As tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and the United States appear to be escalating, with Iran’s IRGC launching near daily drone and missile attacks against U.S. bases across the Middle East, including those in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. Traders on Polymarket predict that Iran will once again carry out military action against a Gulf State on Friday, July 17, with chances currently sitting at around 65%.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that a fourth round of strikes against Iranian military targets began at 6:00 a.m. ET today.

According to CENTCOM, the operation is intended to further degrade Iran's military capability to attack commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, following several days of Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and the subsequent U.S. military response.

The military air picture, visible via FlightRadar24.com, over the Strait of Hormuz region appears relatively light despite CENTCOM's fourth consecutive round of strikes against Iranian military targets.

Currently visible are 2 U.S. Air Force KC-46A Pegasus aerial refueling tankers, 1 KC-135 Stratotanker, and 1 U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft.

Also visible are several aircraft belonging to Gulf partner nations, though their missions cannot be determined from open-source flight data alone. They may be supporting coalition operations, providing defensive coverage in anticipation of further Iranian attacks, or simply conducting routine operations.

As always, the publicly visible air picture represents only a fraction of the force. Additional tankers, fighters, ISR platforms, and other support aircraft are almost certainly airborne but not broadcasting on publicly accessible flight-tracking networks while supporting ongoing operations.

According to the Ukrainian military, the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) have expanded their maritime drone campaign beyond the Sea of Azov and into the Black Sea, claiming 136 Russian vessels have been struck since July 6.

The maritime campaign is part of a broader Ukrainian effort to systematically isolate Crimea by targeting the logistics network that sustains Russian forces. In recent weeks, Ukraine has struck bridges, rail lines, ferries, fuel depots, fuel trucks, and now maritime shipping, aiming to disrupt the flow of personnel, equipment, ammunition, and fuel to the peninsula.

The campaign is having an effect, with fuel shortages reportedly forcing authorities in Crimea to restrict fuel sales to prioritize military and government operations, increasing pressure on Russian logistics supporting the occupation.

The video released by the USF today appears to be from the night of the 14th.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced the completion of the latest round of strikes, which began at 6:00 a.m. ET and concluded around 7:30 a.m. ET.

The operation targeted Iranian coastal defense systems, along with cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island, further degrading capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The strikes are the latest in an escalating campaign that follows repeated Iranian attacks on merchant vessels, including ships transiting without authorization from the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), as well as missile and drone attacks against U.S. forces and Gulf partners in recent days.

Axios' Barak Ravid, citing sources familiar with the discussions, reports that President Donald J. Trump convened a Situation Room meeting yesterday to review plans for a broader military campaign against Iran, extending beyond the ongoing strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.

The meeting took place after three consecutive days of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) strikes targeting Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial shipping and before the fourth round of strikes began today, as the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports was set to take effect.

In an interview with Fox News ahead of the meeting, Trump said the U.S. would hit Iran "hard" over the coming days, warning that if Tehran does not negotiate, "next week comes the power plants... next week comes the bridges." He also confirmed the U.S. is monitoring activity at Pickaxe Mountain, an underground site suspected of supporting Iran's nuclear program, and warned it could be targeted if necessary.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has published the first statistics of the second Naval blockade of Iran. In the first 17 hours, two vessels have been redirected.

Photo: CENTCOM

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to arrived in the United States on Sunday to attend the funeral for Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, officials tell The Jerusalem Post. During his visit, Netanyahu is likely to also meet with President Donald J. Trump.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced the beginning of a second wave of attacks on Iran today targeting their capability to attack commercial vessels transiting the region.

CBS News, citing U.S. officials familiar with the discussions, reports that the Pentagon has examined contingency plans for possible military action against Cuba, including an Army-led air assault involving the 101st Airborne Division. Officials emphasized the planning is preliminary and does not indicate President Trump has decided to authorize an operation.

The report says the discussions come as the Trump administration continues its maximum pressure campaign against Havana through sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and economic measures while accusing the Cuban government of refusing reforms.

According to CBS, planners acknowledge that any military option would be complicated by the ongoing conflict with Iran, which has already drawn significant U.S. forces and capabilities into the Middle East. The report also says the administration continues to prefer a negotiated political transition, though officials believe diplomatic efforts have stalled.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cuba-military-options-pentagon/

As a second wave of U.S. air strikes is now underway against Iranian military targets, the publicly visible air picture over the Strait of Hormuz region shows:
• 3 U.S. Air Force KC-46A Pegasus
• 2 U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotankers
• 1 U.S. Air Force E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and control (AWACS) aircraft

The visible aircraft represent only a small portion of the force supporting the operation. Additional fighters, ISR platforms and other support assets are almost certainly airborne but not broadcasting on publicly accessible flight-tracking networks.

Purported video showing a Patriot air defense missile launching from a U.S. base near Erbil, Iraq, amid reports over the past few hours of an attack targeting Erbil International Airport.

The footage has not been independently verified, but follows a series of escalating Iranian and proxy attacks against U.S. forces and partner nations across the Gulf region. Additional details on the incident are still emerging.

The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, reports that President Donald J. Trump is increasingly leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations against Iran, though no final decision has been made.

According to the report, options discussed in recent Situation Room meetings include broadening airstrikes, targeting Iran's underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility, striking additional energy infrastructure, and potentially seizing Kharg Island or other strategic islands in and around the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. forces.

The Journal reports the discussions follow Iran's renewed attacks on commercial shipping and the collapse of the interim ceasefire, after which the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports and resumed military strikes. Officials told the Journal that Trump continues to say he prefers a diplomatic resolution, but is seeking options that would increase pressure on Tehran to end attacks on shipping and return to negotiations.

Vice President JD Vance also reiterated that the military campaign is intended to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, saying, "We're not just going to bomb and bomb and bomb. We're going to try to use our military force as one of the many tools that we have to solve the problem."

Source: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-leans-toward-expanding-u-s-military-operations-in-iran-6c230462?mod=hp_lead_pos1

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces have disabled the Curaçao-flagged tanker M/T Belma after the vessel ignored repeated warnings and continued toward Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal, in violation of the reimposed U.S. naval blockade.

According to CENTCOM, a U.S. aircraft rendered the vessel inoperable by firing AGM-114 "Hellfire" missiles into its smokestack, preventing it from reaching Iran.

The incident marks the first commercial vessel struck near Kharg Island, the first vessel disabled since the second U.S. blockade took effect on July 14, and the 10th non-compliant vessel disabled across both blockade operations. During the first 24 hours of the renewed blockade, U.S. forces also redirected two commercial vessels away from Iranian ports.