-The Fed’s final meeting for the year and next Fed Funds Rate decision will come this week on December 18.
-Many analysts are expecting another rate cut - but most have been wrong on those predictions this year, so we shall see.
-The media has magically decided to start reporting on rising inflation now that the election has passed, so “normies” should be prepared to see a far bleaker economic picture than they’ve been sold for the past 4 years.
--Case in point, from @Not_the_Bee: store closures are up 69% since last year, with some 7,100 retail store closures in 2024 alone:
notthebee.com/article/store-…
-Which way, Japan?
--It’s quite funny to see competing narratives collide in the financial press sometimes.
--Ex 1: Japan October machinery orders rise on strong manufacturing sector (Reuters):
finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-oct…
--Ex 2: Japan’s factory activity softens for 6th straight month, PMI shows (Reuters):
finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-fa…
--Somebody missed a memo on which narrative to go with, perhaps.
-As of Sunday evening, the futures for all of the major US indices were up (green), while oil and gold were down (red).
-Currency pairs are a little interesting as of Sunday evening (as of the time of this writing):
--EUR/USD: (up) $1.0518
--USD/JPY: (up) $153.7410
--USD/GBP: (down) $0.7915
--USD/AUD: (down) $1.5698
--USD/CAD: (down) $1.4221
--USD/MXN: (down) $20.1010
-According to @FinanceLancelot and a Bloomberg terminal share from @AnnaEconomist (Anna Wong), it seems those 785k Gov jobs created (to juice Biden-Harris admin “jobs” numbers) are set to terminate in December.
-@DowdEdward was on @Bannons_WarRoom this weekend to discuss the latest and largest massive BLS downward revision of the Biden-Harris administration.
--As I’ve said many times this year, trillions of dollars have been invested, spent, or allocated based on outright fraudulent numbers from BLS.
--Don’t take my word for it, as Ed lays it out far more cohesively than this knuckle dragger (me) can:
x.com/Bannons_WarRoo…
Business:
-HSBC Bank of Australia is being sued by Australian regulators after what they call failures to protect customers who lost millions to scams.
-According to @chigrl there are $500bn worth of CRE mortgages set to be refinanced next year. Her post (below) includes a quote from a Florida Atlantic University study that “a significant portion of them are going to go into default” and that “there are going to be fire sales.”
--If you don’t know the CRE space, Commercial Real Estate mortgages are not like your 30-year home loan. These are required to be refinanced every 3-7 years in most cases.
--When the rates go away from you, it can get ugly (as it is likely about to do, barring some major change).
x.com/chigrl/status/…
--Chart from Bloomberg (shared by Tracy) in the show notes.
Geopolitics:
-As mentioned above, South Korean President Yoon was impeached over the weekend.
--We’ll cover this in the upcoming longform, but his implementation of martial law came very soon after visits from UKR and Biden-Harris dignitaries.
--80% of his population didn’t want their weapons going to UKR, and he’d already been caught in a slight-of-hand to do so previously.
--There’s good reason to think the martial law was another game being played to repeat in defiance of the will of his constituents.
-The pro-EU, French-born and former French Government official President of the nation of Georgia has now lost the 2nd round of elections in that country.
--She has again publicly stated that she’s not going anywhere.
--For the sake of democracy, of course.
Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-A group of Virginia teachers who have been in a legal battle with their school since 2022 reached a settlement last week and will not have to use “preferred pronouns” for students.
--From @Not_the_Bee :
notthebee.com/article/virgin…
-Many analysts are expecting another rate cut - but most have been wrong on those predictions this year, so we shall see.
-The media has magically decided to start reporting on rising inflation now that the election has passed, so “normies” should be prepared to see a far bleaker economic picture than they’ve been sold for the past 4 years.
--Case in point, from @Not_the_Bee: store closures are up 69% since last year, with some 7,100 retail store closures in 2024 alone:
notthebee.com/article/store-…
-Which way, Japan?
--It’s quite funny to see competing narratives collide in the financial press sometimes.
--Ex 1: Japan October machinery orders rise on strong manufacturing sector (Reuters):
finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-oct…
--Ex 2: Japan’s factory activity softens for 6th straight month, PMI shows (Reuters):
finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-fa…
--Somebody missed a memo on which narrative to go with, perhaps.
-As of Sunday evening, the futures for all of the major US indices were up (green), while oil and gold were down (red).
-Currency pairs are a little interesting as of Sunday evening (as of the time of this writing):
--EUR/USD: (up) $1.0518
--USD/JPY: (up) $153.7410
--USD/GBP: (down) $0.7915
--USD/AUD: (down) $1.5698
--USD/CAD: (down) $1.4221
--USD/MXN: (down) $20.1010
-According to @FinanceLancelot and a Bloomberg terminal share from @AnnaEconomist (Anna Wong), it seems those 785k Gov jobs created (to juice Biden-Harris admin “jobs” numbers) are set to terminate in December.
-@DowdEdward was on @Bannons_WarRoom this weekend to discuss the latest and largest massive BLS downward revision of the Biden-Harris administration.
--As I’ve said many times this year, trillions of dollars have been invested, spent, or allocated based on outright fraudulent numbers from BLS.
--Don’t take my word for it, as Ed lays it out far more cohesively than this knuckle dragger (me) can:
x.com/Bannons_WarRoo…
Business:
-HSBC Bank of Australia is being sued by Australian regulators after what they call failures to protect customers who lost millions to scams.
-According to @chigrl there are $500bn worth of CRE mortgages set to be refinanced next year. Her post (below) includes a quote from a Florida Atlantic University study that “a significant portion of them are going to go into default” and that “there are going to be fire sales.”
--If you don’t know the CRE space, Commercial Real Estate mortgages are not like your 30-year home loan. These are required to be refinanced every 3-7 years in most cases.
--When the rates go away from you, it can get ugly (as it is likely about to do, barring some major change).
x.com/chigrl/status/…
--Chart from Bloomberg (shared by Tracy) in the show notes.
Geopolitics:
-As mentioned above, South Korean President Yoon was impeached over the weekend.
--We’ll cover this in the upcoming longform, but his implementation of martial law came very soon after visits from UKR and Biden-Harris dignitaries.
--80% of his population didn’t want their weapons going to UKR, and he’d already been caught in a slight-of-hand to do so previously.
--There’s good reason to think the martial law was another game being played to repeat in defiance of the will of his constituents.
-The pro-EU, French-born and former French Government official President of the nation of Georgia has now lost the 2nd round of elections in that country.
--She has again publicly stated that she’s not going anywhere.
--For the sake of democracy, of course.
Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-A group of Virginia teachers who have been in a legal battle with their school since 2022 reached a settlement last week and will not have to use “preferred pronouns” for students.
--From @Not_the_Bee :
notthebee.com/article/virgin…
Conspiracy-y:
As with anything that the USGOV obviously knows about but is unwilling to provide a comprehensive (or any) explanation for, the drones in NJ thing hit total sanity ejection trajectory over the weekend.
I mean - there were some doozies out there. Really off the wall stuff. Unfortunately, none of them would really be a non-zero probability based on the total Shitshow that 2024 has been so far, so…there’s that.
However, as a guy who has told you routinely that I’m game to listen to any “conspiracy theory” as there are multiple variation of them and their provenance, there was always one aspect of these that deserved a rational explanation: I don’t think aliens (space) or Iranians (foreign) would be utilizing FAA-required lighting.
From “ALIENS!” to nuke sniffers (still a potential) to enemy to an anti-ballistic missile system to a previously publicly-announced test, there were a ton of theories out there.
And honestly, you can’t blame anyone. This administration (and year) has been so jacked up at every level that it’s hard not to jump to the nefarious and far-out explanations. However, Occam’s Razor is a thing.
Sometimes, the simplest answer is the one.
White Pill:
We’re in the midst of another Great Awakening-level resurgence of Faith in this country, and that’s as White Pill as it gets. We knew that people were finding their way to personal Faith, but seeing it show up in movies and book preferences is another level up for that,
When it moves beyond simple weekend services and into genuine topics of entertainment, that’s a great sign overall for the country.
Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-President Trump is showing through his nominations that he learned from the 1st admin mistakes about personnel and that he now understands how the Deep State worked against him. Personnel is policy, and both look pretty darn good for the next round.
-CNN and ABC are just the latest media companies to learn that the “wrap up smear” and “trial by media” game isn’t going to work or be a financially feasible business model going forward. Let’s hope this begins to change some things and bring honesty back into the media.
-Both NATO and the EU are in quite a few rough spots right now. Virtue signalling will only take you so far, and it won’t pay the bills.
Implications:
The population around the Western world are finally making their displeasure with the status quo known, and the requisite Deep States around the world are pushing and fighting back wherever and whenever they can.
Even the paid and shipped in professional agitators in the country of Georgia this weekend stopped carrying their pro-EU flags and seemed to have the “wind taken out of their sails” in the final days of the rent-a-riots there.
There is nothing that can stop an idea whose time has come.
It seems like the time has come that the idea of personal freedom from petty tyrants is back en vogue and taking the stage.
The Weekly Read (Monday):
The Book of Romans
Again, i’m on my front-to-back Bible reading, and found another passage that I felt was quite appropriate given the time, circumstances, and potential near-term future:
Romans 5:3
Not only so, but we also rejoice in our sufferings, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope.
Links mentioned in the show:
Intro & Outtro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
CRE/CMBS Potential Crisis
As with anything that the USGOV obviously knows about but is unwilling to provide a comprehensive (or any) explanation for, the drones in NJ thing hit total sanity ejection trajectory over the weekend.
I mean - there were some doozies out there. Really off the wall stuff. Unfortunately, none of them would really be a non-zero probability based on the total Shitshow that 2024 has been so far, so…there’s that.
However, as a guy who has told you routinely that I’m game to listen to any “conspiracy theory” as there are multiple variation of them and their provenance, there was always one aspect of these that deserved a rational explanation: I don’t think aliens (space) or Iranians (foreign) would be utilizing FAA-required lighting.
From “ALIENS!” to nuke sniffers (still a potential) to enemy to an anti-ballistic missile system to a previously publicly-announced test, there were a ton of theories out there.
And honestly, you can’t blame anyone. This administration (and year) has been so jacked up at every level that it’s hard not to jump to the nefarious and far-out explanations. However, Occam’s Razor is a thing.
Sometimes, the simplest answer is the one.
White Pill:
We’re in the midst of another Great Awakening-level resurgence of Faith in this country, and that’s as White Pill as it gets. We knew that people were finding their way to personal Faith, but seeing it show up in movies and book preferences is another level up for that,
When it moves beyond simple weekend services and into genuine topics of entertainment, that’s a great sign overall for the country.
Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-President Trump is showing through his nominations that he learned from the 1st admin mistakes about personnel and that he now understands how the Deep State worked against him. Personnel is policy, and both look pretty darn good for the next round.
-CNN and ABC are just the latest media companies to learn that the “wrap up smear” and “trial by media” game isn’t going to work or be a financially feasible business model going forward. Let’s hope this begins to change some things and bring honesty back into the media.
-Both NATO and the EU are in quite a few rough spots right now. Virtue signalling will only take you so far, and it won’t pay the bills.
Implications:
The population around the Western world are finally making their displeasure with the status quo known, and the requisite Deep States around the world are pushing and fighting back wherever and whenever they can.
Even the paid and shipped in professional agitators in the country of Georgia this weekend stopped carrying their pro-EU flags and seemed to have the “wind taken out of their sails” in the final days of the rent-a-riots there.
There is nothing that can stop an idea whose time has come.
It seems like the time has come that the idea of personal freedom from petty tyrants is back en vogue and taking the stage.
The Weekly Read (Monday):
The Book of Romans
Again, i’m on my front-to-back Bible reading, and found another passage that I felt was quite appropriate given the time, circumstances, and potential near-term future:
Romans 5:3
Not only so, but we also rejoice in our sufferings, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope.
Links mentioned in the show:
Intro & Outtro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3…
CRE/CMBS Potential Crisis