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🇯🇵 TARIFFS: Japan asked the United States not to disadvantage Tokyo under new tariff rules that could raise duties on Japanese goods to 15%.


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🇺🇸 Average US gas prices rise to $3.45 for the first time since September 2024.


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🇺🇸 US oil prices fall -$15/barrel in under 2 hours, now trading below $104/barrel, on reports that G7 countries are considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves.



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If the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, oil prices could surge toward an inflation-adjusted record near $215 per barrel.

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🇰🇷 Bank of Korea to buy up to 3T Won of government bonds.


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Elon Musk:

"China is rapidly reducing dependence on oil."


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The sharp surge in oil prices following the U.S.–Iran conflict is increasing fears of stagflation in the U.S. economy.

Oil has jumped from around $70 to nearly $120 in just a few days — roughly a $50 increase since the last inflation report.
Historically, every $10 rise in oil adds about +0.2% to U.S. inflation and reduces GDP growth by ~0.1%.

With the current CPI at 2.4% and GDP growth at 1.4%, the oil shock could push inflation toward ~3.5%, while economic growth may slow to around 0.8% — a classic stagflation scenario where prices rise while the economy weakens.
This puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position:

• Raise rates → risk slowing the economy further
• Cut rates → risk fueling inflation

For now, markets are hoping for a quick de-escalation of the conflict and a drop in oil prices.


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🇮🇷 Iran warns oil could hit $200 a barrel if neighbors fail to restrain Trump.

“If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” said a Revolutionary Guards spokesman.


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USOIL dropped -19% following G7 countries reportedly considering releasing 400 million barrels of crude oil from reserves.


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Key Events This Week

The week is centered around US inflation. Wednesday brings the February CPI report, while Friday delivers a dense macro block with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, GDP data, and labor market indicators. Markets will mainly be watching whether inflation continues to cool or remains sticky enough to delay rate cuts.


➡️ Monday

● US Daylight Saving Time shift

US markets move to daylight saving time, which shifts the trading schedule relative to Europe and other regions. For many traders outside the US, the New York session and US data will arrive one hour earlier.


➡️ Tuesday

● Oracle $ORCL earnings
● Existing Home Sales

Oracle earnings may influence sentiment around enterprise tech and AI infrastructure. Housing data gives a quick read on demand in the US property market under current mortgage rates.


➡️ Wednesday

● February CPI Inflation data

This is the key macro release of the week. The report shows how quickly consumer prices are rising and strongly influences expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy.


➡️ Thursday

● Initial Jobless Claims
● Adobe $ADBE earnings

Jobless claims provide an early signal of labor market conditions. Adobe earnings will be watched for signals about enterprise software demand and broader tech spending.


➡️ Friday

● Core PCE Inflation data
● Q4 GDP data
● JOLTS Job Openings
● Consumer Sentiment

Main focus: Wednesday’s CPI and Friday’s macro cluster.


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🇸🇦 World's largest oil company Saudi Aramco cuts production at two oil fields, Reuters reports.


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🇺🇸 Over $900 billion wiped out from US stock market at open.


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🚨 $700,000,000,000 wiped out from US stock market today.


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G7 official says energy ministers meet Tuesday and leaders later this week, with leaders likely deciding on oil reserve releases as timing and analysis are still needed.


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🇺🇸 Anthropic sues US government after being labeled a national security risk.


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EU warns long Mideast war risks 'stagflationary shock' to world economy.


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Putin says the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.


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Russia ready to supply energy to Europe if it asks.


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$4.8 trillion JPMorgan says the S&P 500 could fall by 10%.


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