๐บ๐ธ US Initial Jobless Claims:
Actual: 207k
Expected: 215k
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US stock market erases losses and flips green after Israel and Lebanon agree to 10-day ceasefire.
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๐บ๐ธ President Trump says "oil prices are coming down."
Today, Brent crude oil is up more than 4%, rising above $100 a barrel.
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Elon Musk says universal high income from the Federal government "is the best way to deal with unemployment caused by AI."
"AI/robotics will produce goods & services far in excess of the increase in the money supply, so there will not be inflation."
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President Trump says the Iran war should be ending soon, with both sides potentially meeting this weekend to reach a deal.
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Markets seem to be pricing in a โyesโ for now:
โข Brent oil stays below $100
โข S&P 500 hits new highs
โข BTC holds near $75K and looks ready to move.
Volatility setup:
โข BTC has been unusually quiet for 3 days โ 4H structure signals a coming impulse
โข Weekend narrative: potential USโIran talks
โข No official confirmation yet โ risk of another failed round
Expected range: $70Kโ$77K
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๐ต๐ฐ Pakistan-flagged oil tanker Shalamar passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, Bloomberg reports.
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Over the past decade, ~70% of global gold demand has come from emerging markets.
China alone accounts for ~27%, India ~21%. Together, nearly half of total demand.
That shifts the way gold moves.
When demand is concentrated in regions with different macro cycles, currency pressure, and capital controls, gold behaves less like a clean โinflation hedgeโ and more like a global liquidity asset.
On the supply side, ~74% comes from mining and only ~26% from recycling.
That makes supply slow and hard to adjust.
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The U.S. and Iran are in talks over a possible deal in which Washington would release about $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile.
Negotiations have made progress but key disagreements remain, including how the uranium would be handled and how long Iran would pause its nuclear program.
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๐ซ๐ท French President Macron welcomed British PM Keir Starmer to the รlysรฉe Palace.
After their lunch meeting they will host a video call with about 40 countries regarding a multinational effort to restore safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz when security conditions permit.
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US-Iran peace talks expected in Pakistan this weekend, likely Sunday.
US oil prices are dropping below $90 per barrel following the news.
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Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for business and full passage, but the naval blockade on Iran will remain in full force until their transaction is 100% complete.
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Global equity inflows increased last week, while money market funds saw a record weekly outflow, indicating a rise in risk-on sentiment, according to LSEG data.
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๐ฆ๐ช First cruise ship passes through the Strait of Hormuz after being docked in Dubai, UAE for 47 days.
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Iran says control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state after the U.S. continued the blockade.
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๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท Iran Deputy FM says no date set for next round of U.S. talks. Trump โtweets a lot, talks a lot.โ
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๐บ๐ธ TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL:
Has anybody looked at how badly the country of Spain is doing. Their financial numbers, despite contributing almost nothing to NATO and their military defense, are absolutely horrendous. Sad to watch!!!
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