NASDAQ PM session recap 15-05-2026📊

Only traded the NY evening session today on my Topstep account.

Closed the day +0.4% ✅

I’m happier with the read than with the execution.

The initial liquidity sweep after NY PM open offered a very clean first-stage setup, but I came into the session mentally biased and noticed the quality of the move too late.
Later, price created another schematic exactly as expected.
Problem was: I was at the gym, alerts weren’t set properly, and I entered while the market was already moving fast.

Probably captured only 50% of the real move potential, but the important part is that the read was correct and risk stayed controlled.

📊 EUR/USD Analysis

I’m starting to see the first real signs of weakness on EUR/USD after weeks of aggressive bullish momentum.
Price rejected the macro premium zone around 1.1780–1.1900 while respecting the descending trendline from the January highs. At the same time, retail sentiment remains heavily long (around 65%), which from a contrarian perspective keeps downside liquidity attractive.

COT data still supports EUR strength in the medium term, but DXY positioning is stabilizing enough to potentially fuel a temporary dollar rebound.
For now, I’m treating the current move as corrective rather than a full macro reversal.

Main scenario:
• Reaction from the Daily FVG around 1.1620
• Short-term bounce/liquidity grab
• Continuation lower toward 1.1540
• Possible expansion into 1.1400 if USD strength increases

Key confirmation for bulls would be a reclaim above 1.1750 and acceptance back above the descending trendline.

🌍 Macro markets shifted back toward inflation fears last week after stronger-than-expected U.S. CPI and PPI data.

🇺🇸 Higher inflation reinforced the “higher for longer” Fed narrative:
• CPI y/y: 3.8%
• Core PPI m/m: 1.0%
USD regained strength while yields pushed higher and equities turned volatile.

This week the focus moves to:
🇬🇧 UK CPI & PMIs
🇨🇦 Canadian CPI
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
🇦🇺 Australian Employment Data

GBP/USD is entering a very interesting macro zone.

After reviewing:
• Technical structure
• COT positioning
• Retail sentiment
• USD Index flows
• Seasonality data

I believe the pair may be transitioning into a broader distribution phase rather than continuation bullish momentum.

Key area remains:
1.3550 – 1.3670

As long as price stays below this zone, I’m watching for potential downside expansion toward:
• 1.3200
• 1.3050
• 1.2800

XAUUSD Weekly Breakdown 📉

Gold is starting to show early signs of institutional distribution.

Retail traders remain heavily long while Commercials continue increasing their short exposure according to the latest COT data.
At the same time, price is consolidating inside a major weekly supply zone after a strong impulsive rally.

From my perspective, this looks more like premium pricing absorption rather than bullish continuation.

Main scenario:
→ possible liquidity sweep higher
→ rejection from supply
→ rotation back toward discount levels

Key levels:
• Resistance: 4780–5000
• Bearish confirmation: 4540
• Targets: 4430 → 4100

Seasonality also starts weakening into late May / June, adding further pressure to the bearish case.

Smart Money positioning is becoming very interesting here. 👀

USDJPY still looks structurally bullish despite the recent retracement from 160.50.

Price swept liquidity below 155.00 and reacted strongly from discount pricing, reclaiming the daily imbalance zone.

COT data supports USD strength while JPY positioning remains weak, and retail sentiment is still heavily short USDJPY, a contrarian bullish signal.

As long as price holds above 157.00, I continue to favor upside continuation toward 160.50 and potentially 161.00. 📈

EUR/USD is approaching a critical decision zone.

Price is compressing beneath a major descending trendline after rejecting higher timeframe supply around 1.1750–1.1900.

Institutional COT positioning still supports euro strength structurally, but retail traders are now heavily long (71%), creating the perfect conditions for a potential downside liquidity sweep first.

My current expectation:
→ Short-term retracement toward 1.1540–1.1500
→ Re-accumulation phase
→ Possible bullish continuation later in Q3

Key area to watch:
1.1650–1.1670 resistance.

As long as price remains below that zone, sellers still have short-term control.

📊 COT Update – Institutional Positioning (May 19, 2026)

Institutions continue rotating away from the USD while maintaining strong exposure on Gold, EUR and AUD.

✅ Strongest positioning:
Gold
AUD
EUR

❌ Weakest structures:
USD
NZD

⚠️ JPY and CHF positioning are becoming increasingly crowded, raising the probability of sharp reversal squeezes if risk sentiment deteriorates.

Main macro theme remains unchanged:
- Weak USD
- Commodity strength
- Selective risk-on continuation

🌍 Weekly Macro Recap | 18–22 May 2026

This week confirmed a clear slowdown in global inflation dynamics, while labor market weakness started emerging more visibly across several economies.

🇬🇧 UK CPI slowed sharply to 2.8%, reinforcing expectations for a softer BOE stance later this year.
🇨🇦 Canadian inflation also cooled, supporting the broader disinflation narrative.
🇦🇺 Australia delivered the biggest surprise of the week with extremely weak employment data and rising unemployment.
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes confirmed the Fed remains cautious: inflation is still too elevated to justify aggressive easing, especially with energy prices rising because of Middle East tensions.

Main macro themes:
- Global disinflation continues
- Labor markets are weakening
- Energy remains the key inflation risk
- Central banks stay cautious and data-dependent

📉 GBPCAD Analysis

I’m currently watching GBPCAD very closely as price trades directly into a major HTF supply zone combined with bearish trendline resistance and a volume imbalance area.

COT data still shows institutional weakness on GBP, while CAD positioning continues improving. Seasonality also favors CAD strength into late May / June.

Main scenario:
➡️ Liquidity sweep higher into 1.8580–1.8620
➡️ Rejection from premium pricing
➡️ Rotation back toward 1.8400 / 1.8300

As long as price stays below 1.8680, I still favor downside continuation.

Waiting for H1/H4 bearish confirmation before execution.

DXY approaching a critical resistance zone.

Price is currently testing a major weekly imbalance around 98.50–98.90 while still trading below the descending macro trendline.

COT data remains slightly bearish with non-commercial traders still net short on the dollar, while rising Open Interest suggests volatility expansion may be near.

Seasonality also points to potential USD weakness during the summer months.

Key scenarios:
• Rejection from current resistance → continuation toward 97.20 / 95.50
• Weekly reclaim above 99.50 → bullish invalidation

GBP/NZD is approaching a very important higher timeframe decision zone.

Despite the rejection from weekly trendline resistance, the broader bullish structure remains intact above 2.2750 support.

Main reasons why I’m still leaning bullish:
• NZD remains institutionally weaker than GBP on COT data
• Retail traders are heavily short (78%)
• Higher lows are still respected
• Seasonality favors NZD weakness into June

I’m watching for a liquidity sweep into demand before potential continuation toward 2.30–2.31.

This could become a strong short squeeze setup if momentum returns above resistance.

📊 NZDCHF Analysis

NZDCHF has broken above its recent structure and is now testing a major daily resistance zone around 0.4650–0.4660.

🔹 Price Action: Bullish
🔹 Retail Sentiment: Bullish (57% traders short)
🔹 COT Data: Slightly Bearish
🔹 Seasonality: Bearish

Despite the mixed macro backdrop, buyers currently control the short-term trend.

I'm not interested in chasing the move higher. Instead, I'm monitoring a pullback into the 0.4661–0.4639 supply zone for potential long opportunities.

Targets:
🎯 0.4680
🎯 0.4710
🎯 0.4750

🛢 USOIL Analysis | COT + Seasonality + Technical Structure

WTI has broken above a multi-year descending channel, confirming a significant structural shift.

Despite the bullish long-term outlook, price is now approaching a major resistance zone between 104 and 108 USD while speculative traders are beginning to reduce long exposure according to the latest COT report.

📊 Key observations:

• Multi-year bearish channel broken
• Net long positioning remains supportive
• June seasonality remains strongly bullish
• Monthly imbalance sits between 70–76 USD
• Potential retracement before the next expansion phase

My preferred scenario remains a pullback toward the 75–80 USD area before a potential continuation toward 120 USD.

🌍 Weekly Macro Recap | 25–29 May 2026

The macro picture became increasingly clear this week:

📉 Growth is slowing.
📉 Inflation continues to moderate.
📈 Markets are pricing a higher probability of future rate cuts.

Key developments:

🇦🇺 Australian CPI missed expectations, reinforcing the disinflation trend.

🇳🇿 RBNZ kept rates unchanged while maintaining a cautious tone.

🇺🇸 US GDP was revised lower from 2.0% to 1.6%, highlighting weaker investment and consumer spending.

🇨🇦 Canadian GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.1%.

💡 Market takeaway:

The "slower growth + easing inflation" narrative continues to gain traction.

Current macro beneficiaries:
✅ Gold
✅ NASDAQ
✅ EUR

Under pressure:
❌ USD (medium term)
❌ CAD
❌ AUD (short term)

The focus now shifts toward employment data and next week's NFP report.

📊 COT REPORT ANALYSIS | 26 May 2026

Institutional positioning continues to favor a weaker USD environment.

Strongest assets:
🥇 Gold
🥈 AUD
🥉 EUR

Weakest assets:
• NZD
• USD

Reversal risk building:
• JPY
• CHF

Key observations:
• Gold remains structurally bullish despite recent profit-taking.
• AUD continues to attract strong speculative demand.
• EUR benefits from persistent USD weakness.
• CAD is showing early signs of recovery.
• JPY and CHF shorts are becoming increasingly crowded.
• NASDAQ positioning remains constructive, although commercial hedging is increasing.

USD weakness continues to support commodities and risk assets, while extreme JPY and CHF positioning could create future reversal opportunities.