Lost my Topstep challenge today.
Not because of the strategy. Because I stopped following my own rules. I recovered almost $1,000, then increased my size trying to make even more. That decision cost me the account.
Starting a new challenge with Apex Trader Funding, which integrates directly with TradingView and fits my workflow much better.
Not because of the strategy. Because I stopped following my own rules. I recovered almost $1,000, then increased my size trying to make even more. That decision cost me the account.
Starting a new challenge with Apex Trader Funding, which integrates directly with TradingView and fits my workflow much better.
CADCHF: 71% of Retail Traders Are LONG
CADCHF is entering my bearish watchlist for the coming sessions.
Several factors are currently aligning:
📊 COT: speculative positioning remains significantly more bearish on CAD than CHF.
📅 Seasonality: 4 out of 5 major historical lookbacks show negative CAD performance during August.
👥 Retail Sentiment: approximately 71% of traders are LONG CADCHF.
📉 Price Action: CADCHF is trading near the recent highs and inside my 0.5795–0.5820 premium area.
My primary bearish target is around 0.5705, with 0.5670–0.5650 becoming relevant if downside momentum expands.
But I'm not blindly shorting resistance.
I want the market to confirm the thesis through rejection, bearish displacement and a lower-timeframe structural shift.
👉 Full CADCHF analysis, COT data, seasonality and key levels on TradingView.
CADCHF is entering my bearish watchlist for the coming sessions.
Several factors are currently aligning:
📊 COT: speculative positioning remains significantly more bearish on CAD than CHF.
📅 Seasonality: 4 out of 5 major historical lookbacks show negative CAD performance during August.
👥 Retail Sentiment: approximately 71% of traders are LONG CADCHF.
📉 Price Action: CADCHF is trading near the recent highs and inside my 0.5795–0.5820 premium area.
My primary bearish target is around 0.5705, with 0.5670–0.5650 becoming relevant if downside momentum expands.
But I'm not blindly shorting resistance.
I want the market to confirm the thesis through rejection, bearish displacement and a lower-timeframe structural shift.
👉 Full CADCHF analysis, COT data, seasonality and key levels on TradingView.
📊 WEEKLY MACRO RECAP | AUG 3–7
🇺🇸 NFP: -23K vs +85K expected
🇺🇸 Unemployment: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
The headline unemployment rate looked resilient, but underneath the surface the picture was weaker.
May + June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K, while labor force participation dropped to 61.4%.
The message is becoming clearer: the US labor market is cooling.
Next week the focus shifts from employment to inflation.
Key events | Aug 10–14
🇦🇺 Tuesday — RBA Rate Decision
🇺🇸 Wednesday — CPI / Core CPI
🇬🇧 Thursday — UK GDP
🇺🇸 Thursday — PPI / Core PPI
After a weak jobs report, CPI is now the next major test for the Fed narrative.
Weak inflation → more dovish expectations.
Hot inflation → potential repricing.
🇺🇸 NFP: -23K vs +85K expected
🇺🇸 Unemployment: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
The headline unemployment rate looked resilient, but underneath the surface the picture was weaker.
May + June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K, while labor force participation dropped to 61.4%.
The message is becoming clearer: the US labor market is cooling.
Next week the focus shifts from employment to inflation.
Key events | Aug 10–14
🇦🇺 Tuesday — RBA Rate Decision
🇺🇸 Wednesday — CPI / Core CPI
🇬🇧 Thursday — UK GDP
🇺🇸 Thursday — PPI / Core PPI
After a weak jobs report, CPI is now the next major test for the Fed narrative.
Weak inflation → more dovish expectations.
Hot inflation → potential repricing.
📊 WEEKLY COT RECAP | AUG 4
Latest speculative positioning shows some interesting shifts:
🇺🇸 USD — Still strongly net long, but overall participation declined. Bullish bias remains.
🇪🇺 EUR — Still net short, but significant short covering suggests bearish conviction is easing.
🇬🇧 GBP — Bearish positioning remains, although shorts were reduced during the week.
🇯🇵 JPY — Biggest shift of the week!
Strong increase in longs combined with aggressive short covering → clear bullish repositioning.
🇨🇭 CHF — Remains heavily net short. Bearish positioning unchanged.
🇦🇺 AUD — Still net short, but longs increased. Positioning is gradually improving.
🇳🇿 NZD — Remains strongly bearish despite some short covering.
🇨🇦 CAD — One of the weakest currencies in positioning terms. Speculators remain heavily net short.
📈 NASDAQ — Significant increase in speculative shorts (+20.5K). Positioning turned more defensive.
🥇 GOLD — Strong bullish positioning: longs increased while shorts were reduced.
Key COT shifts:
🟢 JPY & Gold → bullish
🟡 EUR/GBP → bearish positioning easing
🔴 CAD/NZD → remain weak
⚠️ Nasdaq → shorts building
Latest speculative positioning shows some interesting shifts:
🇺🇸 USD — Still strongly net long, but overall participation declined. Bullish bias remains.
🇪🇺 EUR — Still net short, but significant short covering suggests bearish conviction is easing.
🇬🇧 GBP — Bearish positioning remains, although shorts were reduced during the week.
🇯🇵 JPY — Biggest shift of the week!
Strong increase in longs combined with aggressive short covering → clear bullish repositioning.
🇨🇭 CHF — Remains heavily net short. Bearish positioning unchanged.
🇦🇺 AUD — Still net short, but longs increased. Positioning is gradually improving.
🇳🇿 NZD — Remains strongly bearish despite some short covering.
🇨🇦 CAD — One of the weakest currencies in positioning terms. Speculators remain heavily net short.
📈 NASDAQ — Significant increase in speculative shorts (+20.5K). Positioning turned more defensive.
🥇 GOLD — Strong bullish positioning: longs increased while shorts were reduced.
Key COT shifts:
🟢 JPY & Gold → bullish
🟡 EUR/GBP → bearish positioning easing
🔴 CAD/NZD → remain weak
⚠️ Nasdaq → shorts building
🥇 GOLD | Bullish, but I’m not chasing the move
Gold reacted strongly from the 4,000 Weekly demand and is now approaching the key 4,400–4,600 decision area.
COT remains strongly bullish, retail traders are still predominantly short and August seasonality continues to support the upside.
However, after this expansion, I prefer to wait.
Acceptance above 4,400–4,450 → 4,600 / 4,800
Rejection + loss of 4,300 → 4,100 / 4,000
My HTF bias remains bullish, but 4,400–4,600 will determine the next move.
📊 Full analysis & chart on TradingView
Gold reacted strongly from the 4,000 Weekly demand and is now approaching the key 4,400–4,600 decision area.
COT remains strongly bullish, retail traders are still predominantly short and August seasonality continues to support the upside.
However, after this expansion, I prefer to wait.
Acceptance above 4,400–4,450 → 4,600 / 4,800
Rejection + loss of 4,300 → 4,100 / 4,000
My HTF bias remains bullish, but 4,400–4,600 will determine the next move.
📊 Full analysis & chart on TradingView
📊 Today's Watchlist
🔴 CAD/CHF – Short
🟢 GBP/CHF - Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🔴 CAD/CHF – Short
🟢 GBP/CHF - Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
GBP/USD — One Final Push Before the Sell-Off? 👀
My bias remains BEARISH:
🔴 GBP COT: -57.8K
🟢 USD COT: +22.5K
📉 August seasonality: Bearish
⚠️ Retail: 72% SHORT
The heavy retail short positioning makes me cautious about entering now. I’m watching for a potential squeeze toward 1.3550–1.3640 before looking for bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
My bias remains BEARISH:
🔴 GBP COT: -57.8K
🟢 USD COT: +22.5K
📉 August seasonality: Bearish
⚠️ Retail: 72% SHORT
The heavy retail short positioning makes me cautious about entering now. I’m watching for a potential squeeze toward 1.3550–1.3640 before looking for bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
🇺🇸 NQ — PRE-LONDON SESSION
NQ reacted strongly from PDL / H1 demand, leaving multiple bullish FVGs below current price.
For London, I’m watching 29,796–29,746 as the main support area. As long as buyers defend this zone, I see potential for price to continue higher and attack the liquidity above.
🎯 Upside targets:
29,847 → 29,886/29,908 → 29,935
⚠️ A loss of 29,746 would shift my attention back toward PDL 29,718 and the sell-side liquidity below.
NQ reacted strongly from PDL / H1 demand, leaving multiple bullish FVGs below current price.
For London, I’m watching 29,796–29,746 as the main support area. As long as buyers defend this zone, I see potential for price to continue higher and attack the liquidity above.
🎯 Upside targets:
29,847 → 29,886/29,908 → 29,935
⚠️ A loss of 29,746 would shift my attention back toward PDL 29,718 and the sell-side liquidity below.
EUR/CAD is testing the key 1.6000–1.6070 demand zone.
📊 COT
🇪🇺 EUR Net: -58K
🇨🇦 CAD Net: -179K
Relative positioning still favours EUR over CAD.
👥 Sentiment
84% LONG vs 16% SHORT → strong contrarian warning.
📅 Seasonality
Neutral / slightly bearish.
📈 My plan
I’m not buying blindly. I want:
Sweep → M15 CHOCH/BOS → H1 confirmation
🎯 1.6130–1.6150
🎯 1.6200–1.6220
🎯 Breakout → 1.6270+
Below 1.6000, I’ll monitor the deeper 1.5900–1.5935 demand.
Bias: Neutral → Bullish with confirmation.
Full analysis on TradingView 👇
📊 COT
🇪🇺 EUR Net: -58K
🇨🇦 CAD Net: -179K
Relative positioning still favours EUR over CAD.
👥 Sentiment
84% LONG vs 16% SHORT → strong contrarian warning.
📅 Seasonality
Neutral / slightly bearish.
📈 My plan
I’m not buying blindly. I want:
Sweep → M15 CHOCH/BOS → H1 confirmation
🎯 1.6130–1.6150
🎯 1.6200–1.6220
🎯 Breakout → 1.6270+
Below 1.6000, I’ll monitor the deeper 1.5900–1.5935 demand.
Bias: Neutral → Bullish with confirmation.
Full analysis on TradingView 👇
🚨 NQ — PRE-LONDON OUTLOOK
NQ is trading back toward the 29,920–29,940 liquidity / FVG area after holding the H1 demand below.
For London, I’m watching two scenarios:
🔼 Sweep of buy-side liquidity above 29,930 → rejection could send price back toward 29,850 / 29,790.
🔽 If price first retraces into 29,790–29,850 and holds, I’ll look for continuation toward 29,930 and potentially PDH 30,001.
NQ is trading back toward the 29,920–29,940 liquidity / FVG area after holding the H1 demand below.
For London, I’m watching two scenarios:
🔼 Sweep of buy-side liquidity above 29,930 → rejection could send price back toward 29,850 / 29,790.
🔽 If price first retraces into 29,790–29,850 and holds, I’ll look for continuation toward 29,930 and potentially PDH 30,001.
NQ SHORT | NY PM SESSION 🇺🇸📉
Yesterday’s trade was a bit unusual 😂 but the setup itself was really clean.
I waited for the H1 Buy-Side Liquidity sweep, followed by the M1 pullback and confirmations:
H1 Liquidity Sweep → M1 OB Break → M1 Bearish Breaker + iFVG + FVG → SHORT.
Since this was the first trade of my new Challenge and I was away from the office, I decided to keep the risk low at 0.25% instead of my usual max 0.50%.
Then came a small execution mistake 😅: instead of placing the Sell Limit on the Micro NQ, I placed it on the Mini NQ.
When I checked TradingView again, the trade was around +7 points, but my position size was basically 10x larger than planned. As soon as I noticed it, I closed the position immediately.
Result: +0.75% on the Challenge ✅
However the setup played out perfectly afterwards. Price quickly reached my BE level and eventually traded all the way down to TP near the market close.
Yesterday’s trade was a bit unusual 😂 but the setup itself was really clean.
I waited for the H1 Buy-Side Liquidity sweep, followed by the M1 pullback and confirmations:
H1 Liquidity Sweep → M1 OB Break → M1 Bearish Breaker + iFVG + FVG → SHORT.
Since this was the first trade of my new Challenge and I was away from the office, I decided to keep the risk low at 0.25% instead of my usual max 0.50%.
Then came a small execution mistake 😅: instead of placing the Sell Limit on the Micro NQ, I placed it on the Mini NQ.
When I checked TradingView again, the trade was around +7 points, but my position size was basically 10x larger than planned. As soon as I noticed it, I closed the position immediately.
Result: +0.75% on the Challenge ✅
However the setup played out perfectly afterwards. Price quickly reached my BE level and eventually traded all the way down to TP near the market close.
📊 WEEKLY RECAP | AUGUST 10–14, 2026
🔹 NQ — APEX PROP
Only 1 trade executed this week:
+0.75% ✅ Current progress: +0.75% / +6% target
🔹 FUNDEDNEXT PROP
Currently in Phase 2:
Performance: BE Target: +5% Trades executed this week: 0
No trades were taken this week as the market didn't provide setups that fully matched my trading plan.
One week at a time. One trade at a time!
🔹 NQ — APEX PROP
Only 1 trade executed this week:
+0.75% ✅ Current progress: +0.75% / +6% target
🔹 FUNDEDNEXT PROP
Currently in Phase 2:
Performance: BE Target: +5% Trades executed this week: 0
No trades were taken this week as the market didn't provide setups that fully matched my trading plan.
One week at a time. One trade at a time!
📊 MACRO RECAP | AUG 10–14
US CPI came in relatively soft:
🇺🇸 CPI: +0.1% MoM | +3.4% YoY
🇺🇸 Core CPI: +0.2% MoM | +2.5% YoY
Both headline and core inflation slowed on a yearly basis, with Core CPI moving from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Then PPI added another softer signal:
• Core PPI: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• PPI: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected
So from my perspective, last week slightly strengthened the US disinflation narrative.
Outside the US:
🇬🇧 UK GDP surprised higher at +0.3% MoM
🇦🇺 RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
US CPI came in relatively soft:
🇺🇸 CPI: +0.1% MoM | +3.4% YoY
🇺🇸 Core CPI: +0.2% MoM | +2.5% YoY
Both headline and core inflation slowed on a yearly basis, with Core CPI moving from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Then PPI added another softer signal:
• Core PPI: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected
• PPI: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected
So from my perspective, last week slightly strengthened the US disinflation narrative.
Outside the US:
🇬🇧 UK GDP surprised higher at +0.3% MoM
🇦🇺 RBA kept rates unchanged at 4.35%
WEEK AHEAD | AUG 17–21
🇨🇦 Canada CPI
🇬🇧 UK CPI + Labour Data
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
🇦🇺 Australian Employment
For me, the FOMC Minutes are the key event.
After softer CPI and PPI, I want to see whether the Fed's internal discussion supports the more dovish interpretation the market took from last week's data or pushes back against it.
UK CPI is another one to watch closely, with 2.9% YoY expected vs 2.6% previously.
🇨🇦 Canada CPI
🇬🇧 UK CPI + Labour Data
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
🇦🇺 Australian Employment
For me, the FOMC Minutes are the key event.
After softer CPI and PPI, I want to see whether the Fed's internal discussion supports the more dovish interpretation the market took from last week's data or pushes back against it.
UK CPI is another one to watch closely, with 2.9% YoY expected vs 2.6% previously.
🇨🇦 CANADA CPI: INFLATION COMES IN ABOVE EXPECTATIONS
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July, above the 2.9% forecast and the previous 2.8% reading. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.5%.
The headline figure was mainly driven by gasoline prices, which surged 25.7% year over year. Underlying inflation remained more contained:
• CPI Median: 2.0%
• CPI Trim: 1.9%
• CPI excluding gasoline: 2.2%
For me this report is moderately positive for the CAD. Higher-than-expected inflation reduces the room for the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish stance. However, I would not describe the report as strongly hawkish. Most of the acceleration came from energy prices, while underlying inflation remains close to the Bank of Canada’s target.
Canada’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.0% in July, above the 2.9% forecast and the previous 2.8% reading. On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.5%.
The headline figure was mainly driven by gasoline prices, which surged 25.7% year over year. Underlying inflation remained more contained:
• CPI Median: 2.0%
• CPI Trim: 1.9%
• CPI excluding gasoline: 2.2%
For me this report is moderately positive for the CAD. Higher-than-expected inflation reduces the room for the Bank of Canada to adopt a more dovish stance. However, I would not describe the report as strongly hawkish. Most of the acceleration came from energy prices, while underlying inflation remains close to the Bank of Canada’s target.