EUR/USD is currently trading into a key resistance zone (1.18–1.19).
The structure has clearly shifted bullish after breaking out of the previous bearish channel, but price is now in a reactive area → not the ideal point to enter.
The interesting factor here is sentiment:
👉 73% of retail traders are short
This reinforces the idea of further upside, but likely with an intermediate step:
➡️ pullback toward 1.1650–1.17
➡️ potential continuation toward 1.20–1.21
The structure has clearly shifted bullish after breaking out of the previous bearish channel, but price is now in a reactive area → not the ideal point to enter.
The interesting factor here is sentiment:
👉 73% of retail traders are short
This reinforces the idea of further upside, but likely with an intermediate step:
➡️ pullback toward 1.1650–1.17
➡️ potential continuation toward 1.20–1.21
Weekly Recap 13-17/04/2026
This week:
FundedNext: -0.2%
Topstep: -0.6%
Overall:
FundedNext: -2%
Topstep: -0.9%
Main points:
Several small losses due to over-management
One mistake on NQ
Missed GBP/CAD trade
This week:
FundedNext: -0.2%
Topstep: -0.6%
Overall:
FundedNext: -2%
Topstep: -0.9%
Main points:
Several small losses due to over-management
One mistake on NQ
Missed GBP/CAD trade
Macro Recap (Apr 13–17)
USD inflation cooling (PPI below expectations)
GBP strong GDP surprise
AUD weaker employment data
Macro Outlook (Apr 20–24)
Key events:
CAD CPI
NZD CPI
GBP: CPI + PMI + Retail Sales
USD: Retail Sales + Fed testimony
USD inflation cooling (PPI below expectations)
GBP strong GDP surprise
AUD weaker employment data
Macro Outlook (Apr 20–24)
Key events:
CAD CPI
NZD CPI
GBP: CPI + PMI + Retail Sales
USD: Retail Sales + Fed testimony
AUD/USD remains bullish, but short-term looks stretched.
Retail is heavily short (83%), supporting a bullish bias, and seasonality remains positive for April.
However, price is currently reacting from a key HTF supply zone, increasing the probability of a pullback.
Watch for a retracement into 0.70–0.695 (FVG zones) before looking for continuation setups.
Retail is heavily short (83%), supporting a bullish bias, and seasonality remains positive for April.
However, price is currently reacting from a key HTF supply zone, increasing the probability of a pullback.
Watch for a retracement into 0.70–0.695 (FVG zones) before looking for continuation setups.
NQ recap (21/04):
H1 short bias respected, but PM session gave a liquidity sweep into the 50% of a bullish FVG → shift to reactive setup.
Entry on M5 breaker retest, clean execution and management.
Closed slightly early due to session close volatility and missed confidence on a pre-marked level.
Good trade overall, but more was available.
AM session also printed a clean BPR short setup (not executed due to PM-only focus)
H1 short bias respected, but PM session gave a liquidity sweep into the 50% of a bullish FVG → shift to reactive setup.
Entry on M5 breaker retest, clean execution and management.
Closed slightly early due to session close volatility and missed confidence on a pre-marked level.
Good trade overall, but more was available.
AM session also printed a clean BPR short setup (not executed due to PM-only focus)
NQ recap (NY PM session):
NASDAQ-100 swept liquidity above H1 highs → retracement with bullish HTF bias.
Waited for LTF confirmation (BPR / iFVG) + SMT with S&P 500 → short on M5 retest.
Execution mistakes:
SL not placed above structure
TP too ambitious (missed OB + FVG below)
Model was valid. Execution wasn’t.
Week: -0.12%
Plenty of room to recover.
NASDAQ-100 swept liquidity above H1 highs → retracement with bullish HTF bias.
Waited for LTF confirmation (BPR / iFVG) + SMT with S&P 500 → short on M5 retest.
Execution mistakes:
SL not placed above structure
TP too ambitious (missed OB + FVG below)
Model was valid. Execution wasn’t.
Week: -0.12%
Plenty of room to recover.
Long entry on EURCAD at 1.6015 from a key support area following a corrective pullback.
The overall context remains mixed, with some higher timeframe bearish elements, but in the short term:
Clear reaction from the 1.59–1.60 demand zone
Short-term structure starting to build (potential continuation)
Liquidity target resting around the 1.62 area
Setup:
Entry: 1.6015
Stop Loss: 1.5962
Take Profit: 1.6212
The idea is to capitalize on a corrective move into higher timeframe supply before any potential bearish continuation.
Invalidation below 1.5960.
The overall context remains mixed, with some higher timeframe bearish elements, but in the short term:
Clear reaction from the 1.59–1.60 demand zone
Short-term structure starting to build (potential continuation)
Liquidity target resting around the 1.62 area
Setup:
Entry: 1.6015
Stop Loss: 1.5962
Take Profit: 1.6212
The idea is to capitalize on a corrective move into higher timeframe supply before any potential bearish continuation.
Invalidation below 1.5960.
📊 Weekly Trading Recap (Apr 20–24)
50% win rate… still negative.
That’s what happens when losses are bigger than wins.
FundedNext Phase 2: -2%
EURCAD still running.
Topstep: -1.1%
Nothing broken. Just execution to refine.
Next week → precision mode.
50% win rate… still negative.
That’s what happens when losses are bigger than wins.
FundedNext Phase 2: -2%
EURCAD still running.
Topstep: -1.1%
Nothing broken. Just execution to refine.
Next week → precision mode.
Gold is currently in a technical pullback, but the overall structure remains clearly bullish.
Smart money (COT) continues to accumulate long positions, while retail is already exposed → a further shakeout phase is still possible before the real move.
Key zone: 4,600–4,650
As long as this level holds → continuation scenario toward 4,850 / 5,000 / 5,400
I’m not chasing price.
I wait for structure, then execution.
Smart money (COT) continues to accumulate long positions, while retail is already exposed → a further shakeout phase is still possible before the real move.
Key zone: 4,600–4,650
As long as this level holds → continuation scenario toward 4,850 / 5,000 / 5,400
I’m not chasing price.
I wait for structure, then execution.
EURUSD remains structurally bullish.
After the impulsive move from 1.14, price is now pulling back inside a corrective channel, this looks like a classic continuation phase, not a reversal.
COT data confirms institutional accumulation, while retail traders are heavily short (70%), creating a strong contrarian signal.
As long as 1.15 holds, I’m expecting continuation towards 1.18 and potentially higher.
After the impulsive move from 1.14, price is now pulling back inside a corrective channel, this looks like a classic continuation phase, not a reversal.
COT data confirms institutional accumulation, while retail traders are heavily short (70%), creating a strong contrarian signal.
As long as 1.15 holds, I’m expecting continuation towards 1.18 and potentially higher.
GBP/USD is currently in a very interesting spot.
COT shows strong institutional shorts, retail is also heavily short (69%), but price is still pushing higher after reclaiming demand.
This kind of imbalance often leads to short squeezes before any real downside.
Key level to watch: 1.3350–1.34
If it holds → continuation higher
If it breaks → shift to bearish bias
Not a market to chase.
Wait for reaction.
COT shows strong institutional shorts, retail is also heavily short (69%), but price is still pushing higher after reclaiming demand.
This kind of imbalance often leads to short squeezes before any real downside.
Key level to watch: 1.3350–1.34
If it holds → continuation higher
If it breaks → shift to bearish bias
Not a market to chase.
Wait for reaction.
Weekly update:
Topstep: -0.45% (DD -1.53%)
FundedNext: -1.12% (DD -3.29%)
Not the best week, but everything still under control. No rule breaks, just a tougher market environment.
Topstep: -0.45% (DD -1.53%)
FundedNext: -1.12% (DD -3.29%)
Not the best week, but everything still under control. No rule breaks, just a tougher market environment.
WEEKLY MACRO (RECAP + OUTLOOK)
Last week was all about central banks and mixed US data.
Fed, BOE, ECB → no real shifts.
US data → weaker GDP but still resilient labor.
Result: no clear direction, just reactions.
We’re not in a trending macro environment right now.
We’re in a data-driven, liquidity-driven market.
Now looking ahead:
RBA, US PMI + JOLTS and NFP.
NFP expected 60K vs 178K previous → market is pricing a slowdown.
This is key.
If confirmed → USD weakness
If not → strong squeeze
Last week was all about central banks and mixed US data.
Fed, BOE, ECB → no real shifts.
US data → weaker GDP but still resilient labor.
Result: no clear direction, just reactions.
We’re not in a trending macro environment right now.
We’re in a data-driven, liquidity-driven market.
Now looking ahead:
RBA, US PMI + JOLTS and NFP.
NFP expected 60K vs 178K previous → market is pricing a slowdown.
This is key.
If confirmed → USD weakness
If not → strong squeeze
📈 AUD/USD – Institutional Bullish Continuation
AUDUSD continues to show a very strong bullish structure both technically and from a positioning perspective.
Latest COT data confirms aggressive institutional accumulation on AUD, while retail traders remain heavily short (82%), a classic contrarian bullish signal.
Technically, price is consolidating above the breakout structure while holding the daily imbalance zone around 0.7140–0.7100.
As long as the market remains above 0.7100 on a daily basis, the continuation scenario toward:
🎯 0.7280
🎯 0.7400
AUDUSD continues to show a very strong bullish structure both technically and from a positioning perspective.
Latest COT data confirms aggressive institutional accumulation on AUD, while retail traders remain heavily short (82%), a classic contrarian bullish signal.
Technically, price is consolidating above the breakout structure while holding the daily imbalance zone around 0.7140–0.7100.
As long as the market remains above 0.7100 on a daily basis, the continuation scenario toward:
🎯 0.7280
🎯 0.7400