Financial World Updates
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Received real time updates about the Financial World 🌎

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Russian tanker successfully crosses the Strait of Hormuz.


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An unknown trader bought $12M worth of S&P 500 call options just hours before Trump announced a ceasefire on Tuesday.

The position:
6,800 SPX 6950 calls (expiring May 8), opened when the index was at 6556.

After the announcement, equities jumped. The trade turned into ~$35M, locking in about $23M profit in a single day.
At the same time, someone dumped ~8,600 lots of Brent and WTI futures worth ~$950M ahead of the news.
Oil dropped 15%, falling below $100 per barrel.

This isn’t the first time.
On March 23, traders sold ~$500M in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay in strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Same reaction: oil down ~15%.
Same pattern: positioning before headlines.


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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has released the first two stablecoin issuer licenses:

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Anchorpoint Financial Limited (a joint venture between Standard Chartered Bank, Animoca Brands, and Hong Kong Telecom).


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TotalEnergies announced the Saudi SATORP oil refinery will be indefinitely shut down following recent Iranian strikes.


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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Macro USA:

Consumer Price Index
(CPI; March):

β€’ m/m: 0.9% (forecast: 0.3%; prior: 0.2%)
β€’ y/y: 3.3% (forecast: 3.4%; prior: 2.4%);
β€’ Core CPI (y/y): 2.6% (forecast: 2.7%; prior: 2.5%).


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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US gas prices saw their biggest jump in CPI data since 1967.


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A "miraculous" trade that anticipated a 15% drop in crude oil has led to new restrictions in Washington. Just before the US announced a ceasefire with Iran, over half a billion dollars in oil futures changed hands.

The Fallout:

β€’ Trading Ban: White House staff are prohibited from using non-public info for futures bets.
β€’ The Catalyst: A $500M short position opened 60 seconds before the news.
β€’ Investigation: Officials are looking for the source of the leak.


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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. energy inflation soars +10.9% in March, the biggest monthly increase since 2005.


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Trump tells Iran that they "have no cards" other than the Strait of Hormuz.


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πŸ‡΅πŸ‡° Pakistan's Prime Minister says U.S. and Iranian leaders will begin talks tomorrow in Islamabad.


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🚨 Cloudflare lost over $9 billion in market cap after Anthropic announced its new AI cybersecurity model.


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πŸ‡΅πŸ‡° Pakistan says US and Iran expected to hold direct face-to-face talks soon as both delegations arrive in Islamabad.


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TRUMP:

"We have more oil than the next two largest oil companies combined."


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πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China to halt sulfuric acid exports starting in May.


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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US has discussed unfreezing Iran’s overseas assets, including $6 billion held in Qatar, with Pakistani mediators, per FT.

The $6 billion in Iranian funds now held by Qatar have been frozen since 2018.


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πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¦ Saudi Arabia fully restores East-West oil pipeline, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and pumping 7,000,000 barrels per day.


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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trump announces the U.S. will blockade all ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as Polymarket odds of oil hitting $110 in April stand at 52%.


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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Trump says stock market has not declined significantly since the war.


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🚨🚨 Google search interest for "price of oil" spiked to its highest level on record in data going back to 2004.

This exceeds the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war and 2008 Financial Crisis peaks by +300%.


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🚨 "Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz." - President Donald J. Trump


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