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Open Source Intelligence Monitor focused on Europe and Conflicts across the World. RT ≠ Endorsement. Want to Support my Work? https://ko-fi.com/osintdefender
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Senior advisers to President Donald J. Trump would prefer Israel strike Iran before the United States launches a large-scale air campaign on the country, stating that “the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate,” claiming that Iranian retaliation would help muster support from American voters for a U.S. strike, two people familiar with ongoing discussions told Politico.
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According to a release from the Cuban Embassy in the United States, eight individuals allegedly involved in the shooting from earlier today have been identified. Amijail Sánchez González, Leordan Enrique Cruz Gómez, Conrado Galindo Sariol, José Manuel Rodríguez Castelló, Cristian Ernesto Acosta Guevara, and Roberto Azcorra Consuegra have been identified after being questioned by Cuban authorities, with Michel Ortega Casanov being identified as one of the four killed in the exchange of fire with the Cuban Border Guard.

Additionally, Cuban authorities have claimed that assault rifles, handguns, improvised explosive devices (Molotov cocktails), body armor, telescopic sights, and camouflage uniforms were all seized on the boat, and Cuban authorities are alleging that they planned to carry out "terrorist acts" inside of Cuba.

An additional individual, Cuban national Duniel Hernández Santos, was arrested inside of Cuba, and Cuban authorities claim that he confessed to being prepositioned from the U.S. to Cuba in order to facilitate the landing of the group near Canal el Pino.
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According to Libby Dean of NewsNation, the boat used in the attempted extraction that was foiled by Cuban authorities was registered to a 65-year-old Cuban-born man who reported the vessel as stolen after being contacted by U.S. authorities. The vessel was docked in the Florida Keys. The individual in question is not a suspect at this time. Four people were killed and seven injured, including a Cuban Border Guardsman, in the exchange of fire that took place 1nm northeast of the El Pino Canal.
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Ahead of tomorrow’s third round of nuclear talks in Geneva between Iran and the United States, mediated by Oman, traders on Polymarket appear to be growing more confident that a new nuclear deal can be decided upon, with the chances of a nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran before the end of 2027 currently sitting at 54%.
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In addition to the 11 F-22 Raptors now forward deployed to Ovda Airbase in Southern Israel, more and more Raptors with the U.S. Air Force’s 1st Fighter Wing continue to arrive at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, England, from Joint Base Langley–Eustis, Virginia. 13 F-22s currently remain at Lakenheath, 12 that have arrived in the last day from the United States as well as one from the first wave to Israel that suffered a fuel leak and was forced to return to Suffolk, with all of them expected to continue on to Israel by Friday.
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The buildup in the Middle East continues while negotiations are scheduled to resume at 5:30p.m. Geneva time with several U.S. Air Force heavy lift aircraft in transit including 1 C-5M Super Galaxy, 13 C-17A Globemaster III, and 2 KC-46A Pegasus.
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North Korea’s Ninth Party Congress ended yesterday. During a parade to mark its end, North Korean special operations soldiers who fought in the Russian Kursk region against Ukraine marched with both the Russian and North Korean flags at the head of their formation.
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During a press briefing yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the indirect talks happening today between Iran and the U.S. will largely be focused on their nuclear program. However, he caveated the statement by saying that Iran’s unwillingness to negotiate on its burgeoning ballistic missile program, a key point of contention, is still a sticking point in the negotiation process, as past assessments have Iran fielding ballistic missiles of increasing range over the course of the next ten years.

Full Comment:
“The negotiations tomorrow and the talks tomorrow will be largely focused on the nuclear program, and we hope progress can be made because that’s the President’s preference: to make progress on the diplomatic front. But it’s also important to remember that Iran refuses – refuses – to talk about ballistic missiles to us or to anyone, and that’s a big problem.”
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Clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces have resumed after Afghanistan announced the targeting of Pakistani border outposts in response to a Pakistani airstrike that they say killed a number of civilians earlier this month. Clashes are ongoing as Afghan news sources claim that up to 15 Pakistani posts have already been taken along with prisoners. However, this information has not been verified by Pakistani government sources and must be verified.
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White House special advisor Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were disappointed by what they heard from the Iranian Foreign Minister during this morning's negotiations, according to a source familiar with the details who spoke to Axios. Another round of talks is still ongoing now in Geneva.
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Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who mediated the indirect U.S.-Iran talks today, has said that today's talks have now finished and both sides will consult with their governments after "significant progress" was made. However, the next round of talks will not happen at the decision-maker level and instead at the technical level next week in Vienna, Austria.
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All Persian-language news and political networks in Iran and across the Middle East broadcast by the Yahsat Satellite Communications Company based in the United Arab Emirates, are current offline, with the reason for the outage still unclear.
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Despite the ongoing buildup of air-defense systems, military aircraft, and munition at bases across the Middle East, which has stretched on now for several week, officials believe that the Pentagon still does not have the forces or munitions needed for an extended bombing campaign against Iran. Seven to ten days is about how long the American military positioned in the region could continually carry out strikes, according to one U.S. military official who spoke to the New York Times.
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Reports of possible strikes by the Pakistani Air Force against Taliban military infrastructure and sites across the Afghan capital of Kabul.
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Pakistan state-run media has now confirmed that the Pakistani Air Force carried out a number of strikes tonight against Taliban military sites within the capital of Kabul and several other areas across Afghanistan, as part of Operation Ghazab Lil Haq. Under the operation, aircraft of Pakistan’s Air Force reportedly targeted and destroying two brigade headquarters in Kabul; a corps headquarters, brigade headquarters, ammunition depot, and logistics base in Kandahar; and a corps headquarters in Paktia.
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Video footage published earlier by Pakistan’s Defense Ministry, which shows several of tonight’s strikes by the Pakistani Air Force against Taliban command-and-control centers and other military infrastructure in the Afghan capital of Kabul and other provinces of Eastern Afghanistan, close to the border with Pakistan.
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Major pre-positioning moves are being made tonight by the U.S. Air Force in preparation for potential strikes soon against Iran, with 5 KC-46A Pegasus and at least 2 KC-135R/T Stratotankers, along with a number of C-17A Globemaster llls, currently bound for the Middle East, many for air bases in Israel. 12 F-22 Raptors with the 1st Fighter Wing are currently forward deployed to Ovda Airbase in Southern Israel, while around half a dozen aerial-refueling tankers, KC-46s and KC-135s, are located at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv.
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The Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), Adm. Brad Cooper, briefed President Trump on Thursday about potential military options against Iran, officials tell ABC News.
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Twelve F-35A Lightning lls with the U.S. Air Force’s 421st Fighter Squadron, 388th Fighter Wing out of Hill Air Force Base, Utah, arriving earlier today at RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, England, as a stopping-off point before continuing on towards the Middle East. The ongoing buildup of air power directed at Iran continues across Europe and the Middle East.

Photo credit: @havoc_aviation
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