FED SEES MODEST RISE IN BANK LOAN DELINQUENCIES
The Federal Reserve System reported a modest increase in U.S. loan delinquencies across consumer, commercial, and residential real estate categories in 2025, while overall loan growth remained steady.
Despite the uptick, banks remain well-capitalized and the banking system is considered stable. The Fed also flagged risks in private credit markets following several nonbank defaults. Auto and credit card delinquencies rose in the second half of 2025 but ended the year below 2024 levels.
The Federal Reserve System reported a modest increase in U.S. loan delinquencies across consumer, commercial, and residential real estate categories in 2025, while overall loan growth remained steady.
Despite the uptick, banks remain well-capitalized and the banking system is considered stable. The Fed also flagged risks in private credit markets following several nonbank defaults. Auto and credit card delinquencies rose in the second half of 2025 but ended the year below 2024 levels.
BITCOIN SLIDE: BEARS IN CONTROL
Over $438M in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated in 24 hours as BTC fell 2.3%, signaling rising pressure across crypto markets.
Sentiment is weakening: CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is at 24 (“Fear”), while traders on Kalshi now price BTC down to ~$49K this year.
Meanwhile, equities continue to hit new highs, suggesting capital rotation out of crypto.
https://t.co/BFZiN4Z8r2
Over $438M in long Bitcoin positions were liquidated in 24 hours as BTC fell 2.3%, signaling rising pressure across crypto markets.
Sentiment is weakening: CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index is at 24 (“Fear”), while traders on Kalshi now price BTC down to ~$49K this year.
Meanwhile, equities continue to hit new highs, suggesting capital rotation out of crypto.
https://t.co/BFZiN4Z8r2
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES EXTEND DECLINES, LAST DOWN 1.2%
DOW FUTURES EXTEND GAINS, LAST UP 0.8%
DOW FUTURES EXTEND GAINS, LAST UP 0.8%
RUSSIA'S NOVAK: I HAVE MET SAUDI ENERGY MINISTER, WE AGREED THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT OIL DEMAND
RUSSIA'S NOVAK: ALL THE OIL MARKETS ESTIMATES SHOULD BE DRASTICALLY REVISED
RUSSIA'S NOVAK: ALL THE OIL MARKETS ESTIMATES SHOULD BE DRASTICALLY REVISED
$TSLA - TESLA MODEL Y L US ENTRY COULD BOOST SALES
TD Cowen reiterates Buy on Tesla with a $490 target, highlighting upside if the Model Y L (long-wheelbase, 3-row SUV) enters the US.
Analyst Itay Michaeli estimates 60k–135k annual demand, ~30% above current Model Y volumes. The launch could strengthen Tesla amid EV demand recovery and pressure rivals in the $50k+ 3-row SUV segment.
TD Cowen reiterates Buy on Tesla with a $490 target, highlighting upside if the Model Y L (long-wheelbase, 3-row SUV) enters the US.
Analyst Itay Michaeli estimates 60k–135k annual demand, ~30% above current Model Y volumes. The launch could strengthen Tesla amid EV demand recovery and pressure rivals in the $50k+ 3-row SUV segment.
$QNT - QUANTINUUM SHARES INDICATED TO OPEN AT $70 IN NASDAQ DEBUT VS $60 IPO PRICE
GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.
AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.
AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
IMF FLAGS OIL PRICE RISK FROM IRAN WAR
IMF says global oil prices are ~3% above levels used in its April 3.1% global growth baseline. It estimates Iran-related disruptions have curtailed ~14M barrels/day of production, with price outlook tied to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. IMF also expects global oil reserves to fall to a five-year low of 7.5B barrels in July, down from 8B barrels before the conflict began.
IMF says global oil prices are ~3% above levels used in its April 3.1% global growth baseline. It estimates Iran-related disruptions have curtailed ~14M barrels/day of production, with price outlook tied to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. IMF also expects global oil reserves to fall to a five-year low of 7.5B barrels in July, down from 8B barrels before the conflict began.
IMF WARNS U.S. INFLATION RISKS PUSH FED CAUTION
IMF sees rising U.S. inflation pressures from higher tariffs and renewed energy costs feeding into headline inflation. It urges the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously, citing persistent upside risks. The IMF now expects a return to the 2% inflation target by end-2027, later than its prior mid-2027 forecast, noting markets are increasingly pricing in potential rate hikes. It also stresses careful, data-dependent Fed policy and clear communication.
IMF sees rising U.S. inflation pressures from higher tariffs and renewed energy costs feeding into headline inflation. It urges the Federal Reserve to proceed cautiously, citing persistent upside risks. The IMF now expects a return to the 2% inflation target by end-2027, later than its prior mid-2027 forecast, noting markets are increasingly pricing in potential rate hikes. It also stresses careful, data-dependent Fed policy and clear communication.
GOLDMAN SAYS BUY DIPS AS EQUITY GAINS COOL
Goldman Sachs expects equity returns to moderate after a strong rally but maintains an overweight stance over 12 months. Strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann says markets have rebounded to near record highs, driven by tech earnings and AI spending, though elevated yields, energy prices, and stretched sentiment raise correction risks. Despite higher volatility risk, Goldman still sees a supportive macro backdrop and recommends buying pullbacks, citing continued earnings growth and AI-driven capital expenditure.
Goldman Sachs expects equity returns to moderate after a strong rally but maintains an overweight stance over 12 months. Strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann says markets have rebounded to near record highs, driven by tech earnings and AI spending, though elevated yields, energy prices, and stretched sentiment raise correction risks. Despite higher volatility risk, Goldman still sees a supportive macro backdrop and recommends buying pullbacks, citing continued earnings growth and AI-driven capital expenditure.
$TSLA - TESLA'S FUTURE IS ROBOTICS, NOT CARS
J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla to “neutral” from “underweight,” saying the stock’s value is increasingly tied to autonomous driving, robotics, AI, and software rather than near-term EV earnings. The bank raised its price target to $475 from $145, citing Tesla’s strong hardware-software integration and long-term growth potential. However, it warned that regulatory, safety, and execution risks remain significant.
J.P. Morgan upgraded Tesla to “neutral” from “underweight,” saying the stock’s value is increasingly tied to autonomous driving, robotics, AI, and software rather than near-term EV earnings. The bank raised its price target to $475 from $145, citing Tesla’s strong hardware-software integration and long-term growth potential. However, it warned that regulatory, safety, and execution risks remain significant.
$TSLA - MORGAN STANLEY ANALYSTS SEE SPACEX REVENUE REACHING $3.4T IN 2040, SOURCES SAY
MORGAN STANLEY PROJECTS SPACEX'S ADJUSTED EBITDA TOPS $2.7T IN 2040, SOURCES SAY
MORGAN STANLEY PROJECTS SPACEX'S ADJUSTED EBITDA TOPS $2.7T IN 2040, SOURCES SAY
FED POLICY RISKS AI-FUELED STOCK BUBBLE, BCA WARNS
BCA Research warns Federal Reserve risks inflating a stock bubble by underestimating AI-driven inflation and keeping rates too low. Peter Berezin says AI is pushing up costs such as electricity and memory chips, while rising equities fuel spending. Long term effects are uncertain but may lift real rates. Stocks are overbought, not bear-market level, with risks from AI capex bust or inequality surge.
BCA Research warns Federal Reserve risks inflating a stock bubble by underestimating AI-driven inflation and keeping rates too low. Peter Berezin says AI is pushing up costs such as electricity and memory chips, while rising equities fuel spending. Long term effects are uncertain but may lift real rates. Stocks are overbought, not bear-market level, with risks from AI capex bust or inequality surge.
US PREMARKET MOVERS – JUNE 5, 2026
S&P 500 Index futures are down 0.5% at 7:51 a.m. in New York, as the AI trade continues to weaken. Nasdaq 100 futures fall 1.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edge up 0.2%. The MSCI World Index is little changed.
Magnificent Seven
$NVDA -1.3% | $MSFT +0.4% | $TSLA +0.1% | $AAPL -0.1% | $GOOGL -0.4% | $AMZN -0.2% | $META -0.2%
Biggest Premarket Movers:Winners
• $MRLN +29% – Defense tech company surges after successful critical design review for its C-130J autonomy program with US Special Operations Command.
• $TTAN +15% – Software firm jumps on strong first-quarter revenue beat.
• $AGX +11% – Power-plant builder rallies after Q1 revenue topped analyst expectations.
• $GIII +8% – Apparel group gains on raised full-year EPS guidance.
• $COO +6% – Lens maker rises after Q2 sales and profit exceeded estimates.
• $CMG +2% – Chipotle climbs following JPMorgan upgrade to overweight, citing a “rare valuation opportunity.”
Losers
• $GWRE -12% – Software company drops after Q4 subscription revenue guidance missed estimates.
• $LULU -10% – Lululemon slides following a lowered annual forecast due to weak North America performance.
• $DOCU -4% – Docusign falls after in-line Q2 revenue outlook; investors await progress on its AI-powered contract platform.
• $IOT -2% – Samsara slips after reporting first-quarter results.
Overall sentiment remains cautious with AI-related stocks under pressure.
S&P 500 Index futures are down 0.5% at 7:51 a.m. in New York, as the AI trade continues to weaken. Nasdaq 100 futures fall 1.1%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edge up 0.2%. The MSCI World Index is little changed.
Magnificent Seven
$NVDA -1.3% | $MSFT +0.4% | $TSLA +0.1% | $AAPL -0.1% | $GOOGL -0.4% | $AMZN -0.2% | $META -0.2%
Biggest Premarket Movers:Winners
• $MRLN +29% – Defense tech company surges after successful critical design review for its C-130J autonomy program with US Special Operations Command.
• $TTAN +15% – Software firm jumps on strong first-quarter revenue beat.
• $AGX +11% – Power-plant builder rallies after Q1 revenue topped analyst expectations.
• $GIII +8% – Apparel group gains on raised full-year EPS guidance.
• $COO +6% – Lens maker rises after Q2 sales and profit exceeded estimates.
• $CMG +2% – Chipotle climbs following JPMorgan upgrade to overweight, citing a “rare valuation opportunity.”
Losers
• $GWRE -12% – Software company drops after Q4 subscription revenue guidance missed estimates.
• $LULU -10% – Lululemon slides following a lowered annual forecast due to weak North America performance.
• $DOCU -4% – Docusign falls after in-line Q2 revenue outlook; investors await progress on its AI-powered contract platform.
• $IOT -2% – Samsara slips after reporting first-quarter results.
Overall sentiment remains cautious with AI-related stocks under pressure.
STRONG US JOBS DATA LIFTS FED HIKE ODDS
Rate futures now price a 63% chance of a December Fed hike, up from 48% pre-data. Kalshi traders also see a 64% chance of a Fed hike before July 2027, with probabilities trending higher. Markets now price a more resilient economy and fewer near-term cuts.
https://t.co/uymdr0GdV6
Rate futures now price a 63% chance of a December Fed hike, up from 48% pre-data. Kalshi traders also see a 64% chance of a Fed hike before July 2027, with probabilities trending higher. Markets now price a more resilient economy and fewer near-term cuts.
https://t.co/uymdr0GdV6
$META - *META WEIGHS RAISING TENS OF BILLIONS IN NEW SHARE SALE: FT
RUSSIA'S SECHIN SAYS OIL MARKETS MAY RETURN TO FUNDAMENTALS IN SECOND HALF OF 2027 IF CRISIS IS BEING RESOLVED