Despite renewed clashes between the U.S. Navy and Iran in as well as around the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, chances on Polymarket of a permanent peace settlement between the two countries by the end of the year remain at an all time high, with traders still predicting that the chances of a deal by December 31, 2026 are at 77%.

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that U.S. forces have disabled two vessels, the M/T Sea Star III and M/T Sevda, earlier today in the Gulf of Oman in support of the naval blockade of Iran.

We are learning a bit more about yesterday’s high-intensity engagement between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz. According to a report from CBS, citing Iranian media, 10 sailors are claimed to be wounded and 5 missing after the engagement.

According to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) affiliated news outlet Fars News Agency the IRGC-N and Iranian Marines interdicted and boarded the Barbados-flagged crude oil tanker Ocean Koi. Per the reports the vessel has now been redirected to Iran’s southern coast.

According to Kellie Meyer of NewsNation and Barak Ravid, U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani are meeting now to discuss the ongoing conflict in the Middle East with Iran and continued U.S.-Qatar cooperation. This, as Qatar has stepped up to partially fill the role that Pakistan previously filled as mediator between the two belligerents in the conflict.

According to Tasnim News, citing an Iranian official, should the U.S. transit the Strait of Hormuz and continue to interdict Iranian vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports, Iran will respond “decisive[ly].”

Following reports from Iranian state media that a U.S. Navy ship was damaged in the Strait of Hormuz during a complex Iranian attack that involved missiles, drones, and small fast craft, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has posted a video montage featuring the three ships involved in yesterday's incident: USS Mason (DDG 87), USS Truxtun (DDG 103), and USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115).

President Donald J. Trump has posted to his Truth Social account that there will be a 3-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine May 9-11th to commemorate Russia's Victory Day. The ceasefire will pause all kinetic activity and include the swap of 1,000 prisoners from each side.

Following U.S. President Donald J. Trump’s announcement on a nominal ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that starting from 10 a.m. Kyiv time, the plotted points (above) will be excluded from Ukrainian strikes. The Russian Victory Day Parade is tomorrow and the plotted points include the entirety of the Red Square. Reports also indicate that Russia has also agreed to this nominal ceasefire.

The U.S. State department has said that two days of intensive talks between Israeli and Lebanese negotiators will take place next week on the 14th and 15th in Washington. Per the release, “Discussions will build a framework for lasting peace and security arrangements, the full restoration of Lebanese sovereignty throughout its territory, the delineation of borders, and creating concrete pathways for humanitarian relief and reconstruction in Lebanon.”

According to a release from U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), at the direction of SOUTHCOM Commander General Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a strike on a vessel of a designated terrorist organization operating in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Per the release, 2 narco-terrorists were killed in the strike and 1 survived. Following the strike, SOUTHCOM notified the U.S. Coast Guard to begin search and rescue.

A review of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from MarineTraffic.com over the past 24 hours indicates 0 commercial vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically vital maritime chokepoints. Prior to the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28th, the average number of vessels transiting the Strait was 130.

The second Baseline 10 and SPY-6 Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyer to enter the U.S. surface fleet, Ted Stevens (DDG 128), left Huntington Ingalls Industries’ shipbuilding division in Pascagoula, Mississippi yesterday for Norfolk, Virginia. She will be commissioned as the USS Ted Stevens (DDG 128) in Alaska later this year.

U.S. President Donald J. Trump has been silent on whether or not a response was received last night from Iran, choosing not to speak to reporters on the matter last night when he arrived back at the White House.

Russia’s Victory Day parade took place earlier today without a hitch but absent of armored vehicles and other mobile platforms.