NQ pre-London session

Price is reacting inside the H1 FVG after sweeping buy-side liquidity.

Watching this area closely for the next move into London. 🎯

NQ | PM New York Session — Trade Missed 📉

Pretty much a textbook setup during the NY PM Session.

On M1, price swept the M15 Buy Stops, immediately rejected the area and started showing clear bearish intent.
From there, the setup developed very cleanly:
→ M15 Buy Stops sweep
→ M1 structure shift
→ Breaker formation
→ Breaker retest
→ Short entry
→ Target at the M15 Bullish Order Block
Simple and clean setup with a solid R:R.

The problem? I wasn’t at my desk.
I was out for work and, ironically, I even opened TradingView on my phone and spotted the potential setup almost immediately.

I could have tried to execute it from my phone, but I decided to let it go. With this kind of trading, I prefer to be at my desk, properly read the PA and, most importantly, not lower my execution standards just because I’m afraid of missing a trade.

A bit frustrating, as this would have been the perfect trade to recover yesterday’s loss and bring both the week and the month back into the green.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is sitting at a crucial decision area around 1.3505–1.3530, and despite bearish absolute COT positioning, there are some interesting changes happening underneath the surface:
→ GBP COT still net short, but improving
→ +16K new speculative longs this week
→ 61% of retail traders are SHORT
→ Bullish technical structure still intact
→ 1.3640–1.3670 remains the upside liquidity target
→ 1.3505 is my key invalidation level

My bias: moderately bullish while price holds above 1.3505.

Full breakdown with COT + Seasonality + Sentiment + Macro + Technical Analysis

WEEKLY MACRO RECAP & OUTLOOK 🌍

Last week, the focus remained on the US economy and Federal Reserve, with Core PCE and GDP broadly in line with expectations, while Jackson Hole and the Fed's latest communication kept monetary policy expectations at the center of the market narrative.

Now attention shifts to a new week packed with major catalysts:
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇦🇺 Australian GDP
🇳🇿 RBNZ Rate Decision & Press Conference
🇨🇦 BoC Rate Decision & Press Conference
🇬🇧 BoE Governor Bailey Speech
🇺🇸 NFP, Unemployment & Wage Growth

The main question for markets will be whether incoming data confirms the current monetary policy expectations, or forces another repricing across FX, bonds and equities.

📊 WEEKLY COT REPORT — POSITIONING UPDATE

This week's COT shows some important shifts in institutional positioning. The key is not only where speculators are positioned, but how exposure is changing week over week.

🇺🇸 USD: +18.7K net → Bullish, but momentum slightly weakening.
🇪🇺 EUR: -36.4K net → Still bearish, but strong improvement driven by -20K shorts.
🇬🇧 GBP: -44.5K net → Bearish, but improving with +16.3K new longs.
🇦🇺 AUD: -44.5K net → Bearish, with little directional change.
🇳🇿 NZD: -14.2K net → Strong improvement: +3.2K longs / -15.2K shorts.
🇨🇦 CAD: -121.5K net → Still heavily bearish, but massive +36.6K weekly net improvement.
🇨🇭 CHF: -19.9K net → Bearish, but improving.
🇯🇵 JPY: -63.3K net → Bearish and deteriorating, with +9.8K new shorts.
🥇 GOLD: +243.3K net → Strong bullish accumulation, +20.3K new longs.
📈 NASDAQ: +10K net → Strong bullish shift, driven by new longs + short covering.

🔎 KEY TAKEAWAY
🟢 Strongest positive shifts: CAD, EUR, NZD, Gold, Nasdaq
🟢 Improving: GBP, CHF
🟡 Neutral momentum: AUD
🔴 Weakening: JPY
🇺🇸 USD remains bullish, but without aggressive new accumulation.

📊 WEEKLY TRADING RECAP | AUG 24–28

Not the week I wanted, but definitely one I can learn from.
I'm currently working on two prop accounts:
🔹 FundedNext 50K — Phase 2: essentially flat this week at -$0.07. The priority remains capital protection and completing the final phase without forcing trades.
🔹 Apex 100K — Phase 1: -$1.06K this week.

A difficult week after a strong start earlier in the month.

The main takeaway came from reviewing my executions: waiting for the perfect retest after price has already accepted a key level can sometimes mean missing the entire move.

Something I'm now studying more deeply:
Level acceptance + sufficient RR → potential direct execution.
Insufficient RR → wait for the retest.

No emotional strategy changes after a losing week. The goal is to collect more data, refine the execution model and come back next week focused on the process.

🥇 GOLD TO $5,000

My medium-term outlook on Gold remains bullish, but after the strong August rally I believe XAUUSD could first experience a correction.

COT positioning remains extremely bullish, with large speculators heavily net long, but positioning is becoming crowded. Retail traders are also 61% long, while September seasonality is negative across all the main historical periods I’m monitoring.

My main area of interest remains $4,200–$4,300. If Gold corrects into this Weekly area and buyers return, I will start looking again toward $4,600 → $4,800 → $5,000.
Short-term corrective. Medium-term bullish.

NQ — Daily Recap 31/08/2026

Short taken on M1 after a manual Breaker retest, exactly according to my trading plan.
Unfortunately, price hit my SL before delivering the expected move and eventually reaching the target.

The setup was valid, risk was controlled and the plan was followed 100%.

📊 AUDJPY: 88% of retail traders are short

AUDJPY remains technically bullish, but price is currently trading inside a major Daily resistance zone between 114.35 and 114.80.
For this reason, I am not interested in chasing long positions at the current price.
My preferred scenario is a sweep of the liquidity above the recent highs, followed by a correction toward the Daily imbalances located around 114.00 and, ideally, between 113.00 and 113.50.
If price reaches this demand area and provides bullish confirmation, I will look for a possible continuation above 114.80, targeting the 115.00+ region.

Sentiment is heavily unbalanced, with 88% of retail traders short, which could fuel a bullish continuation.

However, September seasonality favours a weaker AUD and a stronger JPY, while COT positioning remains mixed.

📌 Bullish structure, but patience is required. I prefer buying from demand rather than chasing price inside resistance.

❌ A Daily close below 112.68 would weaken the setup.

NQ Daily Recap 📊
1 trade → BE

Clean execution of the trading plan. Price moved in our favor, risk was protected, but the afternoon session remained compressed as we've seen over the last few days.

No forcing trades. No overtrading.

Plan executed. Risk protected. Day done. ✅

WTI CRUDE OIL — $95–97 IS MY KEY AREA 🛢️

My HTF bias remains bullish, but I am not interested in chasing WTI around $90.

I am watching $94–97 area + buy-side liquidity very closely.
COT positioning remains net bullish, fundamentals are supportive, while Q4 seasonality makes me more cautious about buying at current levels.

My preferred scenario is:
$94–97 liquidity sweep → bearish confirmation → $78–80 → potentially $72–74 HTF demand.
If buyers defend $72–74, I will reassess longs toward $104–106 / $118–120.

If instead WTI establishes acceptance above $97, I will drop the deeper pullback scenario and focus on continuation higher.

NQ SESSION RECAP 02/09/2026

No trades for me today.

During the post-lunch session, NQ remained mostly range-bound, rotating between nearby liquidity levels without developing any clean directional structure.

There were potential liquidity targets on both sides, but no displacement or confirmation strong enough to justify an entry according to my plan.

In this type of environment, forcing a position usually means trading noise rather than an actual setup.

So today the best execution was simple: stay patient, protect capital and wait for better conditions.

NQ Pre-London Outlook | H1

Price is trading inside the H1 breaker, below the key 29,190.50 level and PDH at 29,213.
Holding below this resistance keeps the focus on the lower H1 imbalance around 29,040–29,000. A clean reclaim of PDH could instead open the way toward the upper liquidity zones.