The Shitshow Macro Weekly Prep Podcast for Mon 4.29.24 is out for premium subscribers at any level:
-Shitshow Macro Podcast 5 (Is the Fed Battling the EU Tyrants) and 7 (Why Are (were) USSOF Troops in North Africa) are up on Substack, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and anywhere else that podcast can be found
Domestic Politics:
-Yet another Biden in more corruption; Joe Biden’s brother Jim has been caught in another shady politcal payola scheme, this time with Qatari leadership - the same ones that are hiding/hosting the billionaire Hamas leadership in luxury highrises in their country.
-Jennifer van Laar of RedState started reporting this weekend on Soros DA Gascon (LA) and his shady, 20-year history. Jennifer is reporting that Gascon has had multiple sexual harassment and retaliation claims against him during his time in law enforcement. She’s also reporting that he was the driving force behind the Soros radical DA installment plan, securing a $50mm donation from Soros to ACLU to facilitate it.
-The (GOP) Wyoming Governor has vetoed a bill that would require proof of residency to vote in the state.
-Flash mobs erupted in Chicago this weekend - prepare for “summer of love” part deux (election edition).
-Reports are starting to come out that the FBI helped the Patriot Front (who made another appearance this weekend) get off scot free after the arrests in Idaho by not turning over evidence to municipal DAs and defense attorneys in a timely manner.
War/Military:
-Israeli Defense Minister announced on Sunday that IDF operations have eliminated ½ of all Hezzbhollah leadership in Southern Lebanon (their primary stronghold).
-UK MOD released video of a Typhoon Eurofighter airstrike that took out a rocket system in Northern Iraq that was being used to target US soldiers.
-Biden is reportedly working on a 10-year $1 trillion military aid bill for UKR, along with a $500 bn “loan” guarantee for rebuilding - that seems to be intended to tie any future POTUS from choosing not to fund the international money laundering machine.
Science/Health:
-Japan’s most senior oncologist has released a public message calling the mRNA vax “evil practice of science” (Video in the show notes)
Markets/economics:
-The Ludwig Institute has reported that the actual unemployment rate is 24.2% (versus the 3.8% reported by BLS).
-JPY further devalued on Sunday, rising to 160 yen per USD, the highest imbalance since 1990 (the BOJ intervened & "saved" it overnight)
-US small bank reserves plummeted by $258bn last week, below the level widely considered to be a constraint.
-Austin real estate is “cooked.” Video in the show notes
-A wild week is coming up for financials:
-Fed will react for the 1st time to rising PCE, PPI, and CPI data
-Powell’s Q&A after the 1st 2-month increase in inflation since Sept 2023
-+20% of S&P 500 earnings reports, including Apple ($AAPL)
-April jobs report comes out on Friday (with, of course, a downward revision expected in a month)
-CRE foreclosures are up 117% this year, with 30% of those foreclosures being in California
-The housing market has cooled in 95 of 100 US metros
Business:
-43% of US SMBs were unable to pay their full rent in April.
-Software development shows the sharpest decline in job openings at 44.8%.
-Ford ($F) reportedly lost $1.2bn on EVs in the first quarter, delays plans to make more.
Geopolitics:
-Canadian authorities arrested 2 former UN workers for arms trafficking to Libya, using their former UN status to facilitate the illicit business.
-Germany has arrested an EU parliment member on charges of spying for China.
-Europe may be waking up - both the ultra-progressive Prime Ministers of Scotland and Spain announced this weekend that they will be stepping down very soon...
-Shitshow Macro Podcast 5 (Is the Fed Battling the EU Tyrants) and 7 (Why Are (were) USSOF Troops in North Africa) are up on Substack, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and anywhere else that podcast can be found
Domestic Politics:
-Yet another Biden in more corruption; Joe Biden’s brother Jim has been caught in another shady politcal payola scheme, this time with Qatari leadership - the same ones that are hiding/hosting the billionaire Hamas leadership in luxury highrises in their country.
-Jennifer van Laar of RedState started reporting this weekend on Soros DA Gascon (LA) and his shady, 20-year history. Jennifer is reporting that Gascon has had multiple sexual harassment and retaliation claims against him during his time in law enforcement. She’s also reporting that he was the driving force behind the Soros radical DA installment plan, securing a $50mm donation from Soros to ACLU to facilitate it.
-The (GOP) Wyoming Governor has vetoed a bill that would require proof of residency to vote in the state.
-Flash mobs erupted in Chicago this weekend - prepare for “summer of love” part deux (election edition).
-Reports are starting to come out that the FBI helped the Patriot Front (who made another appearance this weekend) get off scot free after the arrests in Idaho by not turning over evidence to municipal DAs and defense attorneys in a timely manner.
War/Military:
-Israeli Defense Minister announced on Sunday that IDF operations have eliminated ½ of all Hezzbhollah leadership in Southern Lebanon (their primary stronghold).
-UK MOD released video of a Typhoon Eurofighter airstrike that took out a rocket system in Northern Iraq that was being used to target US soldiers.
-Biden is reportedly working on a 10-year $1 trillion military aid bill for UKR, along with a $500 bn “loan” guarantee for rebuilding - that seems to be intended to tie any future POTUS from choosing not to fund the international money laundering machine.
Science/Health:
-Japan’s most senior oncologist has released a public message calling the mRNA vax “evil practice of science” (Video in the show notes)
Markets/economics:
-The Ludwig Institute has reported that the actual unemployment rate is 24.2% (versus the 3.8% reported by BLS).
-JPY further devalued on Sunday, rising to 160 yen per USD, the highest imbalance since 1990 (the BOJ intervened & "saved" it overnight)
-US small bank reserves plummeted by $258bn last week, below the level widely considered to be a constraint.
-Austin real estate is “cooked.” Video in the show notes
-A wild week is coming up for financials:
-Fed will react for the 1st time to rising PCE, PPI, and CPI data
-Powell’s Q&A after the 1st 2-month increase in inflation since Sept 2023
-+20% of S&P 500 earnings reports, including Apple ($AAPL)
-April jobs report comes out on Friday (with, of course, a downward revision expected in a month)
-CRE foreclosures are up 117% this year, with 30% of those foreclosures being in California
-The housing market has cooled in 95 of 100 US metros
Business:
-43% of US SMBs were unable to pay their full rent in April.
-Software development shows the sharpest decline in job openings at 44.8%.
-Ford ($F) reportedly lost $1.2bn on EVs in the first quarter, delays plans to make more.
Geopolitics:
-Canadian authorities arrested 2 former UN workers for arms trafficking to Libya, using their former UN status to facilitate the illicit business.
-Germany has arrested an EU parliment member on charges of spying for China.
-Europe may be waking up - both the ultra-progressive Prime Ministers of Scotland and Spain announced this weekend that they will be stepping down very soon...
Conspiracy-y:
If you have not read or listened to Shitshow Macro 5: Is the Fed Battling the EU Tyrants, please do. I explained this to a very financially-savvy friend of mine today, and it really helped to open his eyes to something that he just couldn’t wrap his mind around (Congress spending the US into oblivion and rates staying high despite causing an enormous amount of pain to Americans).
Once you understand the theory outlined by Tom Luongo (the basis of the podcast and article), a lot of the things that you’re seeing make a lot of sense. Short term pain to eliminate an existential threat.
White Pill:
Population decline is one of the greatest existential threats to our society - and many societies around the globe - right now. Important a foreign force will not help this situation, as they have no understanding of nor respect for what this country is and the values that it was built upon. Nor will it help the economics as the people streaming across the border are mostly MAMs who, as is well documented, are likely to send most of their money back to their home nation via remittances and have never/will never likely pay into the tax base for the social services they are using.
The only way back from the brink of this potential collapse is to start having kids. The progressive left is moving in the opposite direction due to abortion on demand and transing kids, but the “trad life” calls from conservatives are picking up a lot of steam from some people with extremely large platforms right now.
The only way out is through, and as the Bible tells us, “be fruitful and multiply.”
If you can't have kids, adopt and raise them to be good humans, like my parents (hopefully) did (the final verdict is still out in me, but my sister is great).
Implications:
-As I said on friday, the economic conditions continue to worsen to the point that it can’t be hidden much longer. Many market watchers (the honest ones, at least) have seen this coming for quite some time - but as I like to say here, “the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent.”
-The campus protestors had a brief tussle with cops in some locations, but it seems they have retaken their ground in nearly all of them - with the ones at UCLA using the popular terrorist tactic of using kids as human shields to dissuade cops from doing anything. As I said Friday - get your kids home if they are on any of these campuses full of terrorist-friendly dingbats.
-Polls have shown for the past 13-weeks that Trump’s favorability based on performance is passed the 50% mark, while Biden’s is below 40%. I try to remain as apolitical or ideological as possible here, so I’ll report that with only one comment. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
The Weekly Read (Monday):
The Boy Crisis by Warren Farrell, PhD
Macro takeaways/lessons from the week:
I things are nasty and starting to get scary - but they will get worse before they get better. But they will get better - it’s just a matter of how much nasty we have to trudge through first. Chin up and drive on, Airborne.
Links mentioned in the show:
Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
Austin Real Estate Is “Cooked”
x.com/FinancialPhys/…
Japan’s Most Senior Oncologist Calls Vax “Evil Practice of Science”
x.com/_aussie17/stat…
If you have not read or listened to Shitshow Macro 5: Is the Fed Battling the EU Tyrants, please do. I explained this to a very financially-savvy friend of mine today, and it really helped to open his eyes to something that he just couldn’t wrap his mind around (Congress spending the US into oblivion and rates staying high despite causing an enormous amount of pain to Americans).
Once you understand the theory outlined by Tom Luongo (the basis of the podcast and article), a lot of the things that you’re seeing make a lot of sense. Short term pain to eliminate an existential threat.
White Pill:
Population decline is one of the greatest existential threats to our society - and many societies around the globe - right now. Important a foreign force will not help this situation, as they have no understanding of nor respect for what this country is and the values that it was built upon. Nor will it help the economics as the people streaming across the border are mostly MAMs who, as is well documented, are likely to send most of their money back to their home nation via remittances and have never/will never likely pay into the tax base for the social services they are using.
The only way back from the brink of this potential collapse is to start having kids. The progressive left is moving in the opposite direction due to abortion on demand and transing kids, but the “trad life” calls from conservatives are picking up a lot of steam from some people with extremely large platforms right now.
The only way out is through, and as the Bible tells us, “be fruitful and multiply.”
If you can't have kids, adopt and raise them to be good humans, like my parents (hopefully) did (the final verdict is still out in me, but my sister is great).
Implications:
-As I said on friday, the economic conditions continue to worsen to the point that it can’t be hidden much longer. Many market watchers (the honest ones, at least) have seen this coming for quite some time - but as I like to say here, “the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent.”
-The campus protestors had a brief tussle with cops in some locations, but it seems they have retaken their ground in nearly all of them - with the ones at UCLA using the popular terrorist tactic of using kids as human shields to dissuade cops from doing anything. As I said Friday - get your kids home if they are on any of these campuses full of terrorist-friendly dingbats.
-Polls have shown for the past 13-weeks that Trump’s favorability based on performance is passed the 50% mark, while Biden’s is below 40%. I try to remain as apolitical or ideological as possible here, so I’ll report that with only one comment. “It’s the economy, stupid.”
The Weekly Read (Monday):
The Boy Crisis by Warren Farrell, PhD
Macro takeaways/lessons from the week:
I things are nasty and starting to get scary - but they will get worse before they get better. But they will get better - it’s just a matter of how much nasty we have to trudge through first. Chin up and drive on, Airborne.
Links mentioned in the show:
Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
Austin Real Estate Is “Cooked”
x.com/FinancialPhys/…
Japan’s Most Senior Oncologist Calls Vax “Evil Practice of Science”
x.com/_aussie17/stat…
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Financial Physics (@FinancialPhys) on X
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