EUR/USD BREAKOUT CONFIRMED: IS 1.1800 NEXT? 📈

EUR/USD has broken the descending trendline and continues to develop a bullish structure.

My preferred scenario is a pullback toward 1.1635–1.1640, followed by bullish confirmation and continuation toward 1.1750 and potentially 1.1790–1.1800.

The COT report remains net bearish on the euro, although positioning improved slightly this week.

Meanwhile, USD longs declined and 76% of retail traders remain short EUR/USD, providing an interesting contrarian signal in favour of further upside.

My bias remains bullish above 1.1635. A move below 1.1540 would weaken the setup, while 1.1495 represents the main invalidation level.

The complete analysis and chart are now available on TradingView

📊 GBP/JPY: 90% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE SHORT

GBP/JPY swept the liquidity below the previous lows and then developed a strong bullish structure.

🔹 Retail sentiment: 90% short and only 10% long
🔹 COT report: speculative positioning deteriorated significantly on the JPY side
🔹 Technical structure: higher highs and higher lows from the 211.00 area
🔹 Short-squeeze potential above the current resistance levels
⚠️ August seasonality remains predominantly negative, while price is already trading inside the 216.50–219.50 resistance zone.

My preferred setup would be a pullback toward 216.00 or 214.80–215.20, followed by bullish confirmation across the M15 and H1 timeframes.
🎯 Levels to watch: 217.80 – 218.60 – 219.50

NQ PM Session 📉

I had a clean bearish setup on Nasdaq.
I waited for the M1 BOS to confirm the bearish structure.
I planned my entry on the M1 Breaker retest.
Price never came back to mitigate the BR, so I didn't get filled.
Price then continued directly into my target: 50% of the M15 iFVG.

My analysis was correct, but my entry conditions were never met.
And that's completely fine.

No retest = No trade.

🚨 NZDCHF REVERSAL AHEAD?

🇳🇿 NZD: Open Interest -7,687 → potential short covering
🇨🇭 CHF: Non-Commercial Longs +4,268 + Open Interest +3,875
📊 Seasonality: historically bearish NZD in August
👥 Retail: 69% SHORT → contrarian warning
📉 Price: testing key Daily supply around 0.4785–0.4805

My bias is BEARISH, but the Daily structure is still bullish.
So I am NOT trying to predict the top.
I am waiting for:
Liquidity Sweep → Rejection → H1 CHOCH/BOS → Retest
🎯 0.4740 → 0.4710 → 0.4650

The location is there.
The COT divergence is there.
The seasonality is there.
Now I need the trigger.

📊 NY SESSION RECAP

Another session where the read was right, but the market never gave me the entry I wanted.

I was waiting for the retest of the first BR. It never came and price went straight to my planned TP.
Order unfilled for the second session in a row.

Later, after the mini rally, I took a second setup from a higher BR and closed it at BE. Good management, especially considering what happened afterwards.

But I’m not fully satisfied with that second trade.

The setup was technically valid, but the execution came more from the frustration of missing the first move than from my trading plan.

USDJPY Analysis

📊 JPY Non-Commercial positioning: -52,893 net contracts
💵 USD Index positioning: +19,079 net contracts
📉 August seasonality: historically bearish
👥 Retail positioning: 58% LONG
📈 Daily structure: still constructive

COT and seasonality are currently telling two different stories.
Institutional positioning continues to support USDJPY, but historical seasonality suggests we could still see another period of weakness before the next major expansion.
Personally, I'm not interested in chasing longs around 159.00.

I'm watching:
🎯 158.20–158.50 for a potential bullish setup
🎯 159.60–160.00 for a possible rejection/liquidity sweep
🎯 162.00 as the key level that could unlock further upside

👇 Read the full analysis on Tradingview

🇬🇧 NQ — LONDON SESSION

Price swept the overnight sell-side liquidity and reacted strongly, reclaiming PWL around 29,202.
Now NQ is trading inside a key H1 area around 29,250–29,270.

📈 Above: liquidity toward 29,320 → 29,400/29,425
📉 Below: 29,202 → 29,150 → 29,090

No reason to force an entry here. I’m waiting for liquidity + confirmation before taking a position.

NQ Futures | NY PM 📉

Loss today, but the execution followed the plan.
M15 liquidity → M1 sweep → first Breaker → retest → entry.

Buy-side liquidity was taken, so I looked for a short. The setup was valid, although in hindsight there may have been too little room for the trade to develop.
Losses are part of the game.

A cleaner setup appeared later, but with only 20 minutes left in my session, I skipped it.

Rule: no new trades in the last 30 minutes.

I take the loss, learn from it, and come back tomorrow. 🤝

EUR/GBP is building an interesting setup around 0.8578.

📊 63% of retail traders are SHORT
📈 August seasonality is bullish across 20Y, 15Y, 10Y and 5Y samples
🏦 COT remains neutral
🎯 Technical structure points toward 0.8635–0.8690 if the current range breaks

The higher-timeframe structure is still bearish, so I’m not calling for a full reversal yet.

My scenario is simple:
Consolidation → Breakout above 0.8590 → Retest → 0.8635/0.8690

I’ve published the complete EUR/GBP breakdown on TradingView, including technical structure, retail sentiment, seasonality and COT positioning.