Macro Outlook | Aug 3 – Aug 7
The first week of August will be lighter, but still includes several market-moving events.
🇺🇸 Monday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇳🇿 Tuesday
• Employment Change
• Unemployment Rate
🇨🇦🇺🇸 Friday
• Canadian Employment Report
• US Average Hourly Earnings
• US Non-Farm Payrolls
• US Unemployment Rate
NFP Friday will likely be the main volatility event of the week and could reshape expectations around the Fed's next policy decision.
The first week of August will be lighter, but still includes several market-moving events.
🇺🇸 Monday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇳🇿 Tuesday
• Employment Change
• Unemployment Rate
🇨🇦🇺🇸 Friday
• Canadian Employment Report
• US Average Hourly Earnings
• US Non-Farm Payrolls
• US Unemployment Rate
NFP Friday will likely be the main volatility event of the week and could reshape expectations around the Fed's next policy decision.
📊 Weekly COT Report | Jul 28, 2026
🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY)
Institutional traders continue adding to long exposure, reinforcing the broader bullish USD narrative despite weaker GDP and Core PCE data.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish USD
🇪🇺 Euro
Large speculators remain net short EUR, although this week's increase in both long and short positioning suggests growing uncertainty rather than conviction.
Bias: 🔴 Slightly Bearish EUR
🇬🇧 British Pound
Funds remain heavily net short GBP. Despite the BoE maintaining rates, institutional positioning still favors additional downside.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish GBP
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar
Commercials continue accumulating long exposure while speculative positioning remains heavily short CAD.
With Canadian employment data scheduled next Friday, CAD pairs could experience increased volatility.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish CAD
🇦🇺 Australian Dollar
Speculators increased short exposure again following another softer inflation report.
Lower inflation reduces pressure on the RBA to tighten further.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish AUD
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar
NZD remains one of the weakest currencies in the report, with speculative shorts still dominating.
Employment data next week could become an important catalyst.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish NZD
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen
Large traders continue holding significant net short positions despite the BoJ gradually normalizing policy.
The Yen remains structurally weak, although positioning has become increasingly crowded.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish JPY (watch for potential short squeeze)
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc
CHF positioning remains moderately bearish, with institutions still favoring the Dollar over traditional safe havens.
Bias: 🔴 Mildly Bearish CHF
📈 Nasdaq (NQ)
Speculative accounts added fresh long positions while open interest continued rising.
Institutions remain constructive on US equities despite expectations for slower economic growth.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish Nasdaq
🥇 Gold
Gold experienced one of the largest reductions in speculative long positioning seen in recent weeks.
Although institutions remain net long overall, profit-taking has clearly increased following the recent rally.
Bias: 🟡 Bullish longer-term, but short-term positioning has weakened.
🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY)
Institutional traders continue adding to long exposure, reinforcing the broader bullish USD narrative despite weaker GDP and Core PCE data.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish USD
🇪🇺 Euro
Large speculators remain net short EUR, although this week's increase in both long and short positioning suggests growing uncertainty rather than conviction.
Bias: 🔴 Slightly Bearish EUR
🇬🇧 British Pound
Funds remain heavily net short GBP. Despite the BoE maintaining rates, institutional positioning still favors additional downside.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish GBP
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar
Commercials continue accumulating long exposure while speculative positioning remains heavily short CAD.
With Canadian employment data scheduled next Friday, CAD pairs could experience increased volatility.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish CAD
🇦🇺 Australian Dollar
Speculators increased short exposure again following another softer inflation report.
Lower inflation reduces pressure on the RBA to tighten further.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish AUD
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar
NZD remains one of the weakest currencies in the report, with speculative shorts still dominating.
Employment data next week could become an important catalyst.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish NZD
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen
Large traders continue holding significant net short positions despite the BoJ gradually normalizing policy.
The Yen remains structurally weak, although positioning has become increasingly crowded.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish JPY (watch for potential short squeeze)
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc
CHF positioning remains moderately bearish, with institutions still favoring the Dollar over traditional safe havens.
Bias: 🔴 Mildly Bearish CHF
📈 Nasdaq (NQ)
Speculative accounts added fresh long positions while open interest continued rising.
Institutions remain constructive on US equities despite expectations for slower economic growth.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish Nasdaq
🥇 Gold
Gold experienced one of the largest reductions in speculative long positioning seen in recent weeks.
Although institutions remain net long overall, profit-taking has clearly increased following the recent rally.
Bias: 🟡 Bullish longer-term, but short-term positioning has weakened.
CHFJPY has reached one of the most important HTF demand zones on my chart.
After an aggressive sell-off, I'm not interested in chasing shorts here.
Instead, I'm waiting for price confirmation and a potential liquidity grab before making any decision.
In today's analysis I also break down:
✅ HTF structure
✅ COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ Seasonality
✅ My trading plan
👇 Full analysis available on TradingView.
After an aggressive sell-off, I'm not interested in chasing shorts here.
Instead, I'm waiting for price confirmation and a potential liquidity grab before making any decision.
In today's analysis I also break down:
✅ HTF structure
✅ COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ Seasonality
✅ My trading plan
👇 Full analysis available on TradingView.
📊 Today's Watchlist
🟢 CHFJPY – Long
🟢 CADJPY – Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🟢 CHFJPY – Long
🟢 CADJPY – Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
NQ NY PM recap 📉
2 short trades today, both executed on an M1 breaker retest.
Trade 1
❌ -0.30%
Trade 2
➖ Break Even (0.30% risk / 1.0% target)
HTF bias remained bearish:
• Previous Weekly High swept
• Price traded into an H1 bearish FVG
After the second entry, price immediately accepted below the previous low, confirming the shift in structure. I moved my stop to BE to protect capital.
Price came back, tagged my entry, and then continued to my original target.
Maybe I was too aggressive moving to BE... maybe not.
Right now I'm not trying to maximize profits. I'm building statistics on my M1 execution and management.
2 short trades today, both executed on an M1 breaker retest.
Trade 1
❌ -0.30%
Trade 2
➖ Break Even (0.30% risk / 1.0% target)
HTF bias remained bearish:
• Previous Weekly High swept
• Price traded into an H1 bearish FVG
After the second entry, price immediately accepted below the previous low, confirming the shift in structure. I moved my stop to BE to protect capital.
Price came back, tagged my entry, and then continued to my original target.
Maybe I was too aggressive moving to BE... maybe not.
Right now I'm not trying to maximize profits. I'm building statistics on my M1 execution and management.
📊 EUR/USD Market Outlook
Is this the beginning of a bullish reversal... or just another bull trap?
In today's analysis I break down:
✅ Daily market structure
✅ EUR & USD COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ August seasonality
✅ The key resistance zone I'm watching for potential short opportunities.
Read the full TradingView analysis
Is this the beginning of a bullish reversal... or just another bull trap?
In today's analysis I break down:
✅ Daily market structure
✅ EUR & USD COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ August seasonality
✅ The key resistance zone I'm watching for potential short opportunities.
Read the full TradingView analysis
NQ Recap | August 4, 2026 📉
Daily PnL: -1.55%
Not every good setup becomes a winning trade, and yesterday was a good reminder of that.
I executed 3 trades:
❌ Loss
❌ Loss
➖ Break Even
The idea was to fade a liquidity sweep into a H1 PD Array, looking for confirmation through an M1 Breaker retest.
The first setup was actually valid and aligned with my trading model. Sometimes a well-executed trade simply doesn't work out, and that's part of the game.
The real mistake came on the second trade.
Price reached around 2R, but I failed to move my stop to Break Even according to my plan. After that, I lost focus and started trying to recover the loss by re-entering multiple times, adding another -0.50% that was completely avoidable.
The third trade was managed correctly and closed at Break Even.
Daily PnL: -1.55%
Not every good setup becomes a winning trade, and yesterday was a good reminder of that.
I executed 3 trades:
❌ Loss
❌ Loss
➖ Break Even
The idea was to fade a liquidity sweep into a H1 PD Array, looking for confirmation through an M1 Breaker retest.
The first setup was actually valid and aligned with my trading model. Sometimes a well-executed trade simply doesn't work out, and that's part of the game.
The real mistake came on the second trade.
Price reached around 2R, but I failed to move my stop to Break Even according to my plan. After that, I lost focus and started trying to recover the loss by re-entering multiple times, adding another -0.50% that was completely avoidable.
The third trade was managed correctly and closed at Break Even.
📊 Daily Trading Recap | August 5, 2026
🔴 Result: -1.00%
❌ 2 Trades - ❌ 2 Losses
Trade #1
A clear mistake. I entered on an M1 breaker retest while the market was still consolidating on the M5 timeframe. Even though I had a reason for the entry, I completely ignored the market context. Trading inside a range is something I need to avoid.
Trade #2
This one made more sense. I waited for the range to break and then looked for the M1 breaker retest to get long. The idea was valid, but the setup simply didn't work.
In both cases I was trying to catch a reversal after price reached an H1 PD Array (Breaker + FVG), despite the higher-timeframe bias still being bearish.
I'm only in my first month trading the M1 execution model. After starting with two great trading days last week, I became a little too confident. Looking back, the first trade yesterday was also influenced by the desire to recover Tuesday's losses, and that's never a good reason to enter the market.
🔴 Result: -1.00%
❌ 2 Trades - ❌ 2 Losses
Trade #1
A clear mistake. I entered on an M1 breaker retest while the market was still consolidating on the M5 timeframe. Even though I had a reason for the entry, I completely ignored the market context. Trading inside a range is something I need to avoid.
Trade #2
This one made more sense. I waited for the range to break and then looked for the M1 breaker retest to get long. The idea was valid, but the setup simply didn't work.
In both cases I was trying to catch a reversal after price reached an H1 PD Array (Breaker + FVG), despite the higher-timeframe bias still being bearish.
I'm only in my first month trading the M1 execution model. After starting with two great trading days last week, I became a little too confident. Looking back, the first trade yesterday was also influenced by the desire to recover Tuesday's losses, and that's never a good reason to enter the market.
Lost my Topstep challenge today.
Not because of the strategy. Because I stopped following my own rules. I recovered almost $1,000, then increased my size trying to make even more. That decision cost me the account.
Starting a new challenge with Apex Trader Funding, which integrates directly with TradingView and fits my workflow much better.
Not because of the strategy. Because I stopped following my own rules. I recovered almost $1,000, then increased my size trying to make even more. That decision cost me the account.
Starting a new challenge with Apex Trader Funding, which integrates directly with TradingView and fits my workflow much better.
CADCHF: 71% of Retail Traders Are LONG
CADCHF is entering my bearish watchlist for the coming sessions.
Several factors are currently aligning:
📊 COT: speculative positioning remains significantly more bearish on CAD than CHF.
📅 Seasonality: 4 out of 5 major historical lookbacks show negative CAD performance during August.
👥 Retail Sentiment: approximately 71% of traders are LONG CADCHF.
📉 Price Action: CADCHF is trading near the recent highs and inside my 0.5795–0.5820 premium area.
My primary bearish target is around 0.5705, with 0.5670–0.5650 becoming relevant if downside momentum expands.
But I'm not blindly shorting resistance.
I want the market to confirm the thesis through rejection, bearish displacement and a lower-timeframe structural shift.
👉 Full CADCHF analysis, COT data, seasonality and key levels on TradingView.
CADCHF is entering my bearish watchlist for the coming sessions.
Several factors are currently aligning:
📊 COT: speculative positioning remains significantly more bearish on CAD than CHF.
📅 Seasonality: 4 out of 5 major historical lookbacks show negative CAD performance during August.
👥 Retail Sentiment: approximately 71% of traders are LONG CADCHF.
📉 Price Action: CADCHF is trading near the recent highs and inside my 0.5795–0.5820 premium area.
My primary bearish target is around 0.5705, with 0.5670–0.5650 becoming relevant if downside momentum expands.
But I'm not blindly shorting resistance.
I want the market to confirm the thesis through rejection, bearish displacement and a lower-timeframe structural shift.
👉 Full CADCHF analysis, COT data, seasonality and key levels on TradingView.
📊 WEEKLY MACRO RECAP | AUG 3–7
🇺🇸 NFP: -23K vs +85K expected
🇺🇸 Unemployment: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
The headline unemployment rate looked resilient, but underneath the surface the picture was weaker.
May + June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K, while labor force participation dropped to 61.4%.
The message is becoming clearer: the US labor market is cooling.
Next week the focus shifts from employment to inflation.
Key events | Aug 10–14
🇦🇺 Tuesday — RBA Rate Decision
🇺🇸 Wednesday — CPI / Core CPI
🇬🇧 Thursday — UK GDP
🇺🇸 Thursday — PPI / Core PPI
After a weak jobs report, CPI is now the next major test for the Fed narrative.
Weak inflation → more dovish expectations.
Hot inflation → potential repricing.
🇺🇸 NFP: -23K vs +85K expected
🇺🇸 Unemployment: 4.1% vs 4.2% expected
🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings: +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
The headline unemployment rate looked resilient, but underneath the surface the picture was weaker.
May + June payrolls were revised down by a combined 103K, while labor force participation dropped to 61.4%.
The message is becoming clearer: the US labor market is cooling.
Next week the focus shifts from employment to inflation.
Key events | Aug 10–14
🇦🇺 Tuesday — RBA Rate Decision
🇺🇸 Wednesday — CPI / Core CPI
🇬🇧 Thursday — UK GDP
🇺🇸 Thursday — PPI / Core PPI
After a weak jobs report, CPI is now the next major test for the Fed narrative.
Weak inflation → more dovish expectations.
Hot inflation → potential repricing.
📊 WEEKLY COT RECAP | AUG 4
Latest speculative positioning shows some interesting shifts:
🇺🇸 USD — Still strongly net long, but overall participation declined. Bullish bias remains.
🇪🇺 EUR — Still net short, but significant short covering suggests bearish conviction is easing.
🇬🇧 GBP — Bearish positioning remains, although shorts were reduced during the week.
🇯🇵 JPY — Biggest shift of the week!
Strong increase in longs combined with aggressive short covering → clear bullish repositioning.
🇨🇭 CHF — Remains heavily net short. Bearish positioning unchanged.
🇦🇺 AUD — Still net short, but longs increased. Positioning is gradually improving.
🇳🇿 NZD — Remains strongly bearish despite some short covering.
🇨🇦 CAD — One of the weakest currencies in positioning terms. Speculators remain heavily net short.
📈 NASDAQ — Significant increase in speculative shorts (+20.5K). Positioning turned more defensive.
🥇 GOLD — Strong bullish positioning: longs increased while shorts were reduced.
Key COT shifts:
🟢 JPY & Gold → bullish
🟡 EUR/GBP → bearish positioning easing
🔴 CAD/NZD → remain weak
⚠️ Nasdaq → shorts building
Latest speculative positioning shows some interesting shifts:
🇺🇸 USD — Still strongly net long, but overall participation declined. Bullish bias remains.
🇪🇺 EUR — Still net short, but significant short covering suggests bearish conviction is easing.
🇬🇧 GBP — Bearish positioning remains, although shorts were reduced during the week.
🇯🇵 JPY — Biggest shift of the week!
Strong increase in longs combined with aggressive short covering → clear bullish repositioning.
🇨🇭 CHF — Remains heavily net short. Bearish positioning unchanged.
🇦🇺 AUD — Still net short, but longs increased. Positioning is gradually improving.
🇳🇿 NZD — Remains strongly bearish despite some short covering.
🇨🇦 CAD — One of the weakest currencies in positioning terms. Speculators remain heavily net short.
📈 NASDAQ — Significant increase in speculative shorts (+20.5K). Positioning turned more defensive.
🥇 GOLD — Strong bullish positioning: longs increased while shorts were reduced.
Key COT shifts:
🟢 JPY & Gold → bullish
🟡 EUR/GBP → bearish positioning easing
🔴 CAD/NZD → remain weak
⚠️ Nasdaq → shorts building
🥇 GOLD | Bullish, but I’m not chasing the move
Gold reacted strongly from the 4,000 Weekly demand and is now approaching the key 4,400–4,600 decision area.
COT remains strongly bullish, retail traders are still predominantly short and August seasonality continues to support the upside.
However, after this expansion, I prefer to wait.
Acceptance above 4,400–4,450 → 4,600 / 4,800
Rejection + loss of 4,300 → 4,100 / 4,000
My HTF bias remains bullish, but 4,400–4,600 will determine the next move.
📊 Full analysis & chart on TradingView
Gold reacted strongly from the 4,000 Weekly demand and is now approaching the key 4,400–4,600 decision area.
COT remains strongly bullish, retail traders are still predominantly short and August seasonality continues to support the upside.
However, after this expansion, I prefer to wait.
Acceptance above 4,400–4,450 → 4,600 / 4,800
Rejection + loss of 4,300 → 4,100 / 4,000
My HTF bias remains bullish, but 4,400–4,600 will determine the next move.
📊 Full analysis & chart on TradingView
📊 Today's Watchlist
🔴 CAD/CHF – Short
🟢 GBP/CHF - Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🔴 CAD/CHF – Short
🟢 GBP/CHF - Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
GBP/USD — One Final Push Before the Sell-Off? 👀
My bias remains BEARISH:
🔴 GBP COT: -57.8K
🟢 USD COT: +22.5K
📉 August seasonality: Bearish
⚠️ Retail: 72% SHORT
The heavy retail short positioning makes me cautious about entering now. I’m watching for a potential squeeze toward 1.3550–1.3640 before looking for bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
My bias remains BEARISH:
🔴 GBP COT: -57.8K
🟢 USD COT: +22.5K
📉 August seasonality: Bearish
⚠️ Retail: 72% SHORT
The heavy retail short positioning makes me cautious about entering now. I’m watching for a potential squeeze toward 1.3550–1.3640 before looking for bearish confirmation.
🎯 Targets: 1.3432 → 1.3365 → 1.3275 → 1.3225
🇺🇸 NQ — PRE-LONDON SESSION
NQ reacted strongly from PDL / H1 demand, leaving multiple bullish FVGs below current price.
For London, I’m watching 29,796–29,746 as the main support area. As long as buyers defend this zone, I see potential for price to continue higher and attack the liquidity above.
🎯 Upside targets:
29,847 → 29,886/29,908 → 29,935
⚠️ A loss of 29,746 would shift my attention back toward PDL 29,718 and the sell-side liquidity below.
NQ reacted strongly from PDL / H1 demand, leaving multiple bullish FVGs below current price.
For London, I’m watching 29,796–29,746 as the main support area. As long as buyers defend this zone, I see potential for price to continue higher and attack the liquidity above.
🎯 Upside targets:
29,847 → 29,886/29,908 → 29,935
⚠️ A loss of 29,746 would shift my attention back toward PDL 29,718 and the sell-side liquidity below.