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📈 Job openings in the US increased by 9,000 to 7.594 million in May 2026, the highest since May 2024 and well above market expectations of 7.30 million, highlighting labor market resilience despite rising energy costs from the Iran conflict. The number of job openings increased in wholesale trade (+71,000), accommodation and food services (+62,000), real estate and rental and leasing (+40,000), but fell in health care and social assistance (-115,000) and finance and insurance (-69,000). Regionally, openings rose in the South (+88,000), and the Midwest (+115,000), but fell in the Northeast (-88,000) and the West (-105,000). Over the month, hires were unchanged at 5.2 million, while total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) changed little, while layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were unchanged.

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🏛 Warsh Faces a Crucial Test… Will He Resist Wall Street’s Pressure to Hike Rates?

Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, Wall Street is effectively pricing in a rate hike on behalf of the Federal Reserve, with contracts assigning nearly a 40% probability to a 25-basis-point increase, alongside pricing in 28 basis points of tightening through September and 45 basis points by the end of the year.

📊 The Market’s View on Warsh:

Treating him as if he is preparing to open a new hiking cycle
Even though the latest inflation data provided the strongest case to wait
June’s core inflation reading came in remarkably soft
Showing no signs of a hot demand wave or an acceleration that requires urgent cooling

🤖 Artificial Intelligence Adds a Hidden Risk:

AI has begun reducing the need for white-collar and professional service jobs
The expansion of this trend will weigh on wages and weaken household spending
A deflationary force that could gradually surface by 2027
Raising rates before its impact becomes clear could add monetary tightening on top of technological tightening already occurring in the labor market

📌 Analysts Noted:

"Pricing consecutive rate hikes over the next two years is overdone; current inflation does not provide sufficient justification, and shifts in employment tend to reduce price pressures over time."

⚠️ The Risk of a Hike: The Market’s Reaction, Not the Rate Increase Itself

Raising rates following a soft inflation reading would lead the market to conclude that the Fed has become overly sensitive to prices
Expectations could quickly jump from two hikes to three within a short period, even without any change in the underlying data

📈 Cascading Effects:

A spike in short-term bond yields
A stronger dollar and tighter credit conditions
A drop in stock valuations
Financial conditions becoming far more restrictive than intended by the Committee

🗣 The Communication Dilemma:

If the Fed hikes once and then pauses, the market will accuse it of hesitation
If it continues hiking to protect its reputation, it risks pushing the economy into an unnecessary slowdown not warranted by current numbers

🧠 Analysts Added:

"Warsh knows that markets do not just price the decision itself; they price what they believe the decision reveals about upcoming meetings."

🎯 Pausing is the Most Hawkish Move in the Right Direction:

Holding rates steady does not mean a lack of resolve
Pausing provides greater flexibility to act later
It prevents the market from building an entire rate trajectory around a single decision
It shifts the focus back onto economic data rather than tone and speculation

🗣 The Ideal Message for Warsh:

"Inflation remains above target, and the Fed stands ready to act if pressures return, but there is no need for a preemptive rate hike following June’s reading."

📌 The Bottom Line?
Wednesday’s meeting does not test Warsh’s willingness to raise interest rates; rather, it tests his ability to reject a decision the market is trying to force upon him.
Wall Street has laid a trap in front of him, and the smartest move is simply not to step on it.

#FederalReserve #KevinWarsh #NokhbaNews #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy 💹🏛🇺🇸
🇮🇷 Iran Launches Missiles at US Bases… Escalation Returns to the Forefront

The United States announced the interception of an Iranian missile attack targeting American military bases in the Middle East, ending a days-long period of calm and renewing fears of the conflict escalating into full-scale war in the region.

📊 Key Military Developments:

U.S. Central Command announced the successful interception of all ballistic missiles launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from Iranian territory, placing U.S. forces on high alert. This coincided with joint U.S.-Saudi strikes targeting sites of Tehran-backed groups inside Iraq, while Iran confirmed targeting three oil tankers taking an "illegal" route.

🛢 Oil Surges as Geopolitical Concerns Return:

Brent crude surged by 4% to approach $87.50 per barrel, recovering from its largest three-day loss since April 2020. The return of military escalation heightened the geopolitical risk premium, prompting investors to reassess the threat of energy supply disruptions.

😤 Trump: Strength and Negotiation Combined

In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated: "The United States currently holds a very strong position against Iran." He renewed his threat to bomb key bridges if an agreement cannot be reached, but emphasized his preference for a diplomatic solution, saying: "If I can avoid doing that, I would like to."

🇺🇸 U.S.-Israeli Differences Despite a Common Goal:

Coinciding with Netanyahu’s visit to Washington to attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham, preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon remains the shared goal between both sides. However, other issues cast a shadow over relations, such as the U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal, the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, and Israel's growing fears of a new arms race.

💬 Israeli Spokesperson Doron Spielman stated:

"Israel fully supports any path chosen by the U.S. President, whether through negotiations or by other means if necessary."

❗️ Strait of Hormuz: The Main Bottleneck

The collapse of the temporary truce agreement brought tension back to the vital Strait of Hormuz amid limited maritime traffic, forcing ships to turn off tracking devices. Despite efforts by Iranian and Omani negotiators to reach a deal to resume commercial shipping, an Iranian official expressed Tehran's dissatisfaction with the current Omani proposal, coinciding with the U.S. reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

⚠️ The Energy Crisis as Political Leverage:

💥 Rising gasoline prices in the United States coincide with the peak of the summer travel season amid growing public dissatisfaction with a widely unpopular war. This places increasing political pressure on Trump and the Republicans if fuel prices continue to rise ahead of the mid-term elections in November.

☕️ Summary: The new military escalation ends a period of fragile calm and elevates the risk of energy supply disruptions from the Middle East, while Omani diplomacy remains the last hope to prevent the region from slipping into a broader war.

#Iran #USA #Elite_News #Oil #Geopolitics 💥🛢🇮🇷
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Alert in 5m | 🇬🇧 GBP | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The FASTEST ever
Alert in 5m | 🇬🇧 GBP | Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇬🇧 United Kingdom GBP

Event: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

▫️ Previous: 0.6%
▫️ Forecast: 0.4%
▫️ Actual: 0.6%

🟢 Impact: Came in above expectations — a positive surprise for GBP, and in line with the previous reading

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇬🇧 United Kingdom GBP

Event: Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

▫️ Previous: 0.9%
▫️ Forecast: 1.1%
▫️ Actual: 1.2%

🟢 Impact: Came in above expectations — a positive surprise for GBP, and above the previous reading

The FASTEST ever
Alert in 5m | 🇺🇸 USD | Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇺🇸 United States USD

Event: Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

▫️ Previous: 4.7%
▫️ Forecast: 4.2%
▫️ Actual: 4.2%

🔴 Impact: Matched expectations, but the reading is below the previous one — impact leans negative for USD

The FASTEST ever
Alert in 5m | 🇺🇸 USD | Retail Sales (MoM)

The FASTEST ever
Alert in 5m | 🇺🇸 USD | Retail Sales Control Group

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇺🇸 United States USD

Event: Retail Sales (MoM)

▫️ Previous: 0.2%
▫️ Forecast: 0.1%
▫️ Actual: -0.6%

🔴 Impact: Came in below expectations — a negative surprise for USD, and below the previous reading

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇺🇸 United States USD

Event: Retail Sales Control Group

▫️ Previous: 0.5%
▫️ Forecast: None%
▫️ Actual: -0.4%

⚪️ Impact: As expected for USD

The FASTEST ever
Alert in 5m | 🇺🇸 USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇺🇸 United States USD

Event: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

▫️ Previous: 55.2
▫️ Forecast: 54.5
▫️ Actual: 51.0

🔴 Impact: Came in below expectations — a negative surprise for USD, and below the previous reading

The FASTEST ever
Alert in 5m | 🇯🇵 JPY | Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

The FASTEST ever
🟢 Just Released:
🇯🇵 Japan JPY

Event: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

▫️ Previous: 0.5%
▫️ Forecast: 0.5%
▫️ Actual: 0.3%

🔴 Impact: Came in below expectations — a negative surprise for JPY, and below the previous reading

The FASTEST ever