US Oil remains constructive on my view.
Daily structure has broken out of the broader bearish channel, COT is still net bullish on WTI, and seasonality continues to support strength into spring.
The current rally is also being amplified by geopolitical risk around Iran and Hormuz, so I stay bullish while price holds the reclaimed breakout base.
If support holds, I will keep watching for continuation into the next daily imbalance higher.
Daily structure has broken out of the broader bearish channel, COT is still net bullish on WTI, and seasonality continues to support strength into spring.
The current rally is also being amplified by geopolitical risk around Iran and Hormuz, so I stay bullish while price holds the reclaimed breakout base.
If support holds, I will keep watching for continuation into the next daily imbalance higher.
Daily Recap (02/04/2026)
Flat day across all accounts. No trades taken.
No clear edge, no executions.
Staying out is also a position.
Flat day across all accounts. No trades taken.
No clear edge, no executions.
Staying out is also a position.
TRADING UPDATE – 31/03 → 03/04
Topstep: -$159.86
FundedNext Phase 2: -$303
This week gave me very clear feedback.
The issue wasn’t the market.
It was my execution.
GBPCAD managed correctly → BE, but missed opportunity.
AUDJPY entered without confirmation → closed early (-0.6%).
Clean NQ setup (SMT + FVG + sweep) → not executed.
Then forced a low-quality trade → small loss.
April 1: execution clean, but SL + missed move.
April 2–3: no trades → discipline.
The market respected every level.
My model worked.
But I didn’t always follow it.
Key lesson:
Missing a good trade is fine.
Replacing it with a bad one is not.
Now the focus is simple:
clarity > frequency
execution > analysis
discipline > impulse
Topstep: -$159.86
FundedNext Phase 2: -$303
This week gave me very clear feedback.
The issue wasn’t the market.
It was my execution.
GBPCAD managed correctly → BE, but missed opportunity.
AUDJPY entered without confirmation → closed early (-0.6%).
Clean NQ setup (SMT + FVG + sweep) → not executed.
Then forced a low-quality trade → small loss.
April 1: execution clean, but SL + missed move.
April 2–3: no trades → discipline.
The market respected every level.
My model worked.
But I didn’t always follow it.
Key lesson:
Missing a good trade is fine.
Replacing it with a bad one is not.
Now the focus is simple:
clarity > frequency
execution > analysis
discipline > impulse
AUD/JPY is currently in a corrective phase within a still bullish higher timeframe structure.
Price is reacting inside a key demand zone (109.70–108.70), and this is where the next move will be decided.
COT data still supports upside (JPY heavily shorted), while retail sentiment remains positioned against the trend, typically a bullish signal.
Seasonality in April also favors AUD strength.
At this stage, I’m not looking to anticipate the move, but to react:
If price confirms strength → continuation toward highs
If demand breaks → deeper correction scenario
Price is reacting inside a key demand zone (109.70–108.70), and this is where the next move will be decided.
COT data still supports upside (JPY heavily shorted), while retail sentiment remains positioned against the trend, typically a bullish signal.
Seasonality in April also favors AUD strength.
At this stage, I’m not looking to anticipate the move, but to react:
If price confirms strength → continuation toward highs
If demand breaks → deeper correction scenario
MACRO SHIFT: EVERYTHING NOW DEPENDS ON CPI
US data came in strong last week:
📈 Jobs beat expectations
🛒 Consumer still spending
🏭 Manufacturing back in expansion
But here’s the real shift:
Wages are slowing down.
We’re entering a Goldilocks phase:
→ Growth is stable
→ Inflation pressure is easing
⚠️ Now the market has ONE focus:
CPI (Friday)
Scenarios:
📉 Soft inflation → risk-on continues
📈 Hot inflation → USD strength & risk-off
This is a week to react.
US data came in strong last week:
📈 Jobs beat expectations
🛒 Consumer still spending
🏭 Manufacturing back in expansion
But here’s the real shift:
Wages are slowing down.
We’re entering a Goldilocks phase:
→ Growth is stable
→ Inflation pressure is easing
⚠️ Now the market has ONE focus:
CPI (Friday)
Scenarios:
📉 Soft inflation → risk-on continues
📈 Hot inflation → USD strength & risk-off
This is a week to react.
06/04/2026 – Daily Recap
FundedNext: no forex trades
NQ: 1 trade (SL)
AM:
Perfect context (H1 bias + M5 structure), but execution mistake → entered late chasing iFVG instead of the breaker.
PM:
Valid setup but market already extended (+100 points from the H1 entry).
Chose to stay flat.
Lesson: better to miss a trade than enter out of timing.
FundedNext: no forex trades
NQ: 1 trade (SL)
AM:
Perfect context (H1 bias + M5 structure), but execution mistake → entered late chasing iFVG instead of the breaker.
PM:
Valid setup but market already extended (+100 points from the H1 entry).
Chose to stay flat.
Lesson: better to miss a trade than enter out of timing.
USDCHF remains structurally bullish.
USD is still supported (COT net long) while CHF shows strong and increasing net shorts → clear macro divergence in favor of upside.
Retail is slightly long (~58%), suggesting part of the move is already priced in → avoiding aggressive entries.
April seasonality is mixed/slightly bearish, supporting a potential short-term pullback before continuation.
Price is currently in a key supply zone (0.7960–0.8040). I’m watching for a retracement into 0.7940–0.7920, or deeper into 0.7870–0.7840, before looking for longs.
Bias: bullish → targets 0.8040 / 0.81+
Key level: 0.7840 holds the structure.
USD is still supported (COT net long) while CHF shows strong and increasing net shorts → clear macro divergence in favor of upside.
Retail is slightly long (~58%), suggesting part of the move is already priced in → avoiding aggressive entries.
April seasonality is mixed/slightly bearish, supporting a potential short-term pullback before continuation.
Price is currently in a key supply zone (0.7960–0.8040). I’m watching for a retracement into 0.7940–0.7920, or deeper into 0.7870–0.7840, before looking for longs.
Bias: bullish → targets 0.8040 / 0.81+
Key level: 0.7840 holds the structure.
📊 DAILY RECAP – APRIL 8, 2026
Clean execution today.
No forex trades, no setups, no trades. Simple.
On futures (NQ), took a short after FOMC:
Entry on M5 broker retest
3 contracts
Structured management: partials at +20 / +40 → full TP at +60
Perfect example of letting the plan do the work.
https://topstepx.com/share/stats?share=20956346
Clean execution today.
No forex trades, no setups, no trades. Simple.
On futures (NQ), took a short after FOMC:
Entry on M5 broker retest
3 contracts
Structured management: partials at +20 / +40 → full TP at +60
Perfect example of letting the plan do the work.
https://topstepx.com/share/stats?share=20956346
EURCAD is setting up for a potential short, but timing is everything here.
Bearish structure is clear, CAD is gaining strength (COT), and seasonality supports downside.
However, with ~80% of retail already short, a liquidity sweep above 1.62 is very likely before any real move lower.
I’m watching for a rejection from higher levels before entering.
Bearish structure is clear, CAD is gaining strength (COT), and seasonality supports downside.
However, with ~80% of retail already short, a liquidity sweep above 1.62 is very likely before any real move lower.
I’m watching for a rejection from higher levels before entering.
EURUSD update.
Retail traders are currently 67% short, which suggests potential upside in the short term.
Meanwhile, COT data shows no strong bullish positioning on the euro, while the USD remains relatively supported.
Price is now approaching a key resistance zone between 1.1550 and 1.1600, where I’ll be watching closely for potential short setups.
My plan is simple: wait for the pullback, look for confirmation on lower timeframes, and only then position short.
This looks like a classic liquidity move before a possible continuation lower.
Retail traders are currently 67% short, which suggests potential upside in the short term.
Meanwhile, COT data shows no strong bullish positioning on the euro, while the USD remains relatively supported.
Price is now approaching a key resistance zone between 1.1550 and 1.1600, where I’ll be watching closely for potential short setups.
My plan is simple: wait for the pullback, look for confirmation on lower timeframes, and only then position short.
This looks like a classic liquidity move before a possible continuation lower.
GBPUSD is showing early signs of a potential reversal after weeks of bearish pressure.
Trendline break, strong reaction from a key demand zone, and retail traders still positioned short → a compelling contrarian setup.
I’m monitoring potential pullbacks into the 1.33 area to evaluate long entries with proper confirmation.
🎯 Key targets: 1.3530 – 1.3650 – 1.3750
Trendline break, strong reaction from a key demand zone, and retail traders still positioned short → a compelling contrarian setup.
I’m monitoring potential pullbacks into the 1.33 area to evaluate long entries with proper confirmation.
🎯 Key targets: 1.3530 – 1.3650 – 1.3750
USDCHF is approaching a key decision zone.
Retail traders are heavily long (over 80%), while price has just rejected a major supply area near 0.8000.
At the same time, COT data shows early signs of USD weakness, and seasonality for April supports a softer price action.
I’m currently watching two scenarios:
– Short continuation on a pullback into 0.7900
– Possible reaction from demand around 0.7750
Retail traders are heavily long (over 80%), while price has just rejected a major supply area near 0.8000.
At the same time, COT data shows early signs of USD weakness, and seasonality for April supports a softer price action.
I’m currently watching two scenarios:
– Short continuation on a pullback into 0.7900
– Possible reaction from demand around 0.7750
USDCAD update:
Very clean and interesting context.
From a macro perspective (COT), the market remains positioned to the upside, with the CAD showing structural weakness.
However, in the short term, we have three opposing factors:
Retail traders heavily long → contrarian signal
Negative seasonality for April
Technical rejection from a key supply zone
As a result, I expect a bearish continuation toward the 1.3600–1.3550 area.
From there, I’ll be looking for reversal signals to re-enter long, in line with the broader macro bias.
Very clean and interesting context.
From a macro perspective (COT), the market remains positioned to the upside, with the CAD showing structural weakness.
However, in the short term, we have three opposing factors:
Retail traders heavily long → contrarian signal
Negative seasonality for April
Technical rejection from a key supply zone
As a result, I expect a bearish continuation toward the 1.3600–1.3550 area.
From there, I’ll be looking for reversal signals to re-enter long, in line with the broader macro bias.
EUR/USD is currently trading into a key resistance zone (1.18–1.19).
The structure has clearly shifted bullish after breaking out of the previous bearish channel, but price is now in a reactive area → not the ideal point to enter.
The interesting factor here is sentiment:
👉 73% of retail traders are short
This reinforces the idea of further upside, but likely with an intermediate step:
➡️ pullback toward 1.1650–1.17
➡️ potential continuation toward 1.20–1.21
The structure has clearly shifted bullish after breaking out of the previous bearish channel, but price is now in a reactive area → not the ideal point to enter.
The interesting factor here is sentiment:
👉 73% of retail traders are short
This reinforces the idea of further upside, but likely with an intermediate step:
➡️ pullback toward 1.1650–1.17
➡️ potential continuation toward 1.20–1.21
Weekly Recap 13-17/04/2026
This week:
FundedNext: -0.2%
Topstep: -0.6%
Overall:
FundedNext: -2%
Topstep: -0.9%
Main points:
Several small losses due to over-management
One mistake on NQ
Missed GBP/CAD trade
This week:
FundedNext: -0.2%
Topstep: -0.6%
Overall:
FundedNext: -2%
Topstep: -0.9%
Main points:
Several small losses due to over-management
One mistake on NQ
Missed GBP/CAD trade
Macro Recap (Apr 13–17)
USD inflation cooling (PPI below expectations)
GBP strong GDP surprise
AUD weaker employment data
Macro Outlook (Apr 20–24)
Key events:
CAD CPI
NZD CPI
GBP: CPI + PMI + Retail Sales
USD: Retail Sales + Fed testimony
USD inflation cooling (PPI below expectations)
GBP strong GDP surprise
AUD weaker employment data
Macro Outlook (Apr 20–24)
Key events:
CAD CPI
NZD CPI
GBP: CPI + PMI + Retail Sales
USD: Retail Sales + Fed testimony