USDCHF remains structurally bullish.
USD is still supported (COT net long) while CHF shows strong and increasing net shorts → clear macro divergence in favor of upside.
Retail is slightly long (~58%), suggesting part of the move is already priced in → avoiding aggressive entries.
April seasonality is mixed/slightly bearish, supporting a potential short-term pullback before continuation.
Price is currently in a key supply zone (0.7960–0.8040). I’m watching for a retracement into 0.7940–0.7920, or deeper into 0.7870–0.7840, before looking for longs.
Bias: bullish → targets 0.8040 / 0.81+
Key level: 0.7840 holds the structure.
USD is still supported (COT net long) while CHF shows strong and increasing net shorts → clear macro divergence in favor of upside.
Retail is slightly long (~58%), suggesting part of the move is already priced in → avoiding aggressive entries.
April seasonality is mixed/slightly bearish, supporting a potential short-term pullback before continuation.
Price is currently in a key supply zone (0.7960–0.8040). I’m watching for a retracement into 0.7940–0.7920, or deeper into 0.7870–0.7840, before looking for longs.
Bias: bullish → targets 0.8040 / 0.81+
Key level: 0.7840 holds the structure.
📊 DAILY RECAP – APRIL 8, 2026
Clean execution today.
No forex trades, no setups, no trades. Simple.
On futures (NQ), took a short after FOMC:
Entry on M5 broker retest
3 contracts
Structured management: partials at +20 / +40 → full TP at +60
Perfect example of letting the plan do the work.
https://topstepx.com/share/stats?share=20956346
Clean execution today.
No forex trades, no setups, no trades. Simple.
On futures (NQ), took a short after FOMC:
Entry on M5 broker retest
3 contracts
Structured management: partials at +20 / +40 → full TP at +60
Perfect example of letting the plan do the work.
https://topstepx.com/share/stats?share=20956346
EURCAD is setting up for a potential short, but timing is everything here.
Bearish structure is clear, CAD is gaining strength (COT), and seasonality supports downside.
However, with ~80% of retail already short, a liquidity sweep above 1.62 is very likely before any real move lower.
I’m watching for a rejection from higher levels before entering.
Bearish structure is clear, CAD is gaining strength (COT), and seasonality supports downside.
However, with ~80% of retail already short, a liquidity sweep above 1.62 is very likely before any real move lower.
I’m watching for a rejection from higher levels before entering.
EURUSD update.
Retail traders are currently 67% short, which suggests potential upside in the short term.
Meanwhile, COT data shows no strong bullish positioning on the euro, while the USD remains relatively supported.
Price is now approaching a key resistance zone between 1.1550 and 1.1600, where I’ll be watching closely for potential short setups.
My plan is simple: wait for the pullback, look for confirmation on lower timeframes, and only then position short.
This looks like a classic liquidity move before a possible continuation lower.
Retail traders are currently 67% short, which suggests potential upside in the short term.
Meanwhile, COT data shows no strong bullish positioning on the euro, while the USD remains relatively supported.
Price is now approaching a key resistance zone between 1.1550 and 1.1600, where I’ll be watching closely for potential short setups.
My plan is simple: wait for the pullback, look for confirmation on lower timeframes, and only then position short.
This looks like a classic liquidity move before a possible continuation lower.
GBPUSD is showing early signs of a potential reversal after weeks of bearish pressure.
Trendline break, strong reaction from a key demand zone, and retail traders still positioned short → a compelling contrarian setup.
I’m monitoring potential pullbacks into the 1.33 area to evaluate long entries with proper confirmation.
🎯 Key targets: 1.3530 – 1.3650 – 1.3750
Trendline break, strong reaction from a key demand zone, and retail traders still positioned short → a compelling contrarian setup.
I’m monitoring potential pullbacks into the 1.33 area to evaluate long entries with proper confirmation.
🎯 Key targets: 1.3530 – 1.3650 – 1.3750
USDCHF is approaching a key decision zone.
Retail traders are heavily long (over 80%), while price has just rejected a major supply area near 0.8000.
At the same time, COT data shows early signs of USD weakness, and seasonality for April supports a softer price action.
I’m currently watching two scenarios:
– Short continuation on a pullback into 0.7900
– Possible reaction from demand around 0.7750
Retail traders are heavily long (over 80%), while price has just rejected a major supply area near 0.8000.
At the same time, COT data shows early signs of USD weakness, and seasonality for April supports a softer price action.
I’m currently watching two scenarios:
– Short continuation on a pullback into 0.7900
– Possible reaction from demand around 0.7750
USDCAD update:
Very clean and interesting context.
From a macro perspective (COT), the market remains positioned to the upside, with the CAD showing structural weakness.
However, in the short term, we have three opposing factors:
Retail traders heavily long → contrarian signal
Negative seasonality for April
Technical rejection from a key supply zone
As a result, I expect a bearish continuation toward the 1.3600–1.3550 area.
From there, I’ll be looking for reversal signals to re-enter long, in line with the broader macro bias.
Very clean and interesting context.
From a macro perspective (COT), the market remains positioned to the upside, with the CAD showing structural weakness.
However, in the short term, we have three opposing factors:
Retail traders heavily long → contrarian signal
Negative seasonality for April
Technical rejection from a key supply zone
As a result, I expect a bearish continuation toward the 1.3600–1.3550 area.
From there, I’ll be looking for reversal signals to re-enter long, in line with the broader macro bias.
EUR/USD is currently trading into a key resistance zone (1.18–1.19).
The structure has clearly shifted bullish after breaking out of the previous bearish channel, but price is now in a reactive area → not the ideal point to enter.
The interesting factor here is sentiment:
👉 73% of retail traders are short
This reinforces the idea of further upside, but likely with an intermediate step:
➡️ pullback toward 1.1650–1.17
➡️ potential continuation toward 1.20–1.21
The structure has clearly shifted bullish after breaking out of the previous bearish channel, but price is now in a reactive area → not the ideal point to enter.
The interesting factor here is sentiment:
👉 73% of retail traders are short
This reinforces the idea of further upside, but likely with an intermediate step:
➡️ pullback toward 1.1650–1.17
➡️ potential continuation toward 1.20–1.21
Weekly Recap 13-17/04/2026
This week:
FundedNext: -0.2%
Topstep: -0.6%
Overall:
FundedNext: -2%
Topstep: -0.9%
Main points:
Several small losses due to over-management
One mistake on NQ
Missed GBP/CAD trade
This week:
FundedNext: -0.2%
Topstep: -0.6%
Overall:
FundedNext: -2%
Topstep: -0.9%
Main points:
Several small losses due to over-management
One mistake on NQ
Missed GBP/CAD trade
Macro Recap (Apr 13–17)
USD inflation cooling (PPI below expectations)
GBP strong GDP surprise
AUD weaker employment data
Macro Outlook (Apr 20–24)
Key events:
CAD CPI
NZD CPI
GBP: CPI + PMI + Retail Sales
USD: Retail Sales + Fed testimony
USD inflation cooling (PPI below expectations)
GBP strong GDP surprise
AUD weaker employment data
Macro Outlook (Apr 20–24)
Key events:
CAD CPI
NZD CPI
GBP: CPI + PMI + Retail Sales
USD: Retail Sales + Fed testimony
AUD/USD remains bullish, but short-term looks stretched.
Retail is heavily short (83%), supporting a bullish bias, and seasonality remains positive for April.
However, price is currently reacting from a key HTF supply zone, increasing the probability of a pullback.
Watch for a retracement into 0.70–0.695 (FVG zones) before looking for continuation setups.
Retail is heavily short (83%), supporting a bullish bias, and seasonality remains positive for April.
However, price is currently reacting from a key HTF supply zone, increasing the probability of a pullback.
Watch for a retracement into 0.70–0.695 (FVG zones) before looking for continuation setups.
NQ recap (21/04):
H1 short bias respected, but PM session gave a liquidity sweep into the 50% of a bullish FVG → shift to reactive setup.
Entry on M5 breaker retest, clean execution and management.
Closed slightly early due to session close volatility and missed confidence on a pre-marked level.
Good trade overall, but more was available.
AM session also printed a clean BPR short setup (not executed due to PM-only focus)
H1 short bias respected, but PM session gave a liquidity sweep into the 50% of a bullish FVG → shift to reactive setup.
Entry on M5 breaker retest, clean execution and management.
Closed slightly early due to session close volatility and missed confidence on a pre-marked level.
Good trade overall, but more was available.
AM session also printed a clean BPR short setup (not executed due to PM-only focus)
NQ recap (NY PM session):
NASDAQ-100 swept liquidity above H1 highs → retracement with bullish HTF bias.
Waited for LTF confirmation (BPR / iFVG) + SMT with S&P 500 → short on M5 retest.
Execution mistakes:
SL not placed above structure
TP too ambitious (missed OB + FVG below)
Model was valid. Execution wasn’t.
Week: -0.12%
Plenty of room to recover.
NASDAQ-100 swept liquidity above H1 highs → retracement with bullish HTF bias.
Waited for LTF confirmation (BPR / iFVG) + SMT with S&P 500 → short on M5 retest.
Execution mistakes:
SL not placed above structure
TP too ambitious (missed OB + FVG below)
Model was valid. Execution wasn’t.
Week: -0.12%
Plenty of room to recover.
Long entry on EURCAD at 1.6015 from a key support area following a corrective pullback.
The overall context remains mixed, with some higher timeframe bearish elements, but in the short term:
Clear reaction from the 1.59–1.60 demand zone
Short-term structure starting to build (potential continuation)
Liquidity target resting around the 1.62 area
Setup:
Entry: 1.6015
Stop Loss: 1.5962
Take Profit: 1.6212
The idea is to capitalize on a corrective move into higher timeframe supply before any potential bearish continuation.
Invalidation below 1.5960.
The overall context remains mixed, with some higher timeframe bearish elements, but in the short term:
Clear reaction from the 1.59–1.60 demand zone
Short-term structure starting to build (potential continuation)
Liquidity target resting around the 1.62 area
Setup:
Entry: 1.6015
Stop Loss: 1.5962
Take Profit: 1.6212
The idea is to capitalize on a corrective move into higher timeframe supply before any potential bearish continuation.
Invalidation below 1.5960.
📊 Weekly Trading Recap (Apr 20–24)
50% win rate… still negative.
That’s what happens when losses are bigger than wins.
FundedNext Phase 2: -2%
EURCAD still running.
Topstep: -1.1%
Nothing broken. Just execution to refine.
Next week → precision mode.
50% win rate… still negative.
That’s what happens when losses are bigger than wins.
FundedNext Phase 2: -2%
EURCAD still running.
Topstep: -1.1%
Nothing broken. Just execution to refine.
Next week → precision mode.
Gold is currently in a technical pullback, but the overall structure remains clearly bullish.
Smart money (COT) continues to accumulate long positions, while retail is already exposed → a further shakeout phase is still possible before the real move.
Key zone: 4,600–4,650
As long as this level holds → continuation scenario toward 4,850 / 5,000 / 5,400
I’m not chasing price.
I wait for structure, then execution.
Smart money (COT) continues to accumulate long positions, while retail is already exposed → a further shakeout phase is still possible before the real move.
Key zone: 4,600–4,650
As long as this level holds → continuation scenario toward 4,850 / 5,000 / 5,400
I’m not chasing price.
I wait for structure, then execution.