War/Military:
-Despite the claims of the US-funded Ukrainian media, the past week has made it very hard for rational people to see the Kursk offensive as anything more than a massive blunder on UKR’s part, and also that their military has lost the initiative on the whole.
--What happens next remains to be seen, but UKR is not in an advantageous position, to put it lightly.
Markets/economics:
-You may not understand why, but DOGE getting the US fiscal house in order is having a noticeable (positive) effect on the treasury market already.
--We previously discussed the “long tail” issues in bonds, the bond vigilantes rebelling against US mismanagement, and others. This seems to be cooling already.
--13-week: 4.2280
--5-year: 4.334
--10-year: 4.487
--30-year: 4.69 (this was in the 4.8s very recently)
-Bessent quasi-confirmed what many have been saying in his interview with Fox Business.
--He and Trump want to bring down borrowing costs, so they are focusing on the 10-year Treasury rate rather than the Federal Funds Rate, the latter of which was traditionally the benchmark for borrowing rates (but has not actually been for quite some time).
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
-Futures for all of the major US stock market indices are in the green as of this writing (Sunday evening).
-Crude oil is at $71.50
-Gold is up higher at $2,897
-BTC is a tad lower at $95,685.03
Business:
-Alibaba has released an AI model that it says surpasses Deep Seek.
--You know that “AI arms race” that people keep talking about? This is it.
--Shared by @chigrl :
x.com/chigrl/status/…
Geopolitics:
-Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic in Canada saying that he understood that Trump knows the vast mineral resources that Canada has within her borders, which is the reason Trudeau thinks Trump wants to “absorb” our neighbors to the north.
--I would say that, for the first time in recent history, Trudeau is likely correct - in part. When taken in context with the Greenland maneuvering, I don’t believe resources are the only thing at play.
-Macron is giving signals that France may invest $109 bn into a French AI.
--Unfortunately their tax, ownership, and capital structures are not built to encourage would-be startups to operate in France (or the greater EU for that matter) - especially potential unicorns.
Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-President Trump has announced that he is stripping the security clearances from:
--Joe Biden (who did the same to Trump post-2020)
--Letitia James (NY AG)
--Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA)
--Antony Blinken (Former Sec. of State)
--Lisa Monaco (Former Deputy AG)
--Jake Sullivan (Former NSA)
--Andrew Weissmann (Ex-Prosecutor)
--Norm Eisen (Former Ambassador)
-California has dropped its case against Sandra Merritt, who exposed Planned Parenthood for its selling of aborted baby parts:
lifenews.com/2025/01/27/cal…
Conspiracy-y:
I’ve foot-tapped all that I can about the potential for the price of gold to be drastically increased in the near future for several reasons (monetize the debt, sovereign wealth fund, lower the USD to help offset the debt, etc).
In fact, it was one of the things that the people (who have now been confirmed to have Trump’s ear) whose theories on how to fix the US debt crises were collated in my Is the US Debt Crisis Fixable post & podcast all aligned on:
open.substack.com/pub/robertplew…
I did a lot of studying & catching up this weekend on “the current state of the nation/world,” so I can’t remember who put this theory forward, but…
What if the COMEX stockpiling and movement of gold from London to NYC that we discussed on Friday is because the “smart money” is already out ahead of this future move?
It’s something worth noodling on.
White Pill:
In the close of Friday’s show, we mentioned how the younger generations are always the ones to run into the fray to save the world. While I mentioned that one a global scale, we have yet another heartwarming example on a very micro, personal level.
-Despite the claims of the US-funded Ukrainian media, the past week has made it very hard for rational people to see the Kursk offensive as anything more than a massive blunder on UKR’s part, and also that their military has lost the initiative on the whole.
--What happens next remains to be seen, but UKR is not in an advantageous position, to put it lightly.
Markets/economics:
-You may not understand why, but DOGE getting the US fiscal house in order is having a noticeable (positive) effect on the treasury market already.
--We previously discussed the “long tail” issues in bonds, the bond vigilantes rebelling against US mismanagement, and others. This seems to be cooling already.
--13-week: 4.2280
--5-year: 4.334
--10-year: 4.487
--30-year: 4.69 (this was in the 4.8s very recently)
-Bessent quasi-confirmed what many have been saying in his interview with Fox Business.
--He and Trump want to bring down borrowing costs, so they are focusing on the 10-year Treasury rate rather than the Federal Funds Rate, the latter of which was traditionally the benchmark for borrowing rates (but has not actually been for quite some time).
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
-Futures for all of the major US stock market indices are in the green as of this writing (Sunday evening).
-Crude oil is at $71.50
-Gold is up higher at $2,897
-BTC is a tad lower at $95,685.03
Business:
-Alibaba has released an AI model that it says surpasses Deep Seek.
--You know that “AI arms race” that people keep talking about? This is it.
--Shared by @chigrl :
x.com/chigrl/status/…
Geopolitics:
-Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic in Canada saying that he understood that Trump knows the vast mineral resources that Canada has within her borders, which is the reason Trudeau thinks Trump wants to “absorb” our neighbors to the north.
--I would say that, for the first time in recent history, Trudeau is likely correct - in part. When taken in context with the Greenland maneuvering, I don’t believe resources are the only thing at play.
-Macron is giving signals that France may invest $109 bn into a French AI.
--Unfortunately their tax, ownership, and capital structures are not built to encourage would-be startups to operate in France (or the greater EU for that matter) - especially potential unicorns.
Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-President Trump has announced that he is stripping the security clearances from:
--Joe Biden (who did the same to Trump post-2020)
--Letitia James (NY AG)
--Alvin Bragg (Manhattan DA)
--Antony Blinken (Former Sec. of State)
--Lisa Monaco (Former Deputy AG)
--Jake Sullivan (Former NSA)
--Andrew Weissmann (Ex-Prosecutor)
--Norm Eisen (Former Ambassador)
-California has dropped its case against Sandra Merritt, who exposed Planned Parenthood for its selling of aborted baby parts:
lifenews.com/2025/01/27/cal…
Conspiracy-y:
I’ve foot-tapped all that I can about the potential for the price of gold to be drastically increased in the near future for several reasons (monetize the debt, sovereign wealth fund, lower the USD to help offset the debt, etc).
In fact, it was one of the things that the people (who have now been confirmed to have Trump’s ear) whose theories on how to fix the US debt crises were collated in my Is the US Debt Crisis Fixable post & podcast all aligned on:
open.substack.com/pub/robertplew…
I did a lot of studying & catching up this weekend on “the current state of the nation/world,” so I can’t remember who put this theory forward, but…
What if the COMEX stockpiling and movement of gold from London to NYC that we discussed on Friday is because the “smart money” is already out ahead of this future move?
It’s something worth noodling on.
White Pill:
In the close of Friday’s show, we mentioned how the younger generations are always the ones to run into the fray to save the world. While I mentioned that one a global scale, we have yet another heartwarming example on a very micro, personal level.
Many heard about the recent Philadelphia plane crash; what not as many heard about was the young boy who shielded his sister from shrapnel, ended up in surgery due to the injuries that he incurred, and whose first words upon waking were to ask if he saved his sister.
Parents, however this kid was raised is the right way to raise your sons.
notthebee.com/article/10-yea…
Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-DOGE is doing exactly what Trump earned a mandate from the voting public for it to do, and the corrupticrats and their media lapdogs are wailing loudly and launching lawfare to stop it. The more outright and rampant fraud they find and cut, the worse the wailing corrupticrats look for trying to maintain said fraud.
-Between Marc Andreesen hiring Daniel Penny and the VP (Vance) pushing for “Big Balls” to be rehired, it looks like the vibe has shifted and the media’s go-to trick of old tweets and using the Saul Alinsky “use your target’s values against him” tactics are done and dusted. I would say that they could simply go back to proper and honest journalism-ing, but I don’t know if they know how to anymore.
-Gold is pushing higher, the “long tail” bond issues are smoothing out, DOGE is cutting fraud, and America is shoring up shipping lanes, commodities, and “the spice.” American Golden Age inbound.
Implications:
Many eyes were opened when the USAID fraud was laid bare, but the latest announcement is that they will soon be moving into the FBI and other places. If you know the world of tech startups, perhaps you understand that USAID and Treasury were simply the “MVP” for DOGE.
Now they know what they’re doing, they have gained public support, and the American people are hugely behind what they are doing, I imagine, and this is only my belief with no evidence to back it up, that those MVPs will soon morph into finding “other” types of hidden information and networks at other agencies behind other “dirty deeds” that will lead to an entirely different type of apokalypsis for the American people.
The Weekly Read (Monday):
Lords of Finance: 1929, The Great Depression, and The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed
amazon.com/Lords-Finance-…
If you’ve been following Shitshow Macro or know me in general, you probably know that there are two things that I nerd out about more than anything: history and finance. This is the meeting of those two worlds, and a reiteration of the Biblical passage that, “there is nothing new under the sun.”
It doesn’t matter if it was 1929, 1987, 2008, or 2020 - people will do what they are incentivized to do. In the case of each of those, if certain actors are not dis-incentivized from doing incredibly greedy things that risk breaking the global economy, time has proven that there will always be a cohort who will do exactly that.
If you understand how it’s been done and who has done it in the past, you learn to read the signs for when it’s being done again. This is one of the best historical accounts to help you do that.
Links mentioned in the show:
Intro & Outro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
Media Defamation Lawsuits Crowdfunding Link
givesendgo.com/1APMediaDefama…
Thread with Short and Long Explainer Videos About Our Lawsuits and the J6 False Narratives
x.com/RobertPLewis/s…
USGOV Spend by Agency
(Chart won't display on X but is in the original Substack post)
Fraud, Waste, and Abuse as a % of Budget
(Chart won't display on X but is in the original Substack post)
“The List”
Geopolitics: The Duran, Aurelian Substack (specific to diplomacy), Armstrong Economics blog/newsletter
Economics/Trading: Tree Rings (Luke Gromen newsletter), MacroOps newsletter, Gold Goats & Guns (Tom Luongo newsletter), Armstrong Economics blog/newsletter, Macro Edge Research (jobs and business data points)
Domestic politics: The Duran, Epoch Times, The President’s Daily Brief, Dark to Light with Tracy Beanz and Quite Frankly, Truth Over News Substack, Pippa’s Pen and Podcast (Substack), Armstrong Economics blog/newsletter
Parents, however this kid was raised is the right way to raise your sons.
notthebee.com/article/10-yea…
Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-DOGE is doing exactly what Trump earned a mandate from the voting public for it to do, and the corrupticrats and their media lapdogs are wailing loudly and launching lawfare to stop it. The more outright and rampant fraud they find and cut, the worse the wailing corrupticrats look for trying to maintain said fraud.
-Between Marc Andreesen hiring Daniel Penny and the VP (Vance) pushing for “Big Balls” to be rehired, it looks like the vibe has shifted and the media’s go-to trick of old tweets and using the Saul Alinsky “use your target’s values against him” tactics are done and dusted. I would say that they could simply go back to proper and honest journalism-ing, but I don’t know if they know how to anymore.
-Gold is pushing higher, the “long tail” bond issues are smoothing out, DOGE is cutting fraud, and America is shoring up shipping lanes, commodities, and “the spice.” American Golden Age inbound.
Implications:
Many eyes were opened when the USAID fraud was laid bare, but the latest announcement is that they will soon be moving into the FBI and other places. If you know the world of tech startups, perhaps you understand that USAID and Treasury were simply the “MVP” for DOGE.
Now they know what they’re doing, they have gained public support, and the American people are hugely behind what they are doing, I imagine, and this is only my belief with no evidence to back it up, that those MVPs will soon morph into finding “other” types of hidden information and networks at other agencies behind other “dirty deeds” that will lead to an entirely different type of apokalypsis for the American people.
The Weekly Read (Monday):
Lords of Finance: 1929, The Great Depression, and The Bankers Who Broke the World by Liaquat Ahamed
amazon.com/Lords-Finance-…
If you’ve been following Shitshow Macro or know me in general, you probably know that there are two things that I nerd out about more than anything: history and finance. This is the meeting of those two worlds, and a reiteration of the Biblical passage that, “there is nothing new under the sun.”
It doesn’t matter if it was 1929, 1987, 2008, or 2020 - people will do what they are incentivized to do. In the case of each of those, if certain actors are not dis-incentivized from doing incredibly greedy things that risk breaking the global economy, time has proven that there will always be a cohort who will do exactly that.
If you understand how it’s been done and who has done it in the past, you learn to read the signs for when it’s being done again. This is one of the best historical accounts to help you do that.
Links mentioned in the show:
Intro & Outro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
Media Defamation Lawsuits Crowdfunding Link
givesendgo.com/1APMediaDefama…
Thread with Short and Long Explainer Videos About Our Lawsuits and the J6 False Narratives
x.com/RobertPLewis/s…
USGOV Spend by Agency
(Chart won't display on X but is in the original Substack post)
Fraud, Waste, and Abuse as a % of Budget
(Chart won't display on X but is in the original Substack post)
“The List”
Geopolitics: The Duran, Aurelian Substack (specific to diplomacy), Armstrong Economics blog/newsletter
Economics/Trading: Tree Rings (Luke Gromen newsletter), MacroOps newsletter, Gold Goats & Guns (Tom Luongo newsletter), Armstrong Economics blog/newsletter, Macro Edge Research (jobs and business data points)
Domestic politics: The Duran, Epoch Times, The President’s Daily Brief, Dark to Light with Tracy Beanz and Quite Frankly, Truth Over News Substack, Pippa’s Pen and Podcast (Substack), Armstrong Economics blog/newsletter
Addendum: I forgot to add The Conservative Treehouse to my domestic Politics section of "The List."
Sundance has been further ahead of the crowd, more accurate on a granular and directional level, and taken more heat for his accuracy & prescience than anyone in this domain. He's been added.
Sundance has been further ahead of the crowd, more accurate on a granular and directional level, and taken more heat for his accuracy & prescience than anyone in this domain. He's been added.
New Shitshow Macro post: Cutting Off the Deep State’s Tentacles
If you’re having trouble keeping up with Trump v2.0, let’s unpack the moves that have been made so far to cut off the Deep State’s funding streams and tentacles.
Topics covered in this post
-Introduction: Deeper and Dirtier Than Most Realized
-USAID and State: Intel Agencies by Another Name
-GOV-funded “NGOs” and Deep State Sinecures
-Social Security Admin: Understanding Deep State Needs for Fake Identities
-Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB): An Extortion Racket for Progressive Causes
-The Media: Operation Mockingbird Seems to Have Simply Evolved & Changed Names
-Potential Fraud in Treasuries: Martin Armstrong Laughs Last
-Why Did So Many USGOV Agencies Fund Criminal Aliens?
-Mike Benz: If USAID Funded Trans Groups Abroad for Destabilization - Why Here?
-FBI, CIA, DOD, DHS, NSA, etc: The DOGE MVP’s Next Expected Evolution and Likely Apokalypsis
-Fin
If you’re having trouble keeping up with Trump v2.0, let’s unpack the moves that have been made so far to cut off the Deep State’s funding streams and tentacles.
Topics covered in this post
-Introduction: Deeper and Dirtier Than Most Realized
-USAID and State: Intel Agencies by Another Name
-GOV-funded “NGOs” and Deep State Sinecures
-Social Security Admin: Understanding Deep State Needs for Fake Identities
-Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB): An Extortion Racket for Progressive Causes
-The Media: Operation Mockingbird Seems to Have Simply Evolved & Changed Names
-Potential Fraud in Treasuries: Martin Armstrong Laughs Last
-Why Did So Many USGOV Agencies Fund Criminal Aliens?
-Mike Benz: If USAID Funded Trans Groups Abroad for Destabilization - Why Here?
-FBI, CIA, DOD, DHS, NSA, etc: The DOGE MVP’s Next Expected Evolution and Likely Apokalypsis
-Fin
Podcast version is up for Cutting Off the Deep State's Tentacles:
https://open.substack.com/pub/robertplewis/p/podcast-cutting-off-the-deep-states
https://open.substack.com/pub/robertplewis/p/podcast-cutting-off-the-deep-states
Substack
Podcast: Cutting Off the Deep State’s Tentacles
Topics covered in this post