DeVol Network
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Will the #Bitcoin ETF news hit over the weekend? 🧐

If you don’t think it will, & with 7 day at-the-money IV breaking above 60 day ATM IV for the first time since October, now may be a good time to sell vol using a short expiration.

🟒 2024-01-07, PUT, 42,966
πŸ”΄ 2024-01-07, PUT, 43,710
πŸ”΄ 2024-01-07, CALL, 43,710
🟒 2024-01-07, CALL, 44,466

The payoff is over 2 to 1, & the premium you’ll collect on this short straddle with clipped wings will be juicy. πŸ₯©
#DeFi #OptionsTrading #NFA
Looking at the #Bitcoin daily chart, we see that the price has fallen back into the sideways channel it’s been in since early December.

The 21 day Exponential Moving Average was acting as support until the price sliced through it yesterday. :knife::chart_with_downwards_trend:

Now the 50 day Moving Average looks to be giving some support at 42,500.

If you wanted to express the opinion that the price will stay above the 50 day MA in the short term (and with 1 day at-the-money IV having fallen down to 33), you could buy a relatively inexpensive call spread.

🟒 2024-01-15, CALL, 42,508
πŸ”΄ 2024-01-15, CALL, 43,489
#NFA
The market’s future expectation of volatility is now lower post ETF, and #Bitcoin at-the-money IV’s have been crushed.

Buying vol has become a lot cheaper. πŸ€‘

Looking at the price chart, we see the BTC has bounced off the bottom of the sideways channel it’s (mostly) been in since early December. πŸ“‰πŸ“ˆ

If you think the bounce will hold over the next 2 days, you could buy an ATM short duration call spread that gives you a risk/reward profile of 2:1.

🟒 2024-01-21, CALL, 41,578
πŸ”΄ 2024-01-21, CALL, 42,953
#NFA #OptionsTrading
#Bitcoin has been holding around 52,000 for several days.

Looking at the charts, we see that this area acted as resistance in September and December 2021. πŸ“‰

We also know that US markets will be closed on Monday in observance of a holiday, and BTC ETF inflows won’t resume until Tuesday. πŸ€”

Based on this information, if we believe BTC will stay below 52,000 for the next few days, we could either:

Sell a 2-day call spread or buy a 2-day put spread.

Here’s an example of the short call spread on DeVol:

πŸ”΄ 2024-02-18, CALL, 51,857
🟒 2024-02-18, CALL, 52,043

Max gain < 51,857
Breakeven = 51,932
Max loss > 52,043

Here’s an example of the long put put spread on DeVol:

🟒 2024-02-18, PUT, 51,671
πŸ”΄ 2024-02-18, PUT, 51,302

Max gain < 51,303
Breakeven = 51,500
Max loss > 51,672
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
#Bitcoin has been trading sideways for over a week. πŸ“‰πŸ“ˆ

Looking at the daily chart we see that short term resistance is at 53,000 & support is at 50,800. πŸ›‘οΈ

At-the-money implied volatility for the 2024-02-22 expiration is 50.

If you believe BTC will stay range bound within the next two days, you could simultaneously sell a call spread & a put spread on DeVol, collecting both premiums.

🟒 2024-02-22, PUT, 50,587
πŸ”΄ 2024-02-22, PUT, 50,782
πŸ”΄ 2024-02-22, CALL, 52,977
🟒 2024-02-22, CALL, 53,181

This four-legged option strategy is called an iron condor, & it will be profitable if the price stays between 50,709 and 53,049 by expiration in less than 2 days.

Max gain > 50,783 & < 52,978
Breakeven = 50,709 & 53,049
Max loss < 50,588 & > 53,182
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
#Bitcoin continues to chop sideways.πŸ“‰πŸ“ˆ

DeVol Analytics shows that implied volatility is higher than realized vol by 33 points. 🀯

Volatility is known to cluster, so selling vol could be a good short term strategy.

The daily chart shows resistance at 53,000 and support at 50,800. πŸ›‘οΈ

Based on this info, the team executes a multi-leg options strategy known as a butterfly spread on Crypto Options Action. The trade profits if BTC stays between 50,432 & 52,830 by expiration on 02/24. Max profit is at 51,631. ⏱️
#DeFi, #OptionsTrading, #NFA
#Bitcoin surges higher! πŸ“ˆ

Check out this week’s episode of Crypto Options Action where we
review last week’s successful short butterfly strategy, then dive into the charts & vol surface to plan a new options trade on DeVol.

With resistance at around 65K, & buying pressure high due to the spot ETF, the team decides to execute a 60,404 / 64,405 call spread that expires on 03/01. ⏱️

Max profit is above 64,406
Breakeven is at 61,389
Max loss is below 60,405.
#DeFi, #OptionsTrading, #NFA
#Bitcoin is closing in on new highs! πŸ“ˆ

The 60 day skew is showing that calls are more expensive than puts, which means the sentiment over the longer term is bullish.

However, if you believe the previous all time high will act as resistance in the short term, you could buy an 03/06 BTC put spread on DeVol.

🟒 2024-03-06, PUT, 67,754
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-06, PUT, 67,359

This strategy will be profitable if the price stays below 67,540 by expiration.

Max gain < 67,360
Breakeven = 67,540
Max loss > 67,754
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
We’re only in week one of testing the previous all time high. How long before #Bitcoin breaks out with conviction? πŸ€”

In Nov/Dec of 2020 it took BTC 3 weeks to print a proper new high. πŸ“ˆ

In Jan/Feb of 2017 it took BTC 2 months to break out to new highs. β±οΈπŸ“ˆ

If you think resistance will hold for at least a few more days, then buying an 03/08 put spread on DeVol could be the move.

🟒 2024-03-08, PUT, 67,156
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-08, PUT, 66,690

This strategy will be profitable if the price stays below 66,899 by expiration.

Max gain < 66,691
Breakeven = 66,899
Max loss > 67,156
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
#Bitcoin is knocking on new all time highs! πŸ“ˆ

On the new episode of Crypto Options Action, Jordan & JC study the price charts and vol surface in order to profit from the volatility.

The team thinks a breakout to new highs is less likely to happen over the weekend due to the lack of buying pressure from the spot ETF over the weekend, and the fact that in previous cycles BTC has taken a minimum of a few weeks to make new highs.

The 2 day implied vol on the DeVol platform is currently lower than on other platforms, which means buying options is cheaper than it should be.

Given this info, and the fact that BTC could still break out with conviction at any moment, they decide to execute a long butterfly spread that expires on 03/10.

πŸ”΄ 2024-03-10, PUT, 66,425
🟒 2024-03-10, PUT, 68,792
🟒 2024-03-10, CALL, 68,792
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-10, CALL, 70,931

Max profit is below 66,426 & above 70,931
Breakeven is 67,410 & 70,175
Max loss is 68,792
#DeFi, #OptionsTrading, #NFA
The battle between the #Bitcoin bulls & bears is raging! πŸ“‰πŸ“ˆπŸ₯Š

On the weekly chart, the 69K resistance level is holding so far.

If you think BTC will stay range bound between 66K & 70K within the next two days, you could express this opinion on DeVol by creating a multi-leg option strategy called an iron condor.

🟒 2024-03-17, PUT, 65,941
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-17, PUT, 66,384
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-17, CALL, 69,565
🟒 2024-03-17, CALL, 70,032

Max gain > 66,384 & < 69,566
Breakeven = 66,204 & 69,747
Max loss < 65,942 & > 70,032
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
Over the past 6 days, 68,200 has acted as resistance for #Bitcoin, with support at 62,000.

BTC is currently trading in the middle of this range.

If you think BTC will stay roughly where it is over the next 2 days, you could sell an iron butterfly on DeVol.

This multi-leg strategy will allow you to express a specific market opinion (that BTC will stay range bound), & allow you to define your risk before executing the trade.

🟒 2024-03-23, PUT, 62,474
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-23, PUT, 65,211
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-23, CALL, 65,211
🟒 2024-03-23, CALL, 68,066

Max gain = 65,211
Breakeven = 63,596 & 66,828
Max loss < 62,475 & > 68,066
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
#Bitcoin moves up! πŸ“ˆ

But, it’s still trading in a range with support at 60,900 and resistance at 73,800.

If you think momentum will carry the price higher over the next two days, you could use options to buy a call spread on DeVol.

Buying a spread lowers the cost of the premium you’ll pay, and it allows you to better define your risk before executing the trade. 🀌

🟒 2024-03-27, CALL, 70,486
πŸ”΄ 2024-03-27, CALL, 71,119

Max gain > 71,119
Breakeven = 70,801
Max loss < 70,487
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
Both #Bitcoin and #Solana are trading near the top of their respective ranges.

On the new episode of Crypto Options Action, we explore reasons behind Solana and Bitcoin’s price surge this year. We also look at the charts for clues as to where these assets are heading next.

And we explore a new tool on the DeVol platform that lets users quickly express a specific market opinion via multi-leg options.
#DeFi, #OptionsTrading, #NFA
#Bitcoin has been trading in a range between 61K and 73.8K for over a month.

However, the short term momentum over the past two days is up. πŸ“ˆ

If you think BTC will continue moving higher over the short term, you could buy a call spread on DeVol that expires in 2 days.

With a call spread, if you’re wrong about the trade, the max you can lose is less than if you bought a single call.

🟒 2024-04-06, CALL, 68,434
πŸ”΄ 2024-04-06, CALL, 68,957

Max gain > 68,957
Breakeven = 68,647
Max loss < 68,435
#DeFi, #Options, #NFA
#Bitcoin stays range bound! πŸ“‰πŸ“ˆ

On the new episode of Crypto Options Action, Jordan & J.C. study the price charts & vol surface in order to build a new options trade.

The BTC 2-day at-the-money IV is 42, which is very low. This means the cost for buying puts & calls is cheap.

Based on this information, the team decides to execute a short butterfly spread on DeVol that expires 04/07. If the price of BTC moves up or down by a little over $1,000 by expiration in less than 2 days, the trade will be profitable.

πŸ”΄ 2024-04-07, PUT, 65,770
🟒 2024-04-07, PUT, 67,459
🟒 2024-04-07, CALL, 67,459
πŸ”΄ 2024-04-07, CALL, 69,192

Max profit is below 65,771 & above 69,192
Breakeven is 66,385 & 68,535
Max loss is 67,460
#DeFi, #OptionsTrading, #NFA
The geopolitical events over the last few days have caused #Bitcoin historical volatility to spike in the near term. 1 day implied vol has also moved higher. πŸ“ˆ

This could be a good opportunity to sell vol, & collect a juicy premium, with a Short Iron Butterfly spread on DeVol.

If BTC stays between 61,975 and 65,321 by expiration in less than one day, the trade will be profitable.

🟒 2024-04-16, PUT, 60,929
πŸ”΄ 2024-04-16, PUT, 63,648
πŸ”΄ 2024-04-16, CALL, 63,648
🟒 2024-04-16, CALL, 66,487

Max profit is at 63,648
Breakeven is 61,975 & 65,321
Max loss is below 60,930 & above 66,488
#DeFi, #OptionsTrading, #NFA