AUD/USD remains bullish, but short-term looks stretched.

Retail is heavily short (83%), supporting a bullish bias, and seasonality remains positive for April.
However, price is currently reacting from a key HTF supply zone, increasing the probability of a pullback.

Watch for a retracement into 0.70–0.695 (FVG zones) before looking for continuation setups.

NQ recap (21/04):

H1 short bias respected, but PM session gave a liquidity sweep into the 50% of a bullish FVG → shift to reactive setup.

Entry on M5 breaker retest, clean execution and management.
Closed slightly early due to session close volatility and missed confidence on a pre-marked level.
Good trade overall, but more was available.

AM session also printed a clean BPR short setup (not executed due to PM-only focus)

NQ recap (NY PM session):

NASDAQ-100 swept liquidity above H1 highs → retracement with bullish HTF bias.
Waited for LTF confirmation (BPR / iFVG) + SMT with S&P 500 → short on M5 retest.

Execution mistakes:
SL not placed above structure
TP too ambitious (missed OB + FVG below)
Model was valid. Execution wasn’t.

Week: -0.12%
Plenty of room to recover.

Long entry on EURCAD at 1.6015 from a key support area following a corrective pullback.

The overall context remains mixed, with some higher timeframe bearish elements, but in the short term:
Clear reaction from the 1.59–1.60 demand zone
Short-term structure starting to build (potential continuation)
Liquidity target resting around the 1.62 area

Setup:
Entry: 1.6015
Stop Loss: 1.5962
Take Profit: 1.6212

The idea is to capitalize on a corrective move into higher timeframe supply before any potential bearish continuation.

Invalidation below 1.5960.

📊MACRO OUTLOOK – WEEK APRIL 27 → MAY 1, 2026

USD strong.
Europe weak.
Risk-off signals building.

Next week = central banks + GDP + PCE → high volatility.
Not a week to predict. A week to react.

Watch EUR, AUD, Gold, and NASDAQ closely.

Gold is currently in a technical pullback, but the overall structure remains clearly bullish.

Smart money (COT) continues to accumulate long positions, while retail is already exposed → a further shakeout phase is still possible before the real move.

Key zone: 4,600–4,650
As long as this level holds → continuation scenario toward 4,850 / 5,000 / 5,400

I’m not chasing price.
I wait for structure, then execution.

EURUSD remains structurally bullish.
After the impulsive move from 1.14, price is now pulling back inside a corrective channel, this looks like a classic continuation phase, not a reversal.
COT data confirms institutional accumulation, while retail traders are heavily short (70%), creating a strong contrarian signal.
As long as 1.15 holds, I’m expecting continuation towards 1.18 and potentially higher.

NZD/USD approaching a key supply zone.

Context is interesting:
Strong bearish structure (daily)
COT heavily short NZD but starting to unwind
Seasonality for May is negative

This suggests one thing:
→ Upside could be corrective before continuation lower

Watching for reactions around 0.5880 – 0.5950.

GBP/USD is currently in a very interesting spot.

COT shows strong institutional shorts, retail is also heavily short (69%), but price is still pushing higher after reclaiming demand.

This kind of imbalance often leads to short squeezes before any real downside.
Key level to watch: 1.3350–1.34
If it holds → continuation higher
If it breaks → shift to bearish bias

Not a market to chase.
Wait for reaction.

WEEKLY MACRO (RECAP + OUTLOOK)

Last week was all about central banks and mixed US data.
Fed, BOE, ECB → no real shifts.
US data → weaker GDP but still resilient labor.

Result: no clear direction, just reactions.
We’re not in a trending macro environment right now.
We’re in a data-driven, liquidity-driven market.

Now looking ahead:
RBA, US PMI + JOLTS and NFP.

NFP expected 60K vs 178K previous → market is pricing a slowdown.
This is key.
If confirmed → USD weakness
If not → strong squeeze

📈 AUD/USD – Institutional Bullish Continuation

AUDUSD continues to show a very strong bullish structure both technically and from a positioning perspective.

Latest COT data confirms aggressive institutional accumulation on AUD, while retail traders remain heavily short (82%), a classic contrarian bullish signal.
Technically, price is consolidating above the breakout structure while holding the daily imbalance zone around 0.7140–0.7100.

As long as the market remains above 0.7100 on a daily basis, the continuation scenario toward:
🎯 0.7280
🎯 0.7400

🌍 Weekly Macro Report

🇺🇸 US labor data stayed resilient last week, supporting the USD despite softer wage growth.
🇨🇦 CAD weakened sharply after poor employment numbers.
🇦🇺 AUD held stable following the RBA decision.
🇳🇿 NZD remained under pressure after soft labor data.

🔥 Main focus next week:
US CPI (Tuesday)
US PPI (Wednesday)
UK GDP (Thursday)
US Retail Sales (Thursday)

The CPI release will likely define direction across:
✔️ USD
✔️ Gold
✔️ Equities
✔️ Bond yields

📈 EURCAD Analysis

I’m currently watching a potential bullish recovery structure developing on EURCAD after the recent CAD weakness.

Main confluences:
✔️ weak Canadian employment data
✔️ bearish retail positioning on EURCAD (88% short)
✔️ higher timeframe demand reaction
✔️ CAD COT positioning softening
✔️ ascending structure holding above 1.5900

As long as price continues holding the current structure, I’m watching for a possible continuation toward:
🎯 1.6230 — 1.6350 liquidity zone.