📊 Today's Watchlist
🔴 EURAUD – Short
🔴 EURJPY – Short
🟢 AUDJPY – Long
🟢 AUDUSD – Long
🟢 NZDUSD – Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🔴 EURAUD – Short
🔴 EURJPY – Short
🟢 AUDJPY – Long
🟢 AUDUSD – Long
🟢 NZDUSD – Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
📊 Daily Recap
Futures (NQ)
Today I didn't execute any trades. During the NY session I was waiting for a liquidity sweep to look for a short opportunity, but the move came too close to the market close, so I decided to stay flat.
Forex (GBPJPY)
My GBPJPY position was closed at break-even. After a strong bullish push, volatility on the JPY picked up ahead of tomorrow's BoJ meeting and price came back to my entry after I had already moved my stop to BE.
Days like this remind me why risk management is everything. Without protecting the position, today's trade would have turned into a full loss. Preserving capital is just as important as making profits.
Futures (NQ)
Today I didn't execute any trades. During the NY session I was waiting for a liquidity sweep to look for a short opportunity, but the move came too close to the market close, so I decided to stay flat.
Forex (GBPJPY)
My GBPJPY position was closed at break-even. After a strong bullish push, volatility on the JPY picked up ahead of tomorrow's BoJ meeting and price came back to my entry after I had already moved my stop to BE.
Days like this remind me why risk management is everything. Without protecting the position, today's trade would have turned into a full loss. Preserving capital is just as important as making profits.
GBPJPY – Weekly Outlook 📊
The BoJ created plenty of volatility, but my overall view hasn't changed.
✅ 74% of retail traders are short (contrarian signal)
✅ COT still supports relative GBP strength over JPY
✅ Weekly market structure remains bullish
I'm closely watching the 214.30–215.80 demand zone. If price gives me confirmation according to my trading model, I'll be looking for fresh long opportunities.
🎯 Main target: a move back toward the highs, with potential continuation into the 219.50–220.00 area.
The BoJ created plenty of volatility, but my overall view hasn't changed.
✅ 74% of retail traders are short (contrarian signal)
✅ COT still supports relative GBP strength over JPY
✅ Weekly market structure remains bullish
I'm closely watching the 214.30–215.80 demand zone. If price gives me confirmation according to my trading model, I'll be looking for fresh long opportunities.
🎯 Main target: a move back toward the highs, with potential continuation into the 219.50–220.00 area.
📊 Weekly & Monthly Recap | FundedNext
July closed with a +1.7% return.
This week I only executed one trade on GBP/JPY, which was closed at breakeven.
Overall, I'm happy with the month's performance. After experiencing a -3.6% drawdown during June and July, I managed to recover the entire loss, bringing the account back to almost breakeven.
Now it's time to focus on August. The goal remains simple: protect capital, stay disciplined, and continue building consistent returns. The next milestone is +5%, which will allow me to complete the challenge and earn a Funded account.
July closed with a +1.7% return.
This week I only executed one trade on GBP/JPY, which was closed at breakeven.
Overall, I'm happy with the month's performance. After experiencing a -3.6% drawdown during June and July, I managed to recover the entire loss, bringing the account back to almost breakeven.
Now it's time to focus on August. The goal remains simple: protect capital, stay disciplined, and continue building consistent returns. The next milestone is +5%, which will allow me to complete the challenge and earn a Funded account.
❤1
📈 Topstep | Weekly & Monthly Recap
This was my best week since starting the Topstep challenge.
I executed two trades this week, on Monday and Wednesday, both during the New York PM session.
Looking back, Monday's trade had room for a much larger profit, but I'm still gaining experience with my new M1 execution model. Every trade is helping me refine the process.
Overall, I'm very satisfied with the progress.
The account is now only -0.45% from breakeven, making the objectives for August very clear:
• Return to breakeven.
• Build consistency.
• Push toward the +6% (+$3,000) profit target to complete the Trading Combine.
This was my best week since starting the Topstep challenge.
I executed two trades this week, on Monday and Wednesday, both during the New York PM session.
Looking back, Monday's trade had room for a much larger profit, but I'm still gaining experience with my new M1 execution model. Every trade is helping me refine the process.
Overall, I'm very satisfied with the progress.
The account is now only -0.45% from breakeven, making the objectives for August very clear:
• Return to breakeven.
• Build consistency.
• Push toward the +6% (+$3,000) profit target to complete the Trading Combine.
📊 Weekly Macro Recap | Jul 27 – Jul 31
A week dominated by central banks and key macroeconomic releases.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve
The FOMC left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected. Policymakers acknowledged solid economic activity and a resilient labor market, while reiterating that inflation remains above target due to supply-side pressures, particularly energy. Three members voted for an immediate rate hike, highlighting a slightly more hawkish tone.
🇬🇧 Bank of England
The BoE also kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote. Although inflation continues to ease, policymakers remain cautious as higher energy prices could trigger second-round inflation effects.
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan
The BoJ maintained its policy rate around 1.00% while reaffirming its expectation that inflation will remain above 2% during fiscal 2026. The central bank also emphasized upside inflation risks driven by energy prices, AI-related demand and a weaker yen, suggesting that further policy normalization remains on the table.
A week dominated by central banks and key macroeconomic releases.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve
The FOMC left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected. Policymakers acknowledged solid economic activity and a resilient labor market, while reiterating that inflation remains above target due to supply-side pressures, particularly energy. Three members voted for an immediate rate hike, highlighting a slightly more hawkish tone.
🇬🇧 Bank of England
The BoE also kept Bank Rate at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote. Although inflation continues to ease, policymakers remain cautious as higher energy prices could trigger second-round inflation effects.
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan
The BoJ maintained its policy rate around 1.00% while reaffirming its expectation that inflation will remain above 2% during fiscal 2026. The central bank also emphasized upside inflation risks driven by energy prices, AI-related demand and a weaker yen, suggesting that further policy normalization remains on the table.
Macro Outlook | Aug 3 – Aug 7
The first week of August will be lighter, but still includes several market-moving events.
🇺🇸 Monday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇳🇿 Tuesday
• Employment Change
• Unemployment Rate
🇨🇦🇺🇸 Friday
• Canadian Employment Report
• US Average Hourly Earnings
• US Non-Farm Payrolls
• US Unemployment Rate
NFP Friday will likely be the main volatility event of the week and could reshape expectations around the Fed's next policy decision.
The first week of August will be lighter, but still includes several market-moving events.
🇺🇸 Monday
• ISM Manufacturing PMI
🇳🇿 Tuesday
• Employment Change
• Unemployment Rate
🇨🇦🇺🇸 Friday
• Canadian Employment Report
• US Average Hourly Earnings
• US Non-Farm Payrolls
• US Unemployment Rate
NFP Friday will likely be the main volatility event of the week and could reshape expectations around the Fed's next policy decision.
📊 Weekly COT Report | Jul 28, 2026
🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY)
Institutional traders continue adding to long exposure, reinforcing the broader bullish USD narrative despite weaker GDP and Core PCE data.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish USD
🇪🇺 Euro
Large speculators remain net short EUR, although this week's increase in both long and short positioning suggests growing uncertainty rather than conviction.
Bias: 🔴 Slightly Bearish EUR
🇬🇧 British Pound
Funds remain heavily net short GBP. Despite the BoE maintaining rates, institutional positioning still favors additional downside.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish GBP
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar
Commercials continue accumulating long exposure while speculative positioning remains heavily short CAD.
With Canadian employment data scheduled next Friday, CAD pairs could experience increased volatility.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish CAD
🇦🇺 Australian Dollar
Speculators increased short exposure again following another softer inflation report.
Lower inflation reduces pressure on the RBA to tighten further.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish AUD
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar
NZD remains one of the weakest currencies in the report, with speculative shorts still dominating.
Employment data next week could become an important catalyst.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish NZD
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen
Large traders continue holding significant net short positions despite the BoJ gradually normalizing policy.
The Yen remains structurally weak, although positioning has become increasingly crowded.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish JPY (watch for potential short squeeze)
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc
CHF positioning remains moderately bearish, with institutions still favoring the Dollar over traditional safe havens.
Bias: 🔴 Mildly Bearish CHF
📈 Nasdaq (NQ)
Speculative accounts added fresh long positions while open interest continued rising.
Institutions remain constructive on US equities despite expectations for slower economic growth.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish Nasdaq
🥇 Gold
Gold experienced one of the largest reductions in speculative long positioning seen in recent weeks.
Although institutions remain net long overall, profit-taking has clearly increased following the recent rally.
Bias: 🟡 Bullish longer-term, but short-term positioning has weakened.
🇺🇸 US Dollar Index (DXY)
Institutional traders continue adding to long exposure, reinforcing the broader bullish USD narrative despite weaker GDP and Core PCE data.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish USD
🇪🇺 Euro
Large speculators remain net short EUR, although this week's increase in both long and short positioning suggests growing uncertainty rather than conviction.
Bias: 🔴 Slightly Bearish EUR
🇬🇧 British Pound
Funds remain heavily net short GBP. Despite the BoE maintaining rates, institutional positioning still favors additional downside.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish GBP
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar
Commercials continue accumulating long exposure while speculative positioning remains heavily short CAD.
With Canadian employment data scheduled next Friday, CAD pairs could experience increased volatility.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish CAD
🇦🇺 Australian Dollar
Speculators increased short exposure again following another softer inflation report.
Lower inflation reduces pressure on the RBA to tighten further.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish AUD
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar
NZD remains one of the weakest currencies in the report, with speculative shorts still dominating.
Employment data next week could become an important catalyst.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish NZD
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen
Large traders continue holding significant net short positions despite the BoJ gradually normalizing policy.
The Yen remains structurally weak, although positioning has become increasingly crowded.
Bias: 🔴 Bearish JPY (watch for potential short squeeze)
🇨🇭 Swiss Franc
CHF positioning remains moderately bearish, with institutions still favoring the Dollar over traditional safe havens.
Bias: 🔴 Mildly Bearish CHF
📈 Nasdaq (NQ)
Speculative accounts added fresh long positions while open interest continued rising.
Institutions remain constructive on US equities despite expectations for slower economic growth.
Bias: 🟢 Bullish Nasdaq
🥇 Gold
Gold experienced one of the largest reductions in speculative long positioning seen in recent weeks.
Although institutions remain net long overall, profit-taking has clearly increased following the recent rally.
Bias: 🟡 Bullish longer-term, but short-term positioning has weakened.
CHFJPY has reached one of the most important HTF demand zones on my chart.
After an aggressive sell-off, I'm not interested in chasing shorts here.
Instead, I'm waiting for price confirmation and a potential liquidity grab before making any decision.
In today's analysis I also break down:
✅ HTF structure
✅ COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ Seasonality
✅ My trading plan
👇 Full analysis available on TradingView.
After an aggressive sell-off, I'm not interested in chasing shorts here.
Instead, I'm waiting for price confirmation and a potential liquidity grab before making any decision.
In today's analysis I also break down:
✅ HTF structure
✅ COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ Seasonality
✅ My trading plan
👇 Full analysis available on TradingView.
📊 Today's Watchlist
🟢 CHFJPY – Long
🟢 CADJPY – Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
🟢 CHFJPY – Long
🟢 CADJPY – Long
Waiting for clean confirmations before taking any positions.
NQ NY PM recap 📉
2 short trades today, both executed on an M1 breaker retest.
Trade 1
❌ -0.30%
Trade 2
➖ Break Even (0.30% risk / 1.0% target)
HTF bias remained bearish:
• Previous Weekly High swept
• Price traded into an H1 bearish FVG
After the second entry, price immediately accepted below the previous low, confirming the shift in structure. I moved my stop to BE to protect capital.
Price came back, tagged my entry, and then continued to my original target.
Maybe I was too aggressive moving to BE... maybe not.
Right now I'm not trying to maximize profits. I'm building statistics on my M1 execution and management.
2 short trades today, both executed on an M1 breaker retest.
Trade 1
❌ -0.30%
Trade 2
➖ Break Even (0.30% risk / 1.0% target)
HTF bias remained bearish:
• Previous Weekly High swept
• Price traded into an H1 bearish FVG
After the second entry, price immediately accepted below the previous low, confirming the shift in structure. I moved my stop to BE to protect capital.
Price came back, tagged my entry, and then continued to my original target.
Maybe I was too aggressive moving to BE... maybe not.
Right now I'm not trying to maximize profits. I'm building statistics on my M1 execution and management.
📊 EUR/USD Market Outlook
Is this the beginning of a bullish reversal... or just another bull trap?
In today's analysis I break down:
✅ Daily market structure
✅ EUR & USD COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ August seasonality
✅ The key resistance zone I'm watching for potential short opportunities.
Read the full TradingView analysis
Is this the beginning of a bullish reversal... or just another bull trap?
In today's analysis I break down:
✅ Daily market structure
✅ EUR & USD COT positioning
✅ Retail sentiment
✅ August seasonality
✅ The key resistance zone I'm watching for potential short opportunities.
Read the full TradingView analysis
NQ Recap | August 4, 2026 📉
Daily PnL: -1.55%
Not every good setup becomes a winning trade, and yesterday was a good reminder of that.
I executed 3 trades:
❌ Loss
❌ Loss
➖ Break Even
The idea was to fade a liquidity sweep into a H1 PD Array, looking for confirmation through an M1 Breaker retest.
The first setup was actually valid and aligned with my trading model. Sometimes a well-executed trade simply doesn't work out, and that's part of the game.
The real mistake came on the second trade.
Price reached around 2R, but I failed to move my stop to Break Even according to my plan. After that, I lost focus and started trying to recover the loss by re-entering multiple times, adding another -0.50% that was completely avoidable.
The third trade was managed correctly and closed at Break Even.
Daily PnL: -1.55%
Not every good setup becomes a winning trade, and yesterday was a good reminder of that.
I executed 3 trades:
❌ Loss
❌ Loss
➖ Break Even
The idea was to fade a liquidity sweep into a H1 PD Array, looking for confirmation through an M1 Breaker retest.
The first setup was actually valid and aligned with my trading model. Sometimes a well-executed trade simply doesn't work out, and that's part of the game.
The real mistake came on the second trade.
Price reached around 2R, but I failed to move my stop to Break Even according to my plan. After that, I lost focus and started trying to recover the loss by re-entering multiple times, adding another -0.50% that was completely avoidable.
The third trade was managed correctly and closed at Break Even.
📊 Daily Trading Recap | August 5, 2026
🔴 Result: -1.00%
❌ 2 Trades - ❌ 2 Losses
Trade #1
A clear mistake. I entered on an M1 breaker retest while the market was still consolidating on the M5 timeframe. Even though I had a reason for the entry, I completely ignored the market context. Trading inside a range is something I need to avoid.
Trade #2
This one made more sense. I waited for the range to break and then looked for the M1 breaker retest to get long. The idea was valid, but the setup simply didn't work.
In both cases I was trying to catch a reversal after price reached an H1 PD Array (Breaker + FVG), despite the higher-timeframe bias still being bearish.
I'm only in my first month trading the M1 execution model. After starting with two great trading days last week, I became a little too confident. Looking back, the first trade yesterday was also influenced by the desire to recover Tuesday's losses, and that's never a good reason to enter the market.
🔴 Result: -1.00%
❌ 2 Trades - ❌ 2 Losses
Trade #1
A clear mistake. I entered on an M1 breaker retest while the market was still consolidating on the M5 timeframe. Even though I had a reason for the entry, I completely ignored the market context. Trading inside a range is something I need to avoid.
Trade #2
This one made more sense. I waited for the range to break and then looked for the M1 breaker retest to get long. The idea was valid, but the setup simply didn't work.
In both cases I was trying to catch a reversal after price reached an H1 PD Array (Breaker + FVG), despite the higher-timeframe bias still being bearish.
I'm only in my first month trading the M1 execution model. After starting with two great trading days last week, I became a little too confident. Looking back, the first trade yesterday was also influenced by the desire to recover Tuesday's losses, and that's never a good reason to enter the market.