Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
Link to video:
https://youtu.be/2vp7o6cJmbI?si=6qcnk1qJDMQfX9VT
https://youtu.be/2vp7o6cJmbI?si=6qcnk1qJDMQfX9VT
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
The Shitshow Macro Weekly Prep Pod for Mon 7.22.24 is out:
-Potential Multiple Shooter Theory Audio & Breakdown was posted on Saturday morning/afternoon
Domestic Politics:
-Obvious top of the news is that a letter was posted to X on Sunday claiming to be from Joe Biden announcing that he was stepping down.
-'Curiously, a message earlier that morning stated that he would not be dropping out, and Biden staffers said they only learned the news via X.
-I listened to Chris Martenson’s analysis of the Trump rally assassination attempt and posted about it on Saturday. --Many are remarking that there were 2 “good guy” shooters, but that doesn’t align with the multiple videos Martenson pulled audio files from to show his work.
--Why would “good guys” be shooting toward Trump, the stage, and the crowd?
-US Intel and DHS are making a big stink about uncovering an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
--That’s been a “known quantity” for years, so forgive me for calling bullshit.
--It’s notable that Mayorkas was also caught in at least 3 public lies post-assassination attempt.
-More notable that Schumer used a novel measure to prevent his impeachment vote in the Senate.
-A report by the NY Post states that rapes have risen by 11% in NYC thanks to migrants, bail reform, and a depleted NYPD. --How’s voting for a “tough on crime” former cop (Democrat) mayor working out for you, NY? Article in the show notes.
-Jon Tester is running for the Senate in Montana, and I get ads from this dude all the time. --He tries to claim and position himself as a moderate, but he votes with Pelosi 99% of the time.
--Please do your due diligence, red states, there are a lot of progs (some of whom have an R after their name) who will lie through their teeth to get into office.
War/Military:
-Nearly 800 UKR Marines are listed as MIA after a retreat from Krynky. (Article in show notes)
-UKR launched a combined aerial & maritime drone attack on a RUS coast guard base in Crimea (Lake Donuzlav) inflicting damage on a command center, ammo depot, and other infrastructure.
-It came out last week (and we discussed here) that the EU/NATO overstated its ability to manufacture artillery shells for use in UKR by 3x (proj: 1.6mm actual: 5-600k).
--It turns out the US is in the same boat.
--155mm shell production nearly ground to a halt under Obama (down to 3k/mo). While it increased under Trump, there is currently a manufacturing facility that cost several hundreds of millions of US taxpayer dollars sitting totally unused as we’re about 10x below capacity levels.
--We also produce zero of the gunpowder or precursors needed for gunpowder.
--Given the US was largely settled and founded using gunpowder, this seems pretty short sighted.
--If Trump wants to ramp up manufacturing in the US and rebuild blue-collar jobs, I’d wager that West Virginia coal miners would love the chance to work making gunpowder.
-US Coast Guard cutter Kimball encountered 3 Chinese Navy warships in the Bearing Sea off the coast of Alaska.
-People at Fort Bragg are in hot water as lawmakers are pissed as photos of a slide that labeled pro-life groups as domestic terrorists became public.
-The establishment rags like The Economist are still allowing people who have no sources on the ground and don’t understand MIL logistics to write articles claiming that RUS is going to run out of tanks and barrels.
--This is dangerous, accurate war planning requires on-the-ground reality, not pipe dreams.
-The IDF smoked a Hamas military commander in Gaza and a sanctioned business leader in South Lebanon (the “Godfather of Oil” for Asad) last week.
-Kurdish Special Forces (YAT) captured 3 ISIS militants, weapons, and explosives in a raid in Kurdistan (N. Iraq) last week.
-X user @Brushbeater posted a great infographic-style article from the Center for International Studies titled Secret Studies: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba. Link in the show notes.
-Potential Multiple Shooter Theory Audio & Breakdown was posted on Saturday morning/afternoon
Domestic Politics:
-Obvious top of the news is that a letter was posted to X on Sunday claiming to be from Joe Biden announcing that he was stepping down.
-'Curiously, a message earlier that morning stated that he would not be dropping out, and Biden staffers said they only learned the news via X.
-I listened to Chris Martenson’s analysis of the Trump rally assassination attempt and posted about it on Saturday. --Many are remarking that there were 2 “good guy” shooters, but that doesn’t align with the multiple videos Martenson pulled audio files from to show his work.
--Why would “good guys” be shooting toward Trump, the stage, and the crowd?
-US Intel and DHS are making a big stink about uncovering an Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
--That’s been a “known quantity” for years, so forgive me for calling bullshit.
--It’s notable that Mayorkas was also caught in at least 3 public lies post-assassination attempt.
-More notable that Schumer used a novel measure to prevent his impeachment vote in the Senate.
-A report by the NY Post states that rapes have risen by 11% in NYC thanks to migrants, bail reform, and a depleted NYPD. --How’s voting for a “tough on crime” former cop (Democrat) mayor working out for you, NY? Article in the show notes.
-Jon Tester is running for the Senate in Montana, and I get ads from this dude all the time. --He tries to claim and position himself as a moderate, but he votes with Pelosi 99% of the time.
--Please do your due diligence, red states, there are a lot of progs (some of whom have an R after their name) who will lie through their teeth to get into office.
War/Military:
-Nearly 800 UKR Marines are listed as MIA after a retreat from Krynky. (Article in show notes)
-UKR launched a combined aerial & maritime drone attack on a RUS coast guard base in Crimea (Lake Donuzlav) inflicting damage on a command center, ammo depot, and other infrastructure.
-It came out last week (and we discussed here) that the EU/NATO overstated its ability to manufacture artillery shells for use in UKR by 3x (proj: 1.6mm actual: 5-600k).
--It turns out the US is in the same boat.
--155mm shell production nearly ground to a halt under Obama (down to 3k/mo). While it increased under Trump, there is currently a manufacturing facility that cost several hundreds of millions of US taxpayer dollars sitting totally unused as we’re about 10x below capacity levels.
--We also produce zero of the gunpowder or precursors needed for gunpowder.
--Given the US was largely settled and founded using gunpowder, this seems pretty short sighted.
--If Trump wants to ramp up manufacturing in the US and rebuild blue-collar jobs, I’d wager that West Virginia coal miners would love the chance to work making gunpowder.
-US Coast Guard cutter Kimball encountered 3 Chinese Navy warships in the Bearing Sea off the coast of Alaska.
-People at Fort Bragg are in hot water as lawmakers are pissed as photos of a slide that labeled pro-life groups as domestic terrorists became public.
-The establishment rags like The Economist are still allowing people who have no sources on the ground and don’t understand MIL logistics to write articles claiming that RUS is going to run out of tanks and barrels.
--This is dangerous, accurate war planning requires on-the-ground reality, not pipe dreams.
-The IDF smoked a Hamas military commander in Gaza and a sanctioned business leader in South Lebanon (the “Godfather of Oil” for Asad) last week.
-Kurdish Special Forces (YAT) captured 3 ISIS militants, weapons, and explosives in a raid in Kurdistan (N. Iraq) last week.
-X user @Brushbeater posted a great infographic-style article from the Center for International Studies titled Secret Studies: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba. Link in the show notes.
Rumble
Audio Analysis Is 100% Clear: Trump & Crowd Were Shot At By Two Separate People
There's zero doubt. Two separate weapons were fired toward Trump and the Crowd. One fired 3 rounds, the other(s?) 6 or 7 depending on how many sniper rounds were fired at Crooks. This indicates a cons
Science/Health:
-I follow a bunch of science, health, space, and other types of fact accounts, and thought this one was pretty cool from Fact Point.
--Apparently, space smells like diesel fuel and barbeque (not the killer Haitian rebel leader) due to the combustion of dying stars in our galaxy, which releases polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
Markets/economics:
-Based on the data that we have, it looks like Real GDP is about to cross the Real Fed Funds rate. (@MacroOps chart in the show notes).
--This typically precedes a recession.
--The problem with the Fed is that it’s like a chainsaw rather than a scalpel; the data it uses has lag, and the tools take some time to work and cause a lot of damage in the process, especially if they overshoot or keep them in place for too long.
--As per MacroOps, these can cause feedback loops (rising unemployment leads to loss of jobs, less spending, which results in more layoffs, and less spending, and on and on)
-A chart from Bloomberg seems to signal that hedge funds now have their largest long gold positions in 4 years (chart in the show notes).
-Americans are finally, rightly, getting pissed about the crock of shit they were sold with the “Affordable Care Act” under Obama.
--Remember Nancy Pelosi’s “We have to pass it to find out what’s in it?”
--What was in it was a doubling of the average American family’s healthcare premiums, now up to $24k on average.
--Chart from X user @dantypo in the show notes.
-@Vladtheinflator has another great chart for us showing that FHA (USGOV-backed home loans) have hit a 10.85% delinquency rate, which is the 2nd highest on record (highest was coof, now worse than the GFC). Chart in the show notes.
-In similar but different news, @KobeissiLetter is now telling us that a record 6.7% of US homes listed for sale experienced price drops over the past 4 weeks, which is a record.
-We’ve spoken about the diminishing returns of public spending previously - the current rate is about $0.58 of GDP gained for every $1 spent by US taxpayers.
--For context, in the 1960s every $1 spent generated $9.80, and in 2000 it was $4, according to @KobeissiLetter
-Similar but different, @RandoLand_us just posted a $1,908,092,011 US State Dept grant to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Geopolitics:
-Pakistani CT op arrested Amin ul Haq, a top AQ leader with ties to Bin Ladin (the dead one, not the living son).
-ISIS seems to be regrouping, with recent attacks in Syria, Iraq, and Oman.
-Ursula van der Leyen was just voted in as President of the EU Commission again. She’s not good at it, so expect her to ride that train straight into Casey Jones’ mountain.
Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-A judge has ruled that Trump’s defamation case against the Pulitzer Prize board can move forward.
--This seems to be due to comments made by the board who allowed prizes to be awarded to and kept by the now fully debunked RussiaGate (hoax) reporters. Article in the show notes.
Conspiracy-y:
I mentioned Chris Martenson’s multiple shooter analysis and theory both on Friday and in a post on Saturday. I don’t care if you read my post - please listen to his breakdown and see what you think.
I gave my thoughts in the post and will offer more in the podcast, but this is well-worth the watch, it’s only 20 minutes or so long:
rumble.com/v57hp8j-audio-…
White Pill:
If Neil Howe and The Fourth Turning theory are correct - and 5 of their predictions have already been borne out - it’s not all bad news.
Sure, it’s gonna suck for a while, but it may also create the necessary impetus for “normies” to get off of their ass and demand that people in charge either fix what they’ve broken (really fix this time) or hit the road.
While that may be scary to some, there is certainly something to be learned and gained by choosing the perspective of just “embracing the suck.”
As @Cernovich said in his interview with Tucker Carlson that I shared on Friday, “You’re in the shit bro, what are you gonna do? Give up?”
-I follow a bunch of science, health, space, and other types of fact accounts, and thought this one was pretty cool from Fact Point.
--Apparently, space smells like diesel fuel and barbeque (not the killer Haitian rebel leader) due to the combustion of dying stars in our galaxy, which releases polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
Markets/economics:
-Based on the data that we have, it looks like Real GDP is about to cross the Real Fed Funds rate. (@MacroOps chart in the show notes).
--This typically precedes a recession.
--The problem with the Fed is that it’s like a chainsaw rather than a scalpel; the data it uses has lag, and the tools take some time to work and cause a lot of damage in the process, especially if they overshoot or keep them in place for too long.
--As per MacroOps, these can cause feedback loops (rising unemployment leads to loss of jobs, less spending, which results in more layoffs, and less spending, and on and on)
-A chart from Bloomberg seems to signal that hedge funds now have their largest long gold positions in 4 years (chart in the show notes).
-Americans are finally, rightly, getting pissed about the crock of shit they were sold with the “Affordable Care Act” under Obama.
--Remember Nancy Pelosi’s “We have to pass it to find out what’s in it?”
--What was in it was a doubling of the average American family’s healthcare premiums, now up to $24k on average.
--Chart from X user @dantypo in the show notes.
-@Vladtheinflator has another great chart for us showing that FHA (USGOV-backed home loans) have hit a 10.85% delinquency rate, which is the 2nd highest on record (highest was coof, now worse than the GFC). Chart in the show notes.
-In similar but different news, @KobeissiLetter is now telling us that a record 6.7% of US homes listed for sale experienced price drops over the past 4 weeks, which is a record.
-We’ve spoken about the diminishing returns of public spending previously - the current rate is about $0.58 of GDP gained for every $1 spent by US taxpayers.
--For context, in the 1960s every $1 spent generated $9.80, and in 2000 it was $4, according to @KobeissiLetter
-Similar but different, @RandoLand_us just posted a $1,908,092,011 US State Dept grant to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
Geopolitics:
-Pakistani CT op arrested Amin ul Haq, a top AQ leader with ties to Bin Ladin (the dead one, not the living son).
-ISIS seems to be regrouping, with recent attacks in Syria, Iraq, and Oman.
-Ursula van der Leyen was just voted in as President of the EU Commission again. She’s not good at it, so expect her to ride that train straight into Casey Jones’ mountain.
Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-A judge has ruled that Trump’s defamation case against the Pulitzer Prize board can move forward.
--This seems to be due to comments made by the board who allowed prizes to be awarded to and kept by the now fully debunked RussiaGate (hoax) reporters. Article in the show notes.
Conspiracy-y:
I mentioned Chris Martenson’s multiple shooter analysis and theory both on Friday and in a post on Saturday. I don’t care if you read my post - please listen to his breakdown and see what you think.
I gave my thoughts in the post and will offer more in the podcast, but this is well-worth the watch, it’s only 20 minutes or so long:
rumble.com/v57hp8j-audio-…
White Pill:
If Neil Howe and The Fourth Turning theory are correct - and 5 of their predictions have already been borne out - it’s not all bad news.
Sure, it’s gonna suck for a while, but it may also create the necessary impetus for “normies” to get off of their ass and demand that people in charge either fix what they’ve broken (really fix this time) or hit the road.
While that may be scary to some, there is certainly something to be learned and gained by choosing the perspective of just “embracing the suck.”
As @Cernovich said in his interview with Tucker Carlson that I shared on Friday, “You’re in the shit bro, what are you gonna do? Give up?”
Rumble
Audio Analysis Is 100% Clear: Trump & Crowd Were Shot At By Two Separate People
There's zero doubt. Two separate weapons were fired toward Trump and the Crowd. One fired 3 rounds, the other(s?) 6 or 7 depending on how many sniper rounds were fired at Crooks. This indicates a cons
The only way out is through, and the only way to wake up the normies and zealots is for things to get really bad.
But we need them to be slapped awake if we’re gonna save this thing called America.
Implications:
-ISIS ramping up attacks, Hamas and Hezzies getting smoked by IDF. If Biden’s resignation is a head fake or another Dem gets into office, expect them to go ham (yes, culturally inappropriate pun intended). If Trump wins, bullish on GWOT tools & Tier 1 units to smoke some terrorists.
-You can only fake the funk for so long with finance and The Fed. Wobbly markets, crashing housing prices and inventory gluts (pre-Baby Boomer die-off), auto loan repos, and FHA delinquency records. These are not what makes up the “strong and robust economy” that Biden’s chucklehead surrogates promised.
-Whether you like him or not, if Biden is in fact stepping down, Trump has proven to be the political dynasty bull in a china shop that we needed. Populists on the left and right have more in common about what they want than they know, but they approach it in very different ways. Getting rid of the old guard who broke everything is essential to both, but there is still a long way to go.
The Weekly Read (Monday):
I’ve suggested The Fourth Turning several times, and I wish that every American would read it to understand both our own history and the cycles of history.
Whether you’ve read it or not, co-author Neil Howe sat down for an interview with PBD that I watched on Sunday, and it’s great.
They not only break down the macro elements of this book and what the pair learned writing their previous book Generations, but also outline how the lessons are playing out in real-time right in front of us - and give indications of what can still be expected to come.
youtu.be/EVzmKpw_ges?si…
Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-Not the first time that I’ve said this, but it’s worth repeating: between the markets, lying Feds, wide open borders, unhappy populace, and expected false flags + actual adversary attacks, things are probably gonna get squirrely in the second half of this year. Bullish on guns & ammo.
Links mentioned in the show:
Intro & Outtro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
1AP Media Defamation Crowdfunding Links
givesendgo.com/1APMediaDefama…
788 UKR Marines Listed As MIA After Krnky Retreat
sofx.com/788-ukrainian-…
Trump Defamation Case Against Pulitzer Prize Board Moving Forward
newsmax.com/newsfront/puli…
Rapes Surge By 11% in NYC Due to Bail Reform, Migrants, and Depleted NYPD
nypost.com/2024/07/20/us-…
Secret Studies: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba
features.csis.org/hiddenreach/ch…
Real GDP and Real Fed Funds About to Cross
(Chart won't display on X)
Hedgie Gold Bugs
(Chart won't display on X)
The Not So Affordable Care Act
(Chart won't display on X)
FHA 10.85% Delinquency Rate
(Chart won't display on X)
But we need them to be slapped awake if we’re gonna save this thing called America.
Implications:
-ISIS ramping up attacks, Hamas and Hezzies getting smoked by IDF. If Biden’s resignation is a head fake or another Dem gets into office, expect them to go ham (yes, culturally inappropriate pun intended). If Trump wins, bullish on GWOT tools & Tier 1 units to smoke some terrorists.
-You can only fake the funk for so long with finance and The Fed. Wobbly markets, crashing housing prices and inventory gluts (pre-Baby Boomer die-off), auto loan repos, and FHA delinquency records. These are not what makes up the “strong and robust economy” that Biden’s chucklehead surrogates promised.
-Whether you like him or not, if Biden is in fact stepping down, Trump has proven to be the political dynasty bull in a china shop that we needed. Populists on the left and right have more in common about what they want than they know, but they approach it in very different ways. Getting rid of the old guard who broke everything is essential to both, but there is still a long way to go.
The Weekly Read (Monday):
I’ve suggested The Fourth Turning several times, and I wish that every American would read it to understand both our own history and the cycles of history.
Whether you’ve read it or not, co-author Neil Howe sat down for an interview with PBD that I watched on Sunday, and it’s great.
They not only break down the macro elements of this book and what the pair learned writing their previous book Generations, but also outline how the lessons are playing out in real-time right in front of us - and give indications of what can still be expected to come.
youtu.be/EVzmKpw_ges?si…
Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-Not the first time that I’ve said this, but it’s worth repeating: between the markets, lying Feds, wide open borders, unhappy populace, and expected false flags + actual adversary attacks, things are probably gonna get squirrely in the second half of this year. Bullish on guns & ammo.
Links mentioned in the show:
Intro & Outtro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
1AP Media Defamation Crowdfunding Links
givesendgo.com/1APMediaDefama…
788 UKR Marines Listed As MIA After Krnky Retreat
sofx.com/788-ukrainian-…
Trump Defamation Case Against Pulitzer Prize Board Moving Forward
newsmax.com/newsfront/puli…
Rapes Surge By 11% in NYC Due to Bail Reform, Migrants, and Depleted NYPD
nypost.com/2024/07/20/us-…
Secret Studies: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba
features.csis.org/hiddenreach/ch…
Real GDP and Real Fed Funds About to Cross
(Chart won't display on X)
Hedgie Gold Bugs
(Chart won't display on X)
The Not So Affordable Care Act
(Chart won't display on X)
FHA 10.85% Delinquency Rate
(Chart won't display on X)
YouTube
"History Comes In Patterns" Neil Howe: Civil War, Market Crashes, and The Fourth Turning | PBD #441
Patrick Bet-David sits down with author Neil Howe to discuss the "Fourth Turning" theory and its impact on societal change. Together, they delve into the potential for an impending revolution and what it could mean for the future.
00:00 - Podcast intro
01:13…
00:00 - Podcast intro
01:13…