📊 Today's Watchlist
🔴 CAD/CHF – Short
🟢 GBP/CHF - Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🔴 CAD/CHF – Short
🟢 GBP/CHF - Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
GBP/USD — One Final Push Before the Sell-Off? 👀
My bias remains BEARISH:
🔴 GBP COT: -57.8K
🟢 USD COT: +22.5K
📉 August seasonality: Bearish
⚠️ Retail: 72% SHORT
The heavy retail short positioning makes me cautious about entering now. I’m watching for a potential squeeze toward 1.3550–1.3640 before looking for bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
My bias remains BEARISH:
🔴 GBP COT: -57.8K
🟢 USD COT: +22.5K
📉 August seasonality: Bearish
⚠️ Retail: 72% SHORT
The heavy retail short positioning makes me cautious about entering now. I’m watching for a potential squeeze toward 1.3550–1.3640 before looking for bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
🇺🇸 NQ — PRE-LONDON SESSION
NQ reacted strongly from PDL / H1 demand, leaving multiple bullish FVGs below current price.
For London, I’m watching 29,796–29,746 as the main support area. As long as buyers defend this zone, I see potential for price to continue higher and attack the liquidity above.
🎯 Upside targets:
29,847 → 29,886/29,908 → 29,935
⚠️ A loss of 29,746 would shift my attention back toward PDL 29,718 and the sell-side liquidity below.
NQ reacted strongly from PDL / H1 demand, leaving multiple bullish FVGs below current price.
For London, I’m watching 29,796–29,746 as the main support area. As long as buyers defend this zone, I see potential for price to continue higher and attack the liquidity above.
🎯 Upside targets:
29,847 → 29,886/29,908 → 29,935
⚠️ A loss of 29,746 would shift my attention back toward PDL 29,718 and the sell-side liquidity below.
EUR/CAD is testing the key 1.6000–1.6070 demand zone.
📊 COT
🇪🇺 EUR Net: -58K
🇨🇦 CAD Net: -179K
Relative positioning still favours EUR over CAD.
👥 Sentiment
84% LONG vs 16% SHORT → strong contrarian warning.
📅 Seasonality
Neutral / slightly bearish.
📈 My plan
I’m not buying blindly. I want:
Sweep → M15 CHOCH/BOS → H1 confirmation
🎯 1.6130–1.6150
🎯 1.6200–1.6220
🎯 Breakout → 1.6270+
Below 1.6000, I’ll monitor the deeper 1.5900–1.5935 demand.
Bias: Neutral → Bullish with confirmation.
Full analysis on TradingView 👇
📊 COT
🇪🇺 EUR Net: -58K
🇨🇦 CAD Net: -179K
Relative positioning still favours EUR over CAD.
👥 Sentiment
84% LONG vs 16% SHORT → strong contrarian warning.
📅 Seasonality
Neutral / slightly bearish.
📈 My plan
I’m not buying blindly. I want:
Sweep → M15 CHOCH/BOS → H1 confirmation
🎯 1.6130–1.6150
🎯 1.6200–1.6220
🎯 Breakout → 1.6270+
Below 1.6000, I’ll monitor the deeper 1.5900–1.5935 demand.
Bias: Neutral → Bullish with confirmation.
Full analysis on TradingView 👇
🚨 NQ — PRE-LONDON OUTLOOK
NQ is trading back toward the 29,920–29,940 liquidity / FVG area after holding the H1 demand below.
For London, I’m watching two scenarios:
🔼 Sweep of buy-side liquidity above 29,930 → rejection could send price back toward 29,850 / 29,790.
🔽 If price first retraces into 29,790–29,850 and holds, I’ll look for continuation toward 29,930 and potentially PDH 30,001.
NQ is trading back toward the 29,920–29,940 liquidity / FVG area after holding the H1 demand below.
For London, I’m watching two scenarios:
🔼 Sweep of buy-side liquidity above 29,930 → rejection could send price back toward 29,850 / 29,790.
🔽 If price first retraces into 29,790–29,850 and holds, I’ll look for continuation toward 29,930 and potentially PDH 30,001.
NQ SHORT | NY PM SESSION 🇺🇸📉
Yesterday’s trade was a bit unusual 😂 but the setup itself was really clean.
I waited for the H1 Buy-Side Liquidity sweep, followed by the M1 pullback and confirmations:
H1 Liquidity Sweep → M1 OB Break → M1 Bearish Breaker + iFVG + FVG → SHORT.
Since this was the first trade of my new Challenge and I was away from the office, I decided to keep the risk low at 0.25% instead of my usual max 0.50%.
Then came a small execution mistake 😅: instead of placing the Sell Limit on the Micro NQ, I placed it on the Mini NQ.
When I checked TradingView again, the trade was around +7 points, but my position size was basically 10x larger than planned. As soon as I noticed it, I closed the position immediately.
Result: +0.75% on the Challenge ✅
However the setup played out perfectly afterwards. Price quickly reached my BE level and eventually traded all the way down to TP near the market close.
Yesterday’s trade was a bit unusual 😂 but the setup itself was really clean.
I waited for the H1 Buy-Side Liquidity sweep, followed by the M1 pullback and confirmations:
H1 Liquidity Sweep → M1 OB Break → M1 Bearish Breaker + iFVG + FVG → SHORT.
Since this was the first trade of my new Challenge and I was away from the office, I decided to keep the risk low at 0.25% instead of my usual max 0.50%.
Then came a small execution mistake 😅: instead of placing the Sell Limit on the Micro NQ, I placed it on the Mini NQ.
When I checked TradingView again, the trade was around +7 points, but my position size was basically 10x larger than planned. As soon as I noticed it, I closed the position immediately.
Result: +0.75% on the Challenge ✅
However the setup played out perfectly afterwards. Price quickly reached my BE level and eventually traded all the way down to TP near the market close.
📊 WEEKLY RECAP | AUGUST 10–14, 2026
🔹 NQ — APEX PROP
Only 1 trade executed this week:
+0.75% ✅ Current progress: +0.75% / +6% target
🔹 FUNDEDNEXT PROP
Currently in Phase 2:
Performance: BE Target: +5% Trades executed this week: 0
No trades were taken this week as the market didn't provide setups that fully matched my trading plan.
One week at a time. One trade at a time!
🔹 NQ — APEX PROP
Only 1 trade executed this week:
+0.75% ✅ Current progress: +0.75% / +6% target
🔹 FUNDEDNEXT PROP
Currently in Phase 2:
Performance: BE Target: +5% Trades executed this week: 0
No trades were taken this week as the market didn't provide setups that fully matched my trading plan.
One week at a time. One trade at a time!
📊 MACRO RECAP | AUG 10–14
US CPI came in relatively soft:
🇺🇸 CPI: +0.1% MoM | +3.4% YoY
🇺🇸 Core CPI: +0.2% MoM | +2.5% YoY
Both headline and core inflation slowed on a yearly basis, with Core CPI moving from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Then PPI added another softer signal:
• Core PPI: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• PPI: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected
So from my perspective, last week slightly strengthened the US disinflation narrative.
Outside the US:
🇬🇧 UK GDP surprised higher at +0.3% MoM
🇦🇺 RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
US CPI came in relatively soft:
🇺🇸 CPI: +0.1% MoM | +3.4% YoY
🇺🇸 Core CPI: +0.2% MoM | +2.5% YoY
Both headline and core inflation slowed on a yearly basis, with Core CPI moving from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Then PPI added another softer signal:
• Core PPI: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• PPI: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected
So from my perspective, last week slightly strengthened the US disinflation narrative.
Outside the US:
🇬🇧 UK GDP surprised higher at +0.3% MoM
🇦🇺 RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
WEEK AHEAD | AUG 17–21
🇨🇦 Canada CPI
🇬🇧 UK CPI + Labour Data
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
🇦🇺 Australian Employment
For me, the FOMC Minutes are the key event.
After softer CPI and PPI, I want to see whether the Fed's internal discussion supports the more dovish interpretation the market took from last week's data or pushes back against it.
UK CPI is another one to watch closely, with 2.9% YoY expected vs 2.6% previously.
🇨🇦 Canada CPI
🇬🇧 UK CPI + Labour Data
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
🇦🇺 Australian Employment
For me, the FOMC Minutes are the key event.
After softer CPI and PPI, I want to see whether the Fed's internal discussion supports the more dovish interpretation the market took from last week's data or pushes back against it.
UK CPI is another one to watch closely, with 2.9% YoY expected vs 2.6% previously.
🇨🇦 CANADA CPI: INFLATION COMES IN ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July, above the 2.9% forecast and the previous 2.8% reading. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.5%.
The headline figure was mainly driven by gasoline prices, which surged 25.7% year over year. Underlying inflation remained more contained:
• CPI Median: 2.0%
• CPI Trim: 1.9%
• CPI excluding gasoline: 2.2%
For me this report is moderately positive for the CAD. Higher-than-expected inflation reduces the room for the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish stance. However, I would not describe the report as strongly hawkish. Most of the acceleration came from energy prices, while underlying inflation remains close to the Bank of Canada’s target.
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July, above the 2.9% forecast and the previous 2.8% reading. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.5%.
The headline figure was mainly driven by gasoline prices, which surged 25.7% year over year. Underlying inflation remained more contained:
• CPI Median: 2.0%
• CPI Trim: 1.9%
• CPI excluding gasoline: 2.2%
For me this report is moderately positive for the CAD. Higher-than-expected inflation reduces the room for the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish stance. However, I would not describe the report as strongly hawkish. Most of the acceleration came from energy prices, while underlying inflation remains close to the Bank of Canada’s target.
📊 NQ — Missed Trade | PM Session
Yesterday, I correctly identified and marked this long setup on NQ:
1️⃣ Sell-side liquidity sweep
2️⃣ Formation of an M1 breaker
3️⃣ Price acceptance above the high of the candle that created the breaker
4️⃣ Retest of the M1 breaker for the entry
5️⃣ Stop loss below the breaker low
6️⃣ Target at the 50% level of the M15 iFVG above
The analysis played out perfectly and price reached the target, but I didn’t execute the trade due to a lack of clarity and focus at that moment.
The market read was correct, no regrets: review it, learn from it and improve.🧠
Ready for another day!
Yesterday, I correctly identified and marked this long setup on NQ:
1️⃣ Sell-side liquidity sweep
2️⃣ Formation of an M1 breaker
3️⃣ Price acceptance above the high of the candle that created the breaker
4️⃣ Retest of the M1 breaker for the entry
5️⃣ Stop loss below the breaker low
6️⃣ Target at the 50% level of the M15 iFVG above
The analysis played out perfectly and price reached the target, but I didn’t execute the trade due to a lack of clarity and focus at that moment.
The market read was correct, no regrets: review it, learn from it and improve.🧠
Ready for another day!
EURAUD Analysis
My bias remains bearish after the break of the ascending trendline and the formation of lower highs below the main descending resistance.
I’m not chasing the move into Daily demand. I’ll wait for a pullback toward:
📍 1.6350–1.6400
📍 1.6470–1.6505
My main targets are 1.6250 and 1.6200–1.6190.
With 80% of retail traders positioned long, sentiment also supports my bearish outlook. COT and seasonality remain mixed, so I will wait for H1/H4 confirmation.
EURAUD analysis on TradingView
My bias remains bearish after the break of the ascending trendline and the formation of lower highs below the main descending resistance.
I’m not chasing the move into Daily demand. I’ll wait for a pullback toward:
📍 1.6350–1.6400
📍 1.6470–1.6505
My main targets are 1.6250 and 1.6200–1.6190.
With 80% of retail traders positioned long, sentiment also supports my bearish outlook. COT and seasonality remain mixed, so I will wait for H1/H4 confirmation.
EURAUD analysis on TradingView
TODAY’S NQ PM SESSION
After M15 sell-side liquidity was taken, I waited for an M1 breaker to form and entered on the retest.
Thirty minutes later, price was still moving around my breakeven level. With the cash session close approaching, I manually closed the position even though the setup had not been invalidated.
That was the mistake.
The trade later came very close to the target before returning to breakeven during the final 15 minutes of volatility. The TP may have been slightly ambitious due to the M15 order block above, but the outcome is not the main point.
Once a valid setup is executed, the trade should be managed according to the original plan: TP, breakeven or natural SL without emotional interference.
ALWAYS FOLLOW THE PLAN.
After M15 sell-side liquidity was taken, I waited for an M1 breaker to form and entered on the retest.
Thirty minutes later, price was still moving around my breakeven level. With the cash session close approaching, I manually closed the position even though the setup had not been invalidated.
That was the mistake.
The trade later came very close to the target before returning to breakeven during the final 15 minutes of volatility. The TP may have been slightly ambitious due to the M15 order block above, but the outcome is not the main point.
Once a valid setup is executed, the trade should be managed according to the original plan: TP, breakeven or natural SL without emotional interference.
ALWAYS FOLLOW THE PLAN.
📉 USD/CAD ANALYSIS
📊 COT — CAD
Non-Commercials remain extremely net short CAD, but the latest report shows something interesting:
Longs: -660
Shorts: -6,393
Speculators are reducing CAD shorts significantly faster than longs.
→ Potential CAD short covering.
🇺🇸 COT — USD
The US Dollar remains net long, but speculative bullish positioning has also decreased marginally.
RETAIL SENTIMENT
63% LONG USD/CAD
37% SHORT
📉 PRICE ACTION
Lower Highs + Lower Lows remain intact after the rejection from higher-timeframe supply.
My main retracement area is:
🎯 1.3900–1.3930
Potential downside levels:
1.3840 → 1.3770 → 1.3718
The complete analysis on Tradingview
📊 COT — CAD
Non-Commercials remain extremely net short CAD, but the latest report shows something interesting:
Longs: -660
Shorts: -6,393
Speculators are reducing CAD shorts significantly faster than longs.
→ Potential CAD short covering.
🇺🇸 COT — USD
The US Dollar remains net long, but speculative bullish positioning has also decreased marginally.
RETAIL SENTIMENT
63% LONG USD/CAD
37% SHORT
📉 PRICE ACTION
Lower Highs + Lower Lows remain intact after the rejection from higher-timeframe supply.
My main retracement area is:
🎯 1.3900–1.3930
Potential downside levels:
1.3840 → 1.3770 → 1.3718
The complete analysis on Tradingview
🚨 GBP/USD ANALYSIS
GBP/USD remains bullish from a structural perspective, but price is now trading inside the 1.3560–1.3650 resistance area, so I prefer waiting for a better entry.
Retail sentiment remains particularly interesting: 70% of traders are SHORT, providing a strong contrarian element while the underlying structure remains bullish.
COT data is more mixed. Large speculators remain net short GBP and net long USD, but the latest changes show a slight improvement for GBP and some reduction in USD long exposure.
Seasonality remains bearish for August, which gives me another reason to stay patient.
🎯 Main area I’m watching: 1.3505–1.3550
If GBP/USD pulls back into this zone and buyers confirm, I’ll start looking for potential continuation towards:
1.3640–1.3660 → 1.3700 → 1.3750+
Below 1.3500, I would reassess the setup.
GBP/USD remains bullish from a structural perspective, but price is now trading inside the 1.3560–1.3650 resistance area, so I prefer waiting for a better entry.
Retail sentiment remains particularly interesting: 70% of traders are SHORT, providing a strong contrarian element while the underlying structure remains bullish.
COT data is more mixed. Large speculators remain net short GBP and net long USD, but the latest changes show a slight improvement for GBP and some reduction in USD long exposure.
Seasonality remains bearish for August, which gives me another reason to stay patient.
🎯 Main area I’m watching: 1.3505–1.3550
If GBP/USD pulls back into this zone and buyers confirm, I’ll start looking for potential continuation towards:
1.3640–1.3660 → 1.3700 → 1.3750+
Below 1.3500, I would reassess the setup.
EUR/USD BREAKOUT CONFIRMED: IS 1.1800 NEXT? 📈
EUR/USD has broken the descending trendline and continues to develop a bullish structure.
My preferred scenario is a pullback toward 1.1635–1.1640, followed by bullish confirmation and continuation toward 1.1750 and potentially 1.1790–1.1800.
The COT report remains net bearish on the euro, although positioning improved slightly this week.
Meanwhile, USD longs declined and 76% of retail traders remain short EUR/USD, providing an interesting contrarian signal in favour of further upside.
My bias remains bullish above 1.1635. A move below 1.1540 would weaken the setup, while 1.1495 represents the main invalidation level.
The complete analysis and chart are now available on TradingView
EUR/USD has broken the descending trendline and continues to develop a bullish structure.
My preferred scenario is a pullback toward 1.1635–1.1640, followed by bullish confirmation and continuation toward 1.1750 and potentially 1.1790–1.1800.
The COT report remains net bearish on the euro, although positioning improved slightly this week.
Meanwhile, USD longs declined and 76% of retail traders remain short EUR/USD, providing an interesting contrarian signal in favour of further upside.
My bias remains bullish above 1.1635. A move below 1.1540 would weaken the setup, while 1.1495 represents the main invalidation level.
The complete analysis and chart are now available on TradingView
📊 GBP/JPY: 90% OF RETAIL TRADERS ARE SHORT
GBP/JPY swept the liquidity below the previous lows and then developed a strong bullish structure.
🔹 Retail sentiment: 90% short and only 10% long
🔹 COT report: speculative positioning deteriorated significantly on the JPY side
🔹 Technical structure: higher highs and higher lows from the 211.00 area
🔹 Short-squeeze potential above the current resistance levels
⚠️ August seasonality remains predominantly negative, while price is already trading inside the 216.50–219.50 resistance zone.
My preferred setup would be a pullback toward 216.00 or 214.80–215.20, followed by bullish confirmation across the M15 and H1 timeframes.
🎯 Levels to watch: 217.80 – 218.60 – 219.50
GBP/JPY swept the liquidity below the previous lows and then developed a strong bullish structure.
🔹 Retail sentiment: 90% short and only 10% long
🔹 COT report: speculative positioning deteriorated significantly on the JPY side
🔹 Technical structure: higher highs and higher lows from the 211.00 area
🔹 Short-squeeze potential above the current resistance levels
⚠️ August seasonality remains predominantly negative, while price is already trading inside the 216.50–219.50 resistance zone.
My preferred setup would be a pullback toward 216.00 or 214.80–215.20, followed by bullish confirmation across the M15 and H1 timeframes.
🎯 Levels to watch: 217.80 – 218.60 – 219.50
📊 Today's Watchlist
🟢 EUR/AUD – Long
🔴 GBP/USD - Short
🟢 CAD/JPY - Long
🔴 AUD/JPY - Short
🔴 NZD/CHF - Short
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🟢 EUR/AUD – Long
🔴 GBP/USD - Short
🟢 CAD/JPY - Long
🔴 AUD/JPY - Short
🔴 NZD/CHF - Short
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.