1st Amendment Praetorian
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1AP is a group of military, law enforcement & intel community vets who protect Americans. https://1APraetorian.com
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Science/Health:
-I follow a bunch of science, health, space, and other types of fact accounts, and thought this one was pretty cool from Fact Point.
--Apparently, space smells like diesel fuel and barbeque (not the killer Haitian rebel leader) due to the combustion of dying stars in our galaxy, which releases polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

Markets/economics:
-Based on the data that we have, it looks like Real GDP is about to cross the Real Fed Funds rate. (@MacroOps chart in the show notes).
--This typically precedes a recession.
--The problem with the Fed is that it’s like a chainsaw rather than a scalpel; the data it uses has lag, and the tools take some time to work and cause a lot of damage in the process, especially if they overshoot or keep them in place for too long.
--As per MacroOps, these can cause feedback loops (rising unemployment leads to loss of jobs, less spending, which results in more layoffs, and less spending, and on and on)

-A chart from Bloomberg seems to signal that hedge funds now have their largest long gold positions in 4 years (chart in the show notes).

-Americans are finally, rightly, getting pissed about the crock of shit they were sold with the “Affordable Care Act” under Obama.
--Remember Nancy Pelosi’s “We have to pass it to find out what’s in it?”
--What was in it was a doubling of the average American family’s healthcare premiums, now up to $24k on average.
--Chart from X user @dantypo in the show notes.

-@Vladtheinflator has another great chart for us showing that FHA (USGOV-backed home loans) have hit a 10.85% delinquency rate, which is the 2nd highest on record (highest was coof, now worse than the GFC). Chart in the show notes.

-In similar but different news, @KobeissiLetter is now telling us that a record 6.7% of US homes listed for sale experienced price drops over the past 4 weeks, which is a record.

-We’ve spoken about the diminishing returns of public spending previously - the current rate is about $0.58 of GDP gained for every $1 spent by US taxpayers.
--For context, in the 1960s every $1 spent generated $9.80, and in 2000 it was $4, according to @KobeissiLetter

-Similar but different, @RandoLand_us just posted a $1,908,092,011 US State Dept grant to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees

Geopolitics:
-Pakistani CT op arrested Amin ul Haq, a top AQ leader with ties to Bin Ladin (the dead one, not the living son).

-ISIS seems to be regrouping, with recent attacks in Syria, Iraq, and Oman.

-Ursula van der Leyen was just voted in as President of the EU Commission again. She’s not good at it, so expect her to ride that train straight into Casey Jones’ mountain.

Social dynamics/societal/culture war/Legal:
-A judge has ruled that Trump’s defamation case against the Pulitzer Prize board can move forward.
--This seems to be due to comments made by the board who allowed prizes to be awarded to and kept by the now fully debunked RussiaGate (hoax) reporters. Article in the show notes.

Conspiracy-y:
I mentioned Chris Martenson’s multiple shooter analysis and theory both on Friday and in a post on Saturday. I don’t care if you read my post - please listen to his breakdown and see what you think.

I gave my thoughts in the post and will offer more in the podcast, but this is well-worth the watch, it’s only 20 minutes or so long:

rumble.com/v57hp8j-audio-

White Pill:
If Neil Howe and The Fourth Turning theory are correct - and 5 of their predictions have already been borne out - it’s not all bad news.

Sure, it’s gonna suck for a while, but it may also create the necessary impetus for “normies” to get off of their ass and demand that people in charge either fix what they’ve broken (really fix this time) or hit the road.

While that may be scary to some, there is certainly something to be learned and gained by choosing the perspective of just “embracing the suck.”

As @Cernovich said in his interview with Tucker Carlson that I shared on Friday, “You’re in the shit bro, what are you gonna do? Give up?”
The only way out is through, and the only way to wake up the normies and zealots is for things to get really bad.

But we need them to be slapped awake if we’re gonna save this thing called America.

Implications:
-ISIS ramping up attacks, Hamas and Hezzies getting smoked by IDF. If Biden’s resignation is a head fake or another Dem gets into office, expect them to go ham (yes, culturally inappropriate pun intended). If Trump wins, bullish on GWOT tools & Tier 1 units to smoke some terrorists.

-You can only fake the funk for so long with finance and The Fed. Wobbly markets, crashing housing prices and inventory gluts (pre-Baby Boomer die-off), auto loan repos, and FHA delinquency records. These are not what makes up the “strong and robust economy” that Biden’s chucklehead surrogates promised.

-Whether you like him or not, if Biden is in fact stepping down, Trump has proven to be the political dynasty bull in a china shop that we needed. Populists on the left and right have more in common about what they want than they know, but they approach it in very different ways. Getting rid of the old guard who broke everything is essential to both, but there is still a long way to go.

The Weekly Read (Monday):
I’ve suggested The Fourth Turning several times, and I wish that every American would read it to understand both our own history and the cycles of history.

Whether you’ve read it or not, co-author Neil Howe sat down for an interview with PBD that I watched on Sunday, and it’s great.

They not only break down the macro elements of this book and what the pair learned writing their previous book Generations, but also outline how the lessons are playing out in real-time right in front of us - and give indications of what can still be expected to come.

youtu.be/EVzmKpw_ges?si

Macro takeaways/lessons for the week:
-Not the first time that I’ve said this, but it’s worth repeating: between the markets, lying Feds, wide open borders, unhappy populace, and expected false flags + actual adversary attacks, things are probably gonna get squirrely in the second half of this year. Bullish on guns & ammo.

Links mentioned in the show:

Intro & Outtro music: Blind by Mike Amabile and Run Over Twice
open.spotify.com/track/6SG99nL3

1AP Media Defamation Crowdfunding Links
givesendgo.com/1APMediaDefama

788 UKR Marines Listed As MIA After Krnky Retreat
sofx.com/788-ukrainian-

Trump Defamation Case Against Pulitzer Prize Board Moving Forward
newsmax.com/newsfront/puli

Rapes Surge By 11% in NYC Due to Bail Reform, Migrants, and Depleted NYPD
nypost.com/2024/07/20/us-

Secret Studies: Decoding China’s Intelligence Activities in Cuba
features.csis.org/hiddenreach/ch

Real GDP and Real Fed Funds About to Cross
(Chart won't display on X)

Hedgie Gold Bugs
(Chart won't display on X)

The Not So Affordable Care Act
(Chart won't display on X)

FHA 10.85% Delinquency Rate
(Chart won't display on X)
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
Forwarded from CognitiveCarbon Public (Cognitive Carbon)
Forwarded from CognitiveCarbon Public (Cognitive Carbon)
Chaos. Every bit of it deserved.
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)
Forwarded from The Library (Harold Finch)