NQ | PM New York Session — Trade Missed 📉
Pretty much a textbook setup during the NY PM Session.
On M1, price swept the M15 Buy Stops, immediately rejected the area and started showing clear bearish intent.
From there, the setup developed very cleanly:
→ M15 Buy Stops sweep
→ M1 structure shift
→ Breaker formation
→ Breaker retest
→ Short entry
→ Target at the M15 Bullish Order Block
Simple and clean setup with a solid R:R.
The problem? I wasn’t at my desk.
I was out for work and, ironically, I even opened TradingView on my phone and spotted the potential setup almost immediately.
I could have tried to execute it from my phone, but I decided to let it go. With this kind of trading, I prefer to be at my desk, properly read the PA and, most importantly, not lower my execution standards just because I’m afraid of missing a trade.
A bit frustrating, as this would have been the perfect trade to recover yesterday’s loss and bring both the week and the month back into the green.
Pretty much a textbook setup during the NY PM Session.
On M1, price swept the M15 Buy Stops, immediately rejected the area and started showing clear bearish intent.
From there, the setup developed very cleanly:
→ M15 Buy Stops sweep
→ M1 structure shift
→ Breaker formation
→ Breaker retest
→ Short entry
→ Target at the M15 Bullish Order Block
Simple and clean setup with a solid R:R.
The problem? I wasn’t at my desk.
I was out for work and, ironically, I even opened TradingView on my phone and spotted the potential setup almost immediately.
I could have tried to execute it from my phone, but I decided to let it go. With this kind of trading, I prefer to be at my desk, properly read the PA and, most importantly, not lower my execution standards just because I’m afraid of missing a trade.
A bit frustrating, as this would have been the perfect trade to recover yesterday’s loss and bring both the week and the month back into the green.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is sitting at a crucial decision area around 1.3505–1.3530, and despite bearish absolute COT positioning, there are some interesting changes happening underneath the surface:
→ GBP COT still net short, but improving
→ +16K new speculative longs this week
→ 61% of retail traders are SHORT
→ Bullish technical structure still intact
→ 1.3640–1.3670 remains the upside liquidity target
→ 1.3505 is my key invalidation level
My bias: moderately bullish while price holds above 1.3505.
Full breakdown with COT + Seasonality + Sentiment + Macro + Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is sitting at a crucial decision area around 1.3505–1.3530, and despite bearish absolute COT positioning, there are some interesting changes happening underneath the surface:
→ GBP COT still net short, but improving
→ +16K new speculative longs this week
→ 61% of retail traders are SHORT
→ Bullish technical structure still intact
→ 1.3640–1.3670 remains the upside liquidity target
→ 1.3505 is my key invalidation level
My bias: moderately bullish while price holds above 1.3505.
Full breakdown with COT + Seasonality + Sentiment + Macro + Technical Analysis
WEEKLY MACRO RECAP & OUTLOOK 🌍
Last week, the focus remained on the US economy and Federal Reserve, with Core PCE and GDP broadly in line with expectations, while Jackson Hole and the Fed's latest communication kept monetary policy expectations at the center of the market narrative.
Now attention shifts to a new week packed with major catalysts:
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇦🇺 Australian GDP
🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference
🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision & Press Conference
🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speech
🇺🇸 NFP, Unemployment & Wage Growth
The main question for markets will be whether incoming data confirms the current monetary policy expectations, or forces another repricing across FX, bonds and equities.
Last week, the focus remained on the US economy and Federal Reserve, with Core PCE and GDP broadly in line with expectations, while Jackson Hole and the Fed's latest communication kept monetary policy expectations at the center of the market narrative.
Now attention shifts to a new week packed with major catalysts:
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇦🇺 Australian GDP
🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference
🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision & Press Conference
🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speech
🇺🇸 NFP, Unemployment & Wage Growth
The main question for markets will be whether incoming data confirms the current monetary policy expectations, or forces another repricing across FX, bonds and equities.
📊 WEEKLY COT REPORT — POSITIONING UPDATE
This week's COT shows some important shifts in institutional positioning. The key is not only where speculators are positioned, but how exposure is changing week over week.
🇺🇸 USD: +18.7K net → Bullish, but momentum slightly weakening.
🇪🇺 EUR: -36.4K net → Still bearish, but strong improvement driven by -20K shorts.
🇬🇧 GBP: -44.5K net → Bearish, but improving with +16.3K new longs.
🇦🇺 AUD: -44.5K net → Bearish, with little directional change.
🇳🇿 NZD: -14.2K net → Strong improvement: +3.2K longs / -15.2K shorts.
🇨🇦 CAD: -121.5K net → Still heavily bearish, but massive +36.6K weekly net improvement.
🇨🇭 CHF: -19.9K net → Bearish, but improving.
🇯🇵 JPY: -63.3K net → Bearish and deteriorating, with +9.8K new shorts.
🥇 GOLD: +243.3K net → Strong bullish accumulation, +20.3K new longs.
📈 NASDAQ: +10K net → Strong bullish shift, driven by new longs + short covering.
🔎 KEY TAKEAWAY
🟢 Strongest positive shifts: CAD, EUR, NZD, Gold, Nasdaq
🟢 Improving: GBP, CHF
🟡 Neutral momentum: AUD
🔴 Weakening: JPY
🇺🇸 USD remains bullish, but without aggressive new accumulation.
This week's COT shows some important shifts in institutional positioning. The key is not only where speculators are positioned, but how exposure is changing week over week.
🇺🇸 USD: +18.7K net → Bullish, but momentum slightly weakening.
🇪🇺 EUR: -36.4K net → Still bearish, but strong improvement driven by -20K shorts.
🇬🇧 GBP: -44.5K net → Bearish, but improving with +16.3K new longs.
🇦🇺 AUD: -44.5K net → Bearish, with little directional change.
🇳🇿 NZD: -14.2K net → Strong improvement: +3.2K longs / -15.2K shorts.
🇨🇦 CAD: -121.5K net → Still heavily bearish, but massive +36.6K weekly net improvement.
🇨🇭 CHF: -19.9K net → Bearish, but improving.
🇯🇵 JPY: -63.3K net → Bearish and deteriorating, with +9.8K new shorts.
🥇 GOLD: +243.3K net → Strong bullish accumulation, +20.3K new longs.
📈 NASDAQ: +10K net → Strong bullish shift, driven by new longs + short covering.
🔎 KEY TAKEAWAY
🟢 Strongest positive shifts: CAD, EUR, NZD, Gold, Nasdaq
🟢 Improving: GBP, CHF
🟡 Neutral momentum: AUD
🔴 Weakening: JPY
🇺🇸 USD remains bullish, but without aggressive new accumulation.
📊 WEEKLY TRADING RECAP | AUG 24–28
Not the week I wanted, but definitely one I can learn from.
I'm currently working on two prop accounts:
🔹 FundedNext 50K — Phase 2: essentially flat this week at -$0.07. The priority remains capital protection and completing the final phase without forcing trades.
🔹 Apex 100K — Phase 1: -$1.06K this week.
A difficult week after a strong start earlier in the month.
The main takeaway came from reviewing my executions: waiting for the perfect retest after price has already accepted a key level can sometimes mean missing the entire move.
Something I'm now studying more deeply:
Level acceptance + sufficient RR → potential direct execution.
Insufficient RR → wait for the retest.
No emotional strategy changes after a losing week. The goal is to collect more data, refine the execution model and come back next week focused on the process.
Not the week I wanted, but definitely one I can learn from.
I'm currently working on two prop accounts:
🔹 FundedNext 50K — Phase 2: essentially flat this week at -$0.07. The priority remains capital protection and completing the final phase without forcing trades.
🔹 Apex 100K — Phase 1: -$1.06K this week.
A difficult week after a strong start earlier in the month.
The main takeaway came from reviewing my executions: waiting for the perfect retest after price has already accepted a key level can sometimes mean missing the entire move.
Something I'm now studying more deeply:
Level acceptance + sufficient RR → potential direct execution.
Insufficient RR → wait for the retest.
No emotional strategy changes after a losing week. The goal is to collect more data, refine the execution model and come back next week focused on the process.
🥇 GOLD TO $5,000
My medium-term outlook on Gold remains bullish, but after the strong August rally I believe XAUUSD could first experience a correction.
COT positioning remains extremely bullish, with large speculators heavily net long, but positioning is becoming crowded. Retail traders are also 61% long, while September seasonality is negative across all the main historical periods I’m monitoring.
My main area of interest remains $4,200–$4,300. If Gold corrects into this Weekly area and buyers return, I will start looking again toward $4,600 → $4,800 → $5,000.
Short-term corrective. Medium-term bullish.
My medium-term outlook on Gold remains bullish, but after the strong August rally I believe XAUUSD could first experience a correction.
COT positioning remains extremely bullish, with large speculators heavily net long, but positioning is becoming crowded. Retail traders are also 61% long, while September seasonality is negative across all the main historical periods I’m monitoring.
My main area of interest remains $4,200–$4,300. If Gold corrects into this Weekly area and buyers return, I will start looking again toward $4,600 → $4,800 → $5,000.
Short-term corrective. Medium-term bullish.
📊 AUDJPY: 88% of retail traders are short
AUDJPY remains technically bullish, but price is currently trading inside a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80.
For this reason, I am not interested in chasing long positions at the current price.
My preferred scenario is a sweep of the liquidity above the recent highs, followed by a correction toward the Daily imbalances located around 114.00 and, ideally, between 113.00 and 113.50.
If price reaches this demand area and provides bullish confirmation, I will look for a possible continuation above 114.80, targeting the 115.00+ region.
Sentiment is heavily unbalanced, with 88% of retail traders short, which could fuel a bullish continuation.
However, September seasonality favours a weaker AUD and a stronger JPY, while COT positioning remains mixed.
📌 Bullish structure, but patience is required. I prefer buying from demand rather than chasing price inside resistance.
❌ A Daily close below 112.68 would weaken the setup.
AUDJPY remains technically bullish, but price is currently trading inside a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80.
For this reason, I am not interested in chasing long positions at the current price.
My preferred scenario is a sweep of the liquidity above the recent highs, followed by a correction toward the Daily imbalances located around 114.00 and, ideally, between 113.00 and 113.50.
If price reaches this demand area and provides bullish confirmation, I will look for a possible continuation above 114.80, targeting the 115.00+ region.
Sentiment is heavily unbalanced, with 88% of retail traders short, which could fuel a bullish continuation.
However, September seasonality favours a weaker AUD and a stronger JPY, while COT positioning remains mixed.
📌 Bullish structure, but patience is required. I prefer buying from demand rather than chasing price inside resistance.
❌ A Daily close below 112.68 would weaken the setup.
WTI CRUDE OIL — $95–97 IS MY KEY AREA 🛢️
My HTF bias remains bullish, but I am not interested in chasing WTI around $90.
I am watching $94–97 area + buy-side liquidity very closely.
COT positioning remains net bullish, fundamentals are supportive, while Q4 seasonality makes me more cautious about buying at current levels.
My preferred scenario is:
$94–97 liquidity sweep → bearish confirmation → $78–80 → potentially $72–74 HTF demand.
If buyers defend $72–74, I will reassess longs toward $104–106 / $118–120.
If instead WTI establishes acceptance above $97, I will drop the deeper pullback scenario and focus on continuation higher.
My HTF bias remains bullish, but I am not interested in chasing WTI around $90.
I am watching $94–97 area + buy-side liquidity very closely.
COT positioning remains net bullish, fundamentals are supportive, while Q4 seasonality makes me more cautious about buying at current levels.
My preferred scenario is:
$94–97 liquidity sweep → bearish confirmation → $78–80 → potentially $72–74 HTF demand.
If buyers defend $72–74, I will reassess longs toward $104–106 / $118–120.
If instead WTI establishes acceptance above $97, I will drop the deeper pullback scenario and focus on continuation higher.
NQ SESSION RECAP 02/09/2026
No trades for me today.
During the post-lunch session, NQ remained mostly range-bound, rotating between nearby liquidity levels without developing any clean directional structure.
There were potential liquidity targets on both sides, but no displacement or confirmation strong enough to justify an entry according to my plan.
In this type of environment, forcing a position usually means trading noise rather than an actual setup.
So today the best execution was simple: stay patient, protect capital and wait for better conditions.
No trades for me today.
During the post-lunch session, NQ remained mostly range-bound, rotating between nearby liquidity levels without developing any clean directional structure.
There were potential liquidity targets on both sides, but no displacement or confirmation strong enough to justify an entry according to my plan.
In this type of environment, forcing a position usually means trading noise rather than an actual setup.
So today the best execution was simple: stay patient, protect capital and wait for better conditions.
EUR/USD: BEARISH… BUT I'M NOT SELLING YET. 📉
My HTF bias remains bearish, but EUR/USD is currently trading in an area where I don't see enough asymmetry to justify chasing shorts.
What supports my bearish view?
📊 COT EUR: speculators remain net short by ~36K contracts
💵 COT DXY: non-commercial positioning remains strongly net long USD
📅 Seasonality: recent 5Y/10Y September tendencies favor EUR weakness
📉 Structure: price remains below the major descending trendline
👥 Retail sentiment: 64% of traders are already SHORT
With retail heavily short and EUR speculative shorts being reduced, I see a real possibility of a short squeeze before the next bearish leg.
My preferred area:
🔴 1.1640–1.1680 → potential SHORT zone
Then I want confirmation. No blind entries.
Downside areas:
🎯 1.1540–1.1500
🎯 1.1450
🎯 1.1400–1.1360
My HTF bias remains bearish, but EUR/USD is currently trading in an area where I don't see enough asymmetry to justify chasing shorts.
What supports my bearish view?
📊 COT EUR: speculators remain net short by ~36K contracts
💵 COT DXY: non-commercial positioning remains strongly net long USD
📅 Seasonality: recent 5Y/10Y September tendencies favor EUR weakness
📉 Structure: price remains below the major descending trendline
👥 Retail sentiment: 64% of traders are already SHORT
With retail heavily short and EUR speculative shorts being reduced, I see a real possibility of a short squeeze before the next bearish leg.
My preferred area:
🔴 1.1640–1.1680 → potential SHORT zone
Then I want confirmation. No blind entries.
Downside areas:
🎯 1.1540–1.1500
🎯 1.1450
🎯 1.1400–1.1360
📉 GBP/JPY
Following the rejection from 217.00–217.70, GBP/JPY broke decisively below the 211.84 and 209.50 support levels, confirming that the current structure remains bearish.
Price has entered the first demand zone, but I am not looking to anticipate a long position.
With 86% of retail traders already positioned long, the market could still search for liquidity towards the deeper 206.50–205.20 demand area.
My preferred scenario:
🔸 Liquidity sweep into 206.50–205.20
🔸 Recovery above 207.80–208.20
🔸 Bullish CHOCH/BOS on the lower timeframes
🔸 Retest and confirmation before entry
Potential targets: 209.00 – 209.50 – 210.84 – 211.84.
As long as price remains below 209.50–210.84, my short-term bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Personal market analysis. This is not financial advice.
Following the rejection from 217.00–217.70, GBP/JPY broke decisively below the 211.84 and 209.50 support levels, confirming that the current structure remains bearish.
Price has entered the first demand zone, but I am not looking to anticipate a long position.
With 86% of retail traders already positioned long, the market could still search for liquidity towards the deeper 206.50–205.20 demand area.
My preferred scenario:
🔸 Liquidity sweep into 206.50–205.20
🔸 Recovery above 207.80–208.20
🔸 Bullish CHOCH/BOS on the lower timeframes
🔸 Retest and confirmation before entry
Potential targets: 209.00 – 209.50 – 210.84 – 211.84.
As long as price remains below 209.50–210.84, my short-term bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Personal market analysis. This is not financial advice.
📊 NQ — Before London Open
NQ swept the short-term buy-side liquidity around 29,760 and is now trading back below PWH (29,704.50) and PDH (29,683.50).
🔹 Immediate support: H1 FVG around 29,640–29,650
🔹 Main demand area: 29,603.50–29,635
🔹 Bearish target if support fails: PDL at 29,530.50
🔹 Bullish scenario: reclaiming 29,683–29,705 could open another move toward 29,760 and the higher buy-side liquidity near 29,810
For now, price is trading between liquidity zones. I’ll wait for the London Open reaction and clear lower-timeframe confirmation before taking any position.
NQ swept the short-term buy-side liquidity around 29,760 and is now trading back below PWH (29,704.50) and PDH (29,683.50).
🔹 Immediate support: H1 FVG around 29,640–29,650
🔹 Main demand area: 29,603.50–29,635
🔹 Bearish target if support fails: PDL at 29,530.50
🔹 Bullish scenario: reclaiming 29,683–29,705 could open another move toward 29,760 and the higher buy-side liquidity near 29,810
For now, price is trading between liquidity zones. I’ll wait for the London Open reaction and clear lower-timeframe confirmation before taking any position.
📉 USDJPY: 86% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE LONG
My current bias on USDJPY remains bearish after the rejection from the 163.70–164.00 weekly supply zone.
Price has:
✅ Swept liquidity around 159.80–160.40
✅ Broken the ascending trendline
✅ Lost the 155.00–155.20 support
✅ Confirmed a lower-high and lower-low structure
However, USDJPY is already trading near 153.47, inside a major weekly demand zone. For this reason, I am not interested in chasing a short at the current price.
My preferred setup would be a retracement toward 154.80–155.30, followed by an H1/H4 bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 152.20 and 151.50
⚠️ Initial invalidation: above 156.50
❌ Structural invalidation: daily close above 157.50
Retail sentiment strengthens the bearish case: 86% of traders are long, with an average entry around 156.48.
COT positioning and September seasonality remain bullish for USDJPY, so there is no perfect alignment.
Full analysis on TradingView 📊
My current bias on USDJPY remains bearish after the rejection from the 163.70–164.00 weekly supply zone.
Price has:
✅ Swept liquidity around 159.80–160.40
✅ Broken the ascending trendline
✅ Lost the 155.00–155.20 support
✅ Confirmed a lower-high and lower-low structure
However, USDJPY is already trading near 153.47, inside a major weekly demand zone. For this reason, I am not interested in chasing a short at the current price.
My preferred setup would be a retracement toward 154.80–155.30, followed by an H1/H4 bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 152.20 and 151.50
⚠️ Initial invalidation: above 156.50
❌ Structural invalidation: daily close above 157.50
Retail sentiment strengthens the bearish case: 86% of traders are long, with an average entry around 156.48.
COT positioning and September seasonality remain bullish for USDJPY, so there is no perfect alignment.
Full analysis on TradingView 📊
GBPCHF - DAILY CHART 📊
My outlook on the pair remains bullish.
GBPCHF has broken above the resistance area, confirming a daily structure of higher highs and higher lows.
Before the next continuation, I would not rule out a pullback towards 1.1000 or into the main demand zone between 1.0935 and 1.0965.
📊 My main confirmations:
• Non-commercial traders are net short CHF by 29,985 contracts
• Speculators reduced their CHF longs and simultaneously added new shorts
• September seasonality is consistently negative for the Swiss franc
• 84% of retail traders are currently short GBPCHF
• The breakout above 1.1000 has strengthened the bullish structure
I will not chase the price at the current highs. My preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback followed by bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes.
⚠️ This is my personal market analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
My outlook on the pair remains bullish.
GBPCHF has broken above the resistance area, confirming a daily structure of higher highs and higher lows.
Before the next continuation, I would not rule out a pullback towards 1.1000 or into the main demand zone between 1.0935 and 1.0965.
📊 My main confirmations:
• Non-commercial traders are net short CHF by 29,985 contracts
• Speculators reduced their CHF longs and simultaneously added new shorts
• September seasonality is consistently negative for the Swiss franc
• 84% of retail traders are currently short GBPCHF
• The breakout above 1.1000 has strengthened the bullish structure
I will not chase the price at the current highs. My preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback followed by bullish confirmation on the lower timeframes.
⚠️ This is my personal market analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
🇳🇿🇨🇭 NZDCHF Analysis
NZDCHF is approaching an interesting point.
Technically, I remain bearish below 0.4750–0.4760, with liquidity around 0.4700 and a potential continuation toward my 0.4635–0.4560 Weekly Demand Zone.
But the bigger picture is starting to tell a different story.
📊 NZD Non-Commercial positioning: Net +6.2K, with +14.8K new longs in the latest COT report.
📊 CHF Non-Commercial positioning: approximately Net -30K, with longs decreasing and shorts increasing.
Seasonality also favors NZD relative to CHF, while retail remains 56% long, leaving room for another downside liquidity sweep first.
So I'm not looking to buy yet.
I want the sell-off first. Then I'll watch the Weekly Demand for confirmation of a potential reversal.
🎯 0.4700 → 0.4665 → 0.4630
If bullish structure appears there, NZDCHF could become much more interesting from the long side.
NZDCHF is approaching an interesting point.
Technically, I remain bearish below 0.4750–0.4760, with liquidity around 0.4700 and a potential continuation toward my 0.4635–0.4560 Weekly Demand Zone.
But the bigger picture is starting to tell a different story.
📊 NZD Non-Commercial positioning: Net +6.2K, with +14.8K new longs in the latest COT report.
📊 CHF Non-Commercial positioning: approximately Net -30K, with longs decreasing and shorts increasing.
Seasonality also favors NZD relative to CHF, while retail remains 56% long, leaving room for another downside liquidity sweep first.
So I'm not looking to buy yet.
I want the sell-off first. Then I'll watch the Weekly Demand for confirmation of a potential reversal.
🎯 0.4700 → 0.4665 → 0.4630
If bullish structure appears there, NZDCHF could become much more interesting from the long side.