In a notable development, Yair Lapid, Israeli opposition leader, is also set to attend Senator Lindsey Graham’s funeral this week, amidst news that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also set to meet U.S. President Donald J. Trump on the sidelines of the funeral, as Israel continues to prepare for a potential widening of the already expanding conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East.

Axios, citing two sources familiar with the decision, reports that President Donald J. Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct strikes against Iran on Friday, ending 13 consecutive nights of U.S. attacks.

According to the report, the decision came as Oman continued talks with Iran on a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the U.S. military remains prepared to resume or escalate operations on short notice, Trump reportedly believes pursuing a diplomatic agreement is currently the "smarter strategy."

CENTCOM says that, as of July 25, it has redirected 12 commercial vessels attempting to breach the blockade, disabled two that failed to comply, and boarded two to verify compliance.

Earlier today, CENTCOM reported that U.S. forces conducted a verification boarding of the Comoros-flagged motor tanker 'Charminar' in the Arabian Sea. According to the command, the inspection was completed and the vessel was cleared to continue its voyage.

CENTCOM also states that it disabled the Mozambique-flagged motor tanker Lavine in the Gulf of Oman on July 24 after the crew allegedly attempted to violate the blockade multiple times and ignored repeated warnings. According to the command, the vessel is no longer transiting to Iran.

The New York Times reports that President Donald J. Trump has, for now, paused plans to significantly expand U.S. strikes against Iran after senior military leaders warned that doing so could dangerously deplete Patriot interceptor and other air defense missile stockpiles needed to protect U.S. forces in the Middle East.

According to the report, the administration is weighing those military constraints alongside the risks of broader regional escalation, while continuing economic pressure and leaving the door open to diplomacy. If accurate, the decision highlights how limited stocks of critical air defense munitions are increasingly shaping U.S. military options as the conflict continues.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center has issued an advisory for vessels transiting the Southern Red Sea near the Bab al Mandeb Strait after receiving a report from a tanker that witnessed a splash from an unknown projectile in close proximity to the vessel. The vessel and crew are safe and continuing on.

Iranian state media outlet Tasnim News reports that an oil tanker exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after striking a naval mine while transiting outside Iran's designated shipping route.

As of this writing, neither U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) nor the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) has confirmed the reported incident, and the claim, like many others from Iran, remains unverified.

As mentioned in yesterday’s assessment (now available for general access), the Strait of Hormuz and its administration remains the primary point of contention between the U.S. and Iran. According to CBS’s @margbrennan, citing an Iranian official, talks, brokered by Oman, are progressing. During these talks, the U.S. has not struck Iran, after a dozen consecutive days of retaliatory U.S. strikes.

According to TankerTrackers, the merchant vessel identified by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) as the Mozambique-flagged M/T Lavine is the same ship operating under the name M/T Disha (IMO 8818219).

CENTCOM says the vessel repeatedly attempted to breach the U.S. naval blockade of Iran, ignored multiple warnings, and was ultimately disabled after U.S. forces fired into its engine room on July 24th.

TankerTrackers reports it first observed the vessel entering the U.S. blockade perimeter on July 23. The organization notes the tanker has been under U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions for the past two years and alleges it previously transported Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to the Houthis in Yemen.

The Forward Seamen's Union of India (FSUI) says the vessel was carrying 28 Indian seafarers, all of whom survived the incident. The union alleges the strike targeted the vessel's accommodation area. However, video shared by the organization appears to show flames emanating from a hatch at the base of the smokestack, directly above the engine room, which is broadly consistent with CENTCOM's statement that U.S. forces disabled the vessel by firing into its engine room. The footage alone does not conclusively establish the exact point of impact.

Source: https://x.com/FSUIINDIA/status/2080892015332749709?s=20

According to the Romanian Ministry of Defense, for the third time in just as many days, a Romanian F-16 shot down what was presumably a Russian drone that violated Romanian airspace. Previous shootdowns this week took place near the border with Ukraine and o er the Black Sea.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi claims a Ukrainian attack on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea killed one sailor, accusing Kyiv of acting "at the behest of Israel."

Araghchi warned that "what the freeloader in Kyiv did CANNOT GO UNANSWERED," signaling the incident could further expand tensions beyond the Middle East.

The allegation comes amid growing reports of closer military cooperation between Russia and Iran during the conflict, including claims that Moscow has provided Tehran with intelligence and other forms of support.

Axios reports that U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Adm. Brad Cooper recommended ending the recent bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz after concluding it had largely achieved its objectives and reached the limit of its effectiveness.

According to Axios, Cooper told senior defense officials that two weeks of strikes had significantly degraded Iran's ability to attack shipping and that most planned targets had already been hit. He reportedly said the remaining roughly 20% of designated Operation Epic Fury targets would require a return to major combat operations, and that absent such a decision, there was little military value in continuing the limited bombing campaign.

Axios says Cooper's assessment, along with warnings from Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine about dwindling air defense interceptor stocks, helped influence President Trump's decision to pause U.S. strikes on Friday. The report adds that U.S.-Iran talks are continuing while both sides appear to be observing an informal "quiet for quiet" pause.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/07/26/hormuz-bombing-pause-trump-iran

Chances of a new ceasefire agreement soon between Iran and the United States appear to be on the rise once again, following reports that President Trump had decided to halt the recent strike campaign against Southern Iran, with traders on Polymarket placing chances of a ceasefire by August 31, 2026 at 75%.