📊 AUDJPY: 88% of retail traders are short
AUDJPY remains technically bullish, but price is currently trading inside a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80.
For this reason, I am not interested in chasing long positions at the current price.
My preferred scenario is a sweep of the liquidity above the recent highs, followed by a correction toward the Daily imbalances located around 114.00 and, ideally, between 113.00 and 113.50.
If price reaches this demand area and provides bullish confirmation, I will look for a possible continuation above 114.80, targeting the 115.00+ region.
Sentiment is heavily unbalanced, with 88% of retail traders short, which could fuel a bullish continuation.
However, September seasonality favours a weaker AUD and a stronger JPY, while COT positioning remains mixed.
📌 Bullish structure, but patience is required. I prefer buying from demand rather than chasing price inside resistance.
❌ A Daily close below 112.68 would weaken the setup.
AUDJPY remains technically bullish, but price is currently trading inside a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80.
For this reason, I am not interested in chasing long positions at the current price.
My preferred scenario is a sweep of the liquidity above the recent highs, followed by a correction toward the Daily imbalances located around 114.00 and, ideally, between 113.00 and 113.50.
If price reaches this demand area and provides bullish confirmation, I will look for a possible continuation above 114.80, targeting the 115.00+ region.
Sentiment is heavily unbalanced, with 88% of retail traders short, which could fuel a bullish continuation.
However, September seasonality favours a weaker AUD and a stronger JPY, while COT positioning remains mixed.
📌 Bullish structure, but patience is required. I prefer buying from demand rather than chasing price inside resistance.
❌ A Daily close below 112.68 would weaken the setup.
WTI CRUDE OIL — $95–97 IS MY KEY AREA 🛢️
My HTF bias remains bullish, but I am not interested in chasing WTI around $90.
I am watching $94–97 area + buy-side liquidity very closely.
COT positioning remains net bullish, fundamentals are supportive, while Q4 seasonality makes me more cautious about buying at current levels.
My preferred scenario is:
$94–97 liquidity sweep → bearish confirmation → $78–80 → potentially $72–74 HTF demand.
If buyers defend $72–74, I will reassess longs toward $104–106 / $118–120.
If instead WTI establishes acceptance above $97, I will drop the deeper pullback scenario and focus on continuation higher.
My HTF bias remains bullish, but I am not interested in chasing WTI around $90.
I am watching $94–97 area + buy-side liquidity very closely.
COT positioning remains net bullish, fundamentals are supportive, while Q4 seasonality makes me more cautious about buying at current levels.
My preferred scenario is:
$94–97 liquidity sweep → bearish confirmation → $78–80 → potentially $72–74 HTF demand.
If buyers defend $72–74, I will reassess longs toward $104–106 / $118–120.
If instead WTI establishes acceptance above $97, I will drop the deeper pullback scenario and focus on continuation higher.
NQ SESSION RECAP 02/09/2026
No trades for me today.
During the post-lunch session, NQ remained mostly range-bound, rotating between nearby liquidity levels without developing any clean directional structure.
There were potential liquidity targets on both sides, but no displacement or confirmation strong enough to justify an entry according to my plan.
In this type of environment, forcing a position usually means trading noise rather than an actual setup.
So today the best execution was simple: stay patient, protect capital and wait for better conditions.
No trades for me today.
During the post-lunch session, NQ remained mostly range-bound, rotating between nearby liquidity levels without developing any clean directional structure.
There were potential liquidity targets on both sides, but no displacement or confirmation strong enough to justify an entry according to my plan.
In this type of environment, forcing a position usually means trading noise rather than an actual setup.
So today the best execution was simple: stay patient, protect capital and wait for better conditions.
EUR/USD: BEARISH… BUT I'M NOT SELLING YET. 📉
My HTF bias remains bearish, but EUR/USD is currently trading in an area where I don't see enough asymmetry to justify chasing shorts.
What supports my bearish view?
📊 COT EUR: speculators remain net short by ~36K contracts
💵 COT DXY: non-commercial positioning remains strongly net long USD
📅 Seasonality: recent 5Y/10Y September tendencies favor EUR weakness
📉 Structure: price remains below the major descending trendline
👥 Retail sentiment: 64% of traders are already SHORT
With retail heavily short and EUR speculative shorts being reduced, I see a real possibility of a short squeeze before the next bearish leg.
My preferred area:
🔴 1.1640–1.1680 → potential SHORT zone
Then I want confirmation. No blind entries.
Downside areas:
🎯 1.1540–1.1500
🎯 1.1450
🎯 1.1400–1.1360
My HTF bias remains bearish, but EUR/USD is currently trading in an area where I don't see enough asymmetry to justify chasing shorts.
What supports my bearish view?
📊 COT EUR: speculators remain net short by ~36K contracts
💵 COT DXY: non-commercial positioning remains strongly net long USD
📅 Seasonality: recent 5Y/10Y September tendencies favor EUR weakness
📉 Structure: price remains below the major descending trendline
👥 Retail sentiment: 64% of traders are already SHORT
With retail heavily short and EUR speculative shorts being reduced, I see a real possibility of a short squeeze before the next bearish leg.
My preferred area:
🔴 1.1640–1.1680 → potential SHORT zone
Then I want confirmation. No blind entries.
Downside areas:
🎯 1.1540–1.1500
🎯 1.1450
🎯 1.1400–1.1360
📉 GBP/JPY
Following the rejection from 217.00–217.70, GBP/JPY broke decisively below the 211.84 and 209.50 support levels, confirming that the current structure remains bearish.
Price has entered the first demand zone, but I am not looking to anticipate a long position.
With 86% of retail traders already positioned long, the market could still search for liquidity towards the deeper 206.50–205.20 demand area.
My preferred scenario:
🔸 Liquidity sweep into 206.50–205.20
🔸 Recovery above 207.80–208.20
🔸 Bullish CHOCH/BOS on the lower timeframes
🔸 Retest and confirmation before entry
Potential targets: 209.00 – 209.50 – 210.84 – 211.84.
As long as price remains below 209.50–210.84, my short-term bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Personal market analysis. This is not financial advice.
Following the rejection from 217.00–217.70, GBP/JPY broke decisively below the 211.84 and 209.50 support levels, confirming that the current structure remains bearish.
Price has entered the first demand zone, but I am not looking to anticipate a long position.
With 86% of retail traders already positioned long, the market could still search for liquidity towards the deeper 206.50–205.20 demand area.
My preferred scenario:
🔸 Liquidity sweep into 206.50–205.20
🔸 Recovery above 207.80–208.20
🔸 Bullish CHOCH/BOS on the lower timeframes
🔸 Retest and confirmation before entry
Potential targets: 209.00 – 209.50 – 210.84 – 211.84.
As long as price remains below 209.50–210.84, my short-term bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Personal market analysis. This is not financial advice.
📊 NQ — Before London Open
NQ swept the short-term buy-side liquidity around 29,760 and is now trading back below PWH (29,704.50) and PDH (29,683.50).
🔹 Immediate support: H1 FVG around 29,640–29,650
🔹 Main demand area: 29,603.50–29,635
🔹 Bearish target if support fails: PDL at 29,530.50
🔹 Bullish scenario: reclaiming 29,683–29,705 could open another move toward 29,760 and the higher buy-side liquidity near 29,810
For now, price is trading between liquidity zones. I’ll wait for the London Open reaction and clear lower-timeframe confirmation before taking any position.
NQ swept the short-term buy-side liquidity around 29,760 and is now trading back below PWH (29,704.50) and PDH (29,683.50).
🔹 Immediate support: H1 FVG around 29,640–29,650
🔹 Main demand area: 29,603.50–29,635
🔹 Bearish target if support fails: PDL at 29,530.50
🔹 Bullish scenario: reclaiming 29,683–29,705 could open another move toward 29,760 and the higher buy-side liquidity near 29,810
For now, price is trading between liquidity zones. I’ll wait for the London Open reaction and clear lower-timeframe confirmation before taking any position.
📉 USDJPY: 86% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE LONG
My current bias on USDJPY remains bearish after the rejection from the 163.70–164.00 weekly supply zone.
Price has:
✅ Swept liquidity around 159.80–160.40
✅ Broken the ascending trendline
✅ Lost the 155.00–155.20 support
✅ Confirmed a lower-high and lower-low structure
However, USDJPY is already trading near 153.47, inside a major weekly demand zone. For this reason, I am not interested in chasing a short at the current price.
My preferred setup would be a retracement toward 154.80–155.30, followed by an H1/H4 bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 152.20 and 151.50
⚠️ Initial invalidation: above 156.50
❌ Structural invalidation: daily close above 157.50
Retail sentiment strengthens the bearish case: 86% of traders are long, with an average entry around 156.48.
COT positioning and September seasonality remain bullish for USDJPY, so there is no perfect alignment.
Full analysis on TradingView 📊
My current bias on USDJPY remains bearish after the rejection from the 163.70–164.00 weekly supply zone.
Price has:
✅ Swept liquidity around 159.80–160.40
✅ Broken the ascending trendline
✅ Lost the 155.00–155.20 support
✅ Confirmed a lower-high and lower-low structure
However, USDJPY is already trading near 153.47, inside a major weekly demand zone. For this reason, I am not interested in chasing a short at the current price.
My preferred setup would be a retracement toward 154.80–155.30, followed by an H1/H4 bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 152.20 and 151.50
⚠️ Initial invalidation: above 156.50
❌ Structural invalidation: daily close above 157.50
Retail sentiment strengthens the bearish case: 86% of traders are long, with an average entry around 156.48.
COT positioning and September seasonality remain bullish for USDJPY, so there is no perfect alignment.
Full analysis on TradingView 📊
GBPCHF - DAILY CHART 📊
My outlook on the pair remains bullish.
GBPCHF has broken above the resistance area, confirming a daily structure of higher highs and higher lows.
Before the next continuation, I would not rule out a pullback towards 1.1000 or into the main demand zone between 1.0935 and 1.0965.
📊 My main confirmations:
• Non-commercial traders are net short CHF by 29,985 contracts
• Speculators reduced their CHF longs and simultaneously added new shorts
• September seasonality is consistently negative for the Swiss franc
• 84% of retail traders are currently short GBPCHF
• The breakout above 1.1000 has strengthened the bullish structure
I will not chase the price at the current highs. My preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback followed by bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes.
⚠️ This is my personal market analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
My outlook on the pair remains bullish.
GBPCHF has broken above the resistance area, confirming a daily structure of higher highs and higher lows.
Before the next continuation, I would not rule out a pullback towards 1.1000 or into the main demand zone between 1.0935 and 1.0965.
📊 My main confirmations:
• Non-commercial traders are net short CHF by 29,985 contracts
• Speculators reduced their CHF longs and simultaneously added new shorts
• September seasonality is consistently negative for the Swiss franc
• 84% of retail traders are currently short GBPCHF
• The breakout above 1.1000 has strengthened the bullish structure
I will not chase the price at the current highs. My preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback followed by bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes.
⚠️ This is my personal market analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
🇳🇿🇨🇭 NZDCHF Analysis
NZDCHF is approaching an interesting point.
Technically, I remain bearish below 0.4750–0.4760, with liquidity around 0.4700 and a potential continuation toward my 0.4635–0.4560 Weekly Demand Zone.
But the bigger picture is starting to tell a different story.
📊 NZD Non-Commercial positioning: Net +6.2K, with +14.8K new longs in the latest COT report.
📊 CHF Non-Commercial positioning: approximately Net -30K, with longs decreasing and shorts increasing.
Seasonality also favors NZD relative to CHF, while retail remains 56% long, leaving room for another downside liquidity sweep first.
So I'm not looking to buy yet.
I want the sell-off first. Then I'll watch the Weekly Demand for confirmation of a potential reversal.
🎯 0.4700 → 0.4665 → 0.4630
If bullish structure appears there, NZDCHF could become much more interesting from the long side.
NZDCHF is approaching an interesting point.
Technically, I remain bearish below 0.4750–0.4760, with liquidity around 0.4700 and a potential continuation toward my 0.4635–0.4560 Weekly Demand Zone.
But the bigger picture is starting to tell a different story.
📊 NZD Non-Commercial positioning: Net +6.2K, with +14.8K new longs in the latest COT report.
📊 CHF Non-Commercial positioning: approximately Net -30K, with longs decreasing and shorts increasing.
Seasonality also favors NZD relative to CHF, while retail remains 56% long, leaving room for another downside liquidity sweep first.
So I'm not looking to buy yet.
I want the sell-off first. Then I'll watch the Weekly Demand for confirmation of a potential reversal.
🎯 0.4700 → 0.4665 → 0.4630
If bullish structure appears there, NZDCHF could become much more interesting from the long side.
NQ H1 before London session 👀
Price is trading back inside the H1 imbalance after sweeping the sell-side liquidity around 29,151.
For now, I’m watching how price reacts around the 29,320–29,450 area. A rejection could bring sell-side liquidity back into play, while acceptance above would shift my focus toward the buy stops near the highs.
Price is trading back inside the H1 imbalance after sweeping the sell-side liquidity around 29,151.
For now, I’m watching how price reacts around the 29,320–29,450 area. A rejection could bring sell-side liquidity back into play, while acceptance above would shift my focus toward the buy stops near the highs.
FX pairs on my watchlist today
🔴 EURAUD — Short
🟢 EURGBP — Long
🟢 AUDUSD — Long
🔴 NZDCHF — Short
Bias is set, now waiting for price action to confirm.
🔴 EURAUD — Short
🟢 EURGBP — Long
🟢 AUDUSD — Long
🔴 NZDCHF — Short
Bias is set, now waiting for price action to confirm.
NQ | NY PM Session 📈
Took this long during NY PM after price swept sell-side liquidity on M15.
Dropped down to M1 and waited for my confirmation. Price gave me a clean iFVG with an OB as the starting point of the move, so I took the entry.
Once price reached 1R and traded into the 50% of the M1 OB, I moved my stop to BE. Price reacted from the OB and eventually came back to my entry.
Result: BE.
Onto the next one. 🫡
Took this long during NY PM after price swept sell-side liquidity on M15.
Dropped down to M1 and waited for my confirmation. Price gave me a clean iFVG with an OB as the starting point of the move, so I took the entry.
Once price reached 1R and traded into the 50% of the M1 OB, I moved my stop to BE. Price reacted from the OB and eventually came back to my entry.
Result: BE.
Onto the next one. 🫡
NQ Long — PM New York Session 📈
Trade taken ahead of the FED rate decision.
I waited for the M15 sell-side liquidity sweep, then dropped down to M1. After the sweep, I waited for an Order Block to form and entered on the FVG created by the move that took the M15 sell-side liquidity.
🎯 TP HIT — 1:1.8 RR | +1.1%
Happy with the read, but not 100% satisfied with my execution. I entered slightly above my ideal entry and risked 0.7% instead of my usual 0.8%, so I ended up banking +1.1% instead of roughly +1.4%.
Trade taken ahead of the FED rate decision.
I waited for the M15 sell-side liquidity sweep, then dropped down to M1. After the sweep, I waited for an Order Block to form and entered on the FVG created by the move that took the M15 sell-side liquidity.
🎯 TP HIT — 1:1.8 RR | +1.1%
Happy with the read, but not 100% satisfied with my execution. I entered slightly above my ideal entry and risked 0.7% instead of my usual 0.8%, so I ended up banking +1.1% instead of roughly +1.4%.