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@disclosetv

MONTANA

Trump – 343,602 (56.92%)
Biden – 244,786 (40.55%)

Trump added 64k votes in 4 years, a GOP record, but curiously, Biden, while losing by 16.4%, gained 67k votes as the state registered just 58k new voters.

I think target here was actually senate race which was an 11% race between Bullock and Daines; also a gubernatorial race. Keep in mind, there is a big scrap in Missoula Co. right now over about 6,000 ballots thought to be illegally cast.

MT does not register by party, so using working class/population growth trends.

Red – Obviously Ugly (6)
Yellow – Suspect/Likely Fraud (19)
Green – Clean (31)

Estimates for excess votes based on pop. growth/trends:
Cascade – 3k
Flathead – 5k
Gallatin – 7k
Lewis and Clark – 3k
Missoula – 6k
Yellowstone – 6k

I estimate 46k excess votes statewide. If accurate, and counting ONLY excess Biden vote growth, Trump should have won this state about 61.6% to 35.6%, or 26.0% - in other words, a shellacking that tracks accurately with the progression from 2012 to 2016.

UTAH

Trump – 865k (58.13%)
Biden – 560k (37.65%)

UT is one of hardest to gage, thanks to poor record keeping (UT registers by party, but not available across counties), the presence of a serious 3rd party challenge in 2016, and Romney’s home state skew. Most accurate comps go back to 2008.

I think UT was a target by central planners – JB has 45k more than Trump ’16; perhaps they anticipated the same 3rd party behavior. DT is 125k past Romney ’12, but Biden’s gains are 250k from Clinton, when previous high gain was Obama ’08 with 87k. Nearly all third party throwaways came from GOP in 2016.

Red – Obviously Ugly (5)
Yellow – Suspect/Likely Fraud (8)
Green – Clean (16)

Estimates for excess votes based on pop. growth/trends:
Salt Lake – 50k
Utah – 30k
Davis – 20k
Weber – 9k
Washington – 7k

I estimate 131k excess votes. If accurate, and counting ONLY excess JB vote growth, DT should have won this state about 63.7% to 31.6%, or by 32.1%. JB gain in SLC was 114k, previous high was 31k (Obama ’08).

COLORADO

Biden – 1,804,352 (55.40%)
Trump – 1,364,607 (41.90%)

Dem-trending registration favors JB win; however, massive increases in voter rolls like in OR with unaffiliated party voters is curious. JB is +465k in a small state over Clinton, with previous high Dem gain of 287k for Obama (35k and 15k in 2 elections following). DT is +162k.

CO Sec. State decision to ban audits forced a lot of people to take a good look here, when many weren’t watching it. Biden’s vote totals in a state that already voted by mail anyway make little sense. I estimate 183k excess votes statewide.

Red – Obviously Ugly (8)
Yellow – Suspect/Likely Fraud (20)
Green – Clean (36)

Estimates for excess votes:
Arapahoe – 20k
Denver – 25k
El Paso – 20k
Jefferson – 25k
Larimer – 12k
Mesa – 5k
Weld – 10k

Best targets are Mesa and Weld. With excess votes only accounted for, 52.7% to 44.4% (8.3%) is an accurate JB number in keeping with reg trends. If votes are being flipped, look out. Would have made the Gardner race very tight.