📊 NQ — Missed Trade | PM Session

Yesterday, I correctly identified and marked this long setup on NQ:

1️⃣ Sell-side liquidity sweep
2️⃣ Formation of an M1 breaker
3️⃣ Price acceptance above the high of the candle that created the breaker
4️⃣ Retest of the M1 breaker for the entry
5️⃣ Stop loss below the breaker low
6️⃣ Target at the 50% level of the M15 iFVG above

The analysis played out perfectly and price reached the target, but I didn’t execute the trade due to a lack of clarity and focus at that moment.

The market read was correct, no regrets: review it, learn from it and improve.🧠

Ready for another day!

EURAUD Analysis

My bias remains bearish after the break of the ascending trendline and the formation of lower highs below the main descending resistance.

I’m not chasing the move into Daily demand. I’ll wait for a pullback toward:
📍 1.6350–1.6400
📍 1.6470–1.6505

My main targets are 1.6250 and 1.6200–1.6190.

With 80% of retail traders positioned long, sentiment also supports my bearish outlook. COT and seasonality remain mixed, so I will wait for H1/H4 confirmation.

EURAUD analysis on TradingView

TODAY’S NQ PM SESSION

After M15 sell-side liquidity was taken, I waited for an M1 breaker to form and entered on the retest.
Thirty minutes later, price was still moving around my breakeven level. With the cash session close approaching, I manually closed the position even though the setup had not been invalidated.

That was the mistake.

The trade later came very close to the target before returning to breakeven during the final 15 minutes of volatility. The TP may have been slightly ambitious due to the M15 order block above, but the outcome is not the main point.

Once a valid setup is executed, the trade should be managed according to the original plan: TP, breakeven or natural SL without emotional interference.

ALWAYS FOLLOW THE PLAN.

📉 USD/CAD ANALYSIS

📊 COT — CAD
Non-Commercials remain extremely net short CAD, but the latest report shows something interesting:
Longs: -660
Shorts: -6,393
Speculators are reducing CAD shorts significantly faster than longs.
→ Potential CAD short covering.

🇺🇸 COT — USD
The US Dollar remains net long, but speculative bullish positioning has also decreased marginally.

RETAIL SENTIMENT
63% LONG USD/CAD
37% SHORT

📉 PRICE ACTION
Lower Highs + Lower Lows remain intact after the rejection from higher-timeframe supply.
My main retracement area is:
🎯 1.3900–1.3930
Potential downside levels:
1.3840 → 1.3770 → 1.3718

The complete analysis on Tradingview

🚨 GBP/USD ANALYSIS

GBP/USD remains bullish from a structural perspective, but price is now trading inside the 1.3560–1.3650 resistance area, so I prefer waiting for a better entry.
Retail sentiment remains particularly interesting: 70% of traders are SHORT, providing a strong contrarian element while the underlying structure remains bullish.
COT data is more mixed. Large speculators remain net short GBP and net long USD, but the latest changes show a slight improvement for GBP and some reduction in USD long exposure.
Seasonality remains bearish for August, which gives me another reason to stay patient.

🎯 Main area I’m watching: 1.3505–1.3550

If GBP/USD pulls back into this zone and buyers confirm, I’ll start looking for potential continuation towards:
1.3640–1.3660 → 1.3700 → 1.3750+
Below 1.3500, I would reassess the setup.

EUR/USD BREAKOUT CONFIRMED: IS 1.1800 NEXT? 📈

EUR/USD has broken the descending trendline and continues to develop a bullish structure.

My preferred scenario is a pullback toward 1.1635–1.1640, followed by bullish confirmation and continuation toward 1.1750 and potentially 1.1790–1.1800.

The COT report remains net bearish on the euro, although positioning improved slightly this week.

Meanwhile, USD longs declined and 76% of retail traders remain short EUR/USD, providing an interesting contrarian signal in favour of further upside.

My bias remains bullish above 1.1635. A move below 1.1540 would weaken the setup, while 1.1495 represents the main invalidation level.

The complete analysis and chart are now available on TradingView

📊 GBP/JPY: 90% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE SHORT

GBP/JPY swept the liquidity below the previous lows and then developed a strong bullish structure.

🔹 Retail sentiment: 90% short and only 10% long
🔹 COT report: speculative positioning deteriorated significantly on the JPY side
🔹 Technical structure: higher highs and higher lows from the 211.00 area
🔹 Short-squeeze potential above the current resistance levels
⚠️ August seasonality remains predominantly negative, while price is already trading inside the 216.50–219.50 resistance zone.

My preferred setup would be a pullback toward 216.00 or 214.80–215.20, followed by bullish confirmation across the M15 and H1 timeframes.
🎯 Levels to watch: 217.80 – 218.60 – 219.50

NQ PM Session 📉

I had a clean bearish setup on Nasdaq.
I waited for the M1 BOS to confirm the bearish structure.
I planned my entry on the M1 Breaker retest.
Price never came back to mitigate the BR, so I didn't get filled.
Price then continued directly into my target: 50% of the M15 iFVG.

My analysis was correct, but my entry conditions were never met.
And that's completely fine.

No retest = No trade.

🚨 NZDCHF REVERSAL AHEAD?

🇳🇿 NZD: Open Interest -7,687 → potential short covering
🇨🇭 CHF: Non-Commercial Longs +4,268 + Open Interest +3,875
📊 Seasonality: historically bearish NZD in August
👥 Retail: 69% SHORT → contrarian warning
📉 Price: testing key Daily supply around 0.4785–0.4805

My bias is BEARISH, but the Daily structure is still bullish.
So I am NOT trying to predict the top.
I am waiting for:
Liquidity Sweep → Rejection → H1 CHOCH/BOS → Retest
🎯 0.4740 → 0.4710 → 0.4650

The location is there.
The COT divergence is there.
The seasonality is there.
Now I need the trigger.

📊 NY SESSION RECAP

Another session where the read was right, but the market never gave me the entry I wanted.

I was waiting for the retest of the first BR. It never came and price went straight to my planned TP.
Order unfilled for the second session in a row.

Later, after the mini rally, I took a second setup from a higher BR and closed it at BE. Good management, especially considering what happened afterwards.

But I’m not fully satisfied with that second trade.

The setup was technically valid, but the execution came more from the frustration of missing the first move than from my trading plan.

USDJPY Analysis

📊 JPY Non-Commercial positioning: -52,893 net contracts
💵 USD Index positioning: +19,079 net contracts
📉 August seasonality: historically bearish
👥 Retail positioning: 58% LONG
📈 Daily structure: still constructive

COT and seasonality are currently telling two different stories.
Institutional positioning continues to support USDJPY, but historical seasonality suggests we could still see another period of weakness before the next major expansion.
Personally, I'm not interested in chasing longs around 159.00.

I'm watching:
🎯 158.20–158.50 for a potential bullish setup
🎯 159.60–160.00 for a possible rejection/liquidity sweep
🎯 162.00 as the key level that could unlock further upside

👇 Read the full analysis on Tradingview