC.
The regulatory picture out of Wednesday is worth its own note. The summit room included Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig, and Trump used it to push for passage of the Clarity Act, which has been stalling in Washington. The CFTC already approved US perps in May and has been signaling openness to decentralized venues since. A compliant pathway for onchain perps would be a structural shift, and the competitive read through for incumbent exchanges is not a small thing.
With the squeeze running, ETF inflows coming in and the regulatory tone shifting, the path of least resistance is still higher. The sidelined cash that missed the initial move is a natural buyer on any dip and with Fear and Greed at 72, in greed territory but nowhere near euphoric, history says there is more room to run. The watches from here are the same as always in a move like this: whether exchange inflows from long term holders start to cap things, whether funding stretches enough to slow momentum, and whether the alts can hold their breakouts or fade back into BTC dominance. The pain trade for bears is getting harder to defend by the hour.
The setup we flagged earlier this week played out faster and with more conviction than most expected. After six weeks stuck in the $62k to $66.9k range, BTC broke free on August 19th in under an hour as $1.74 billion in short positions got wiped out, the second largest squeeze on record. The move extended overnight and BTC briefly printed $79,500 before pulling back toward $77k this morning. The trigger was a convergence worth paying attention to: Bessent doubling Treasury long dated bond buybacks from $2B to $4B per operation starting September 9th set the liquidity tone, and Trump naming Hyperliquid from the podium at Wednesday's White House summit added the second leg. Over $3 billion in crypto shorts have been wiped out since Tuesday, and the market is now sitting with the more important question, which is whether fresh spot demand can replace the forced buying that got this started.
So far the institutional bid looks real. Spot BTC ETFs pulled in roughly $1.6B over the past two sessions and ETH ETFs added about $500M alongside, which points to genuine demand rather than purely mechanical covering. On the spot desk, net buying in BTC continues to outweigh selling. We saw profit taking in HYPE and PUMP at elevated levels and two way flow across ENA, AAVE, JUP and MORPHO. One thing worth keeping an eye on: 44,300 BTC have moved to exchanges since the rally began, which tells you some longer term holders are using this strength to distribute.
Alt breadth has improved overnight, which is what you want to see after a squeeze that was initially all BTC. PUMP is leading the alt market and closing in on its ICO price of $0.004. HYPE printed a new all time high this morning after Trump's comments at Wednesday's summit, where he said CFTC Chair Mike Selig is working to bring Hyperliquid to the US in a fully compliant and legal fashion. First time he's ever publicly named the platform. HYPE ran 22% and PURR, the Nasdaq listed Hyperliquid treasury vehicle, closed 33% higher on its best day on record. The traditional exchange operators got hit on the other side as you'd expect, with CBOE down 3.5% and CME sliding 1.7%. ZEC broke out and peaked at $665, with its own set of catalysts stacking up: Grayscale's fourth amended spot ETF filing (proposed ticker ZCSH on NYSE Arca) and reports of DCG in non binding talks to buy 200,000 ZEC worth around $110M. XRP is starting to show retail life again, up roughly 40% from the lows and pushing toward $1.40.
On the derivs side, the picture looks very different from two days ago. The Sep $70k call buying we were flagging at 33 IV looks well timed in hindsight with spot now well through that strike. Vol has come in off the 2026 lows but what's really interesting is how restrained funding has stayed given the size of this move. BTC is running at 0.0101% and ETH at 0.0103%, well below where you'd expect them after a $15k week. That tells you spot is leading this, not leverage, which gives the move more credibility. The Sep 25 Deribit basis has moved to 10.95% annualized, a more meaningful premium that reflects growing appetite for leveraged long exposure building in the term structure. We still like calls and call spreads and would look to add on any vol reset rather than chasing here. The put heavy skew that defined the last six weeks is increasingly looking like the wrong position.
On the credit desk, appetite for leverage is building in a way we haven't seen in several weeks as traders look to lean into momentum. The desk remains axed to borrow stables, ETH and BTC.
The regulatory picture out of Wednesday is worth its own note. The summit room included Coinbase, Ripple, Robinhood, SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig, and Trump used it to push for passage of the Clarity Act, which has been stalling in Washington. The CFTC already approved US perps in May and has been signaling openness to decentralized venues since. A compliant pathway for onchain perps would be a structural shift, and the competitive read through for incumbent exchanges is not a small thing.
With the squeeze running, ETF inflows coming in and the regulatory tone shifting, the path of least resistance is still higher. The sidelined cash that missed the initial move is a natural buyer on any dip and with Fear and Greed at 72, in greed territory but nowhere near euphoric, history says there is more room to run. The watches from here are the same as always in a move like this: whether exchange inflows from long term holders start to cap things, whether funding stretches enough to slow momentum, and whether the alts can hold their breakouts or fade back into BTC dominance. The pain trade for bears is getting harder to defend by the hour.
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Market Update - August 27, 2026
The theme of this week has been vertical re-accumulation across the board.
After last week's move, there were real signs of an overheated market flashing over the weekend and into Monday. Funding stretched, open interest elevated, RSI on medium timeframes historically overbought. The natural expectation was a sharper correction. Instead the market took the more frustrating path for bears, selling off just enough to shake loose the weaker hands before resuming higher. Open interest has leveled off across the majors, funding has come back down to and in some cases below the neutral rate of 10.95%, and RSI has reset to more neutral territory without any meaningful price damage. The technical setup is cleaner now than it was the first time we were at $79,500 and nothing we are seeing suggests a reversal is coming. Offside traders have been conditioned this week to buy every dip, and they have.
The ETF bid has not blinked. Spot BTC ETFs are now on 8 consecutive inflow days: roughly $338M on Monday, $314M on Tuesday, $232M on Wednesday. August BTC ETF inflows are already above $3B for the month. ETH ETFs are running the same streak with the 7-day haul sitting around $1B. This is not momentum chasing. It is consistent institutional accumulation and the most important structural feature of this market right now.
On the desk, two way flow continues to broaden across a growing list of names. HYPE remains the primary source of profit taking as the clear bear market winner transitions from a hiding spot to a source of funds. Many traders parked in HYPE during the downturn while waiting for a shift in conditions, and that rotation out is now underway in earnest as risk appetite returns elsewhere. ZEC has also seen steady profit taking following the official conversion of ZCSH into an ETF. Early institutional volumes have been limited but the price has held up reasonably well given the lack of immediate demand. PUMP remains one of the strongest performers in the market and continues to see selling from participants who were accumulating over the past several months, though the bid underneath has been absorbing it well. BTC buying on the desk remains persistent and continues to far outweigh sellers. TAO has moved back to front and center after one of the strongest 24-hour bounces in the market and is climbing quickly up the list of our most active names with very good two way flow. SOL is emerging as the leading major this week as on-chain activity picks up. Notably the buying pressure appears to be predominantly fresh longs rather than short covering, which means the squeeze driven fuel that powered other names earlier in the rally has not yet been the story here. Worth watching closely.
On the derivatives side, a large macro fund was active in BTC upside this week, buying 2,000 4Sep $82k calls and 4,000 25Sep $85k calls. With spot in the high $70s, targeting $82k to $85k by September expiry is about as directional as it gets from an institutional player. Hard to read that flow as anything other than a bet that this move has more to run.
A notable liquidation cascade played out on August 25th worth flagging. A single wallet spent approximately $320k buying YT-reUSD on Pendle over roughly ten minutes. The concentrated buying pushed the implied yield above 20%, which mechanically marked the paired PT-reUSD down approximately 3%. That PT was sitting as collateral on Morpho behind looped positions running at roughly 91.5% LTV, and a 3% move in the collateral was enough to trip approximately $36.4M in liquidations. The episode is a clean illustration of how thin on-chain collateral markets can be and how mechanical the cascade becomes once liquidation thresholds are breached. At 91.5% LTV there is essentially no buffer and a single large market participant can pull the thread.
The macro picture into tomorrow is straightforward to describe and harder to handicap. All eyes are on Jackson Hole. The central question is Fed independence and whether Chair Warsh will signal anything that contradicts the Treasury's efforts to support the long end of the curve. The White House clearly has an interest in Warsh staying in his lane. Equities got a boost overnight from strong guidance out of NVDA, which has taken some of the edge off pre Jackson Hole anxiety heading into tomorrow.
With the technical reset largely complete, institutional flows steady, and macro event risk concentrated in a single event tomorrow, the market is coiled. A dovish or neutral Warsh keeps the bid intact and likely opens the door for another leg. A hawkish surprise reintroduces vol but the structural buyers that have shown up every day this week are unlikely to disappear on one Fed speech. The path of least resistance remains higher and the pain trade for bears has not changed.
The theme of this week has been vertical re-accumulation across the board.
After last week's move, there were real signs of an overheated market flashing over the weekend and into Monday. Funding stretched, open interest elevated, RSI on medium timeframes historically overbought. The natural expectation was a sharper correction. Instead the market took the more frustrating path for bears, selling off just enough to shake loose the weaker hands before resuming higher. Open interest has leveled off across the majors, funding has come back down to and in some cases below the neutral rate of 10.95%, and RSI has reset to more neutral territory without any meaningful price damage. The technical setup is cleaner now than it was the first time we were at $79,500 and nothing we are seeing suggests a reversal is coming. Offside traders have been conditioned this week to buy every dip, and they have.
The ETF bid has not blinked. Spot BTC ETFs are now on 8 consecutive inflow days: roughly $338M on Monday, $314M on Tuesday, $232M on Wednesday. August BTC ETF inflows are already above $3B for the month. ETH ETFs are running the same streak with the 7-day haul sitting around $1B. This is not momentum chasing. It is consistent institutional accumulation and the most important structural feature of this market right now.
On the desk, two way flow continues to broaden across a growing list of names. HYPE remains the primary source of profit taking as the clear bear market winner transitions from a hiding spot to a source of funds. Many traders parked in HYPE during the downturn while waiting for a shift in conditions, and that rotation out is now underway in earnest as risk appetite returns elsewhere. ZEC has also seen steady profit taking following the official conversion of ZCSH into an ETF. Early institutional volumes have been limited but the price has held up reasonably well given the lack of immediate demand. PUMP remains one of the strongest performers in the market and continues to see selling from participants who were accumulating over the past several months, though the bid underneath has been absorbing it well. BTC buying on the desk remains persistent and continues to far outweigh sellers. TAO has moved back to front and center after one of the strongest 24-hour bounces in the market and is climbing quickly up the list of our most active names with very good two way flow. SOL is emerging as the leading major this week as on-chain activity picks up. Notably the buying pressure appears to be predominantly fresh longs rather than short covering, which means the squeeze driven fuel that powered other names earlier in the rally has not yet been the story here. Worth watching closely.
On the derivatives side, a large macro fund was active in BTC upside this week, buying 2,000 4Sep $82k calls and 4,000 25Sep $85k calls. With spot in the high $70s, targeting $82k to $85k by September expiry is about as directional as it gets from an institutional player. Hard to read that flow as anything other than a bet that this move has more to run.
A notable liquidation cascade played out on August 25th worth flagging. A single wallet spent approximately $320k buying YT-reUSD on Pendle over roughly ten minutes. The concentrated buying pushed the implied yield above 20%, which mechanically marked the paired PT-reUSD down approximately 3%. That PT was sitting as collateral on Morpho behind looped positions running at roughly 91.5% LTV, and a 3% move in the collateral was enough to trip approximately $36.4M in liquidations. The episode is a clean illustration of how thin on-chain collateral markets can be and how mechanical the cascade becomes once liquidation thresholds are breached. At 91.5% LTV there is essentially no buffer and a single large market participant can pull the thread.
The macro picture into tomorrow is straightforward to describe and harder to handicap. All eyes are on Jackson Hole. The central question is Fed independence and whether Chair Warsh will signal anything that contradicts the Treasury's efforts to support the long end of the curve. The White House clearly has an interest in Warsh staying in his lane. Equities got a boost overnight from strong guidance out of NVDA, which has taken some of the edge off pre Jackson Hole anxiety heading into tomorrow.
With the technical reset largely complete, institutional flows steady, and macro event risk concentrated in a single event tomorrow, the market is coiled. A dovish or neutral Warsh keeps the bid intact and likely opens the door for another leg. A hawkish surprise reintroduces vol but the structural buyers that have shown up every day this week are unlikely to disappear on one Fed speech. The path of least resistance remains higher and the pain trade for bears has not changed.
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