Forwarded from Captain Keshel and Co. American Election Integrity HQ
538 is apparently being pressured to alter its algorithms to produce 54% national likelihood that Biden wins the election, despite their site also housing all the polls that show Trump winning nationally and in the key states.
Should you give a rat’s ass?
Well, here is their model showing Trump only 70% likely to win Florida.
Florida has had a swing of roughly ONE MILLION in registrations toward the GOP since 2020, just gave all statewide candidates high double digit margins in 2022, will probably see Miami go red, and has all 67 counties on a GOP registration trend.
Donald Trump is now a resident of Florida.
The only abnormal thing Florida will do this year is vote against the incumbent for the first time since 1980, and even that is off a bit because most Americans view Trump as the rightfully elected president in 2020, so it would stick with the grain in that regard.
Donald Trump has close to 100% odds of carrying FL, and by probably more than Texas.
538 is trash.
Should you give a rat’s ass?
Well, here is their model showing Trump only 70% likely to win Florida.
Florida has had a swing of roughly ONE MILLION in registrations toward the GOP since 2020, just gave all statewide candidates high double digit margins in 2022, will probably see Miami go red, and has all 67 counties on a GOP registration trend.
Donald Trump is now a resident of Florida.
The only abnormal thing Florida will do this year is vote against the incumbent for the first time since 1980, and even that is off a bit because most Americans view Trump as the rightfully elected president in 2020, so it would stick with the grain in that regard.
Donald Trump has close to 100% odds of carrying FL, and by probably more than Texas.
538 is trash.