🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸🇮🇱Reuters is reporting that Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has been in contact "all night long" with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi for a settlement deal.

🔸Under the proposal, a ceasefire would take effect immediately, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 15–20 days to finalise a broader settlement. The deal, tentatively dubbed the "Islamabad Accord," would include a regional framework for the strait, with final in-person talks in Islamabad.

🔸There was no immediate response from U.S. and ‌Iranian officials. ⁠Pakistan's foreign office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi declined comment.
Iranian officials have previously told Reuters that Tehran was seeking a permanent ceasefire with guarantees they will not be attacked again by the U.S. and Israel.

🔸 Iran has received messages from mediators including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt according to the outlet.

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🇷🇺💬🇺🇸🇮🇷😁 Moscow has seen Trump's statements on the Strait of Hormuz addressed to Tehran but prefers not to comment on them - Peskov.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei confirms that they received the said proposals however, Iran won’t reopen the strait of Hormuz in exchange for a “temporary ceasefire”, while the US lacks the readiness for a permanent ceasefire, the official was quoted as saying. Tehran will not be pressured into accepting deadlines and making a decision, the official added.

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🛢The International Energy Agency outlines a two-track response to the Middle East oil shock: boost supply where possible, but — crucially — cut demand to protect consumers from price spikes.

On the supply side, the main action is the record release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, aimed at stabilizing markets. However, the IEA stresses this alone is not enough given the scale of disruption.

The bulk of the recommendations focus on immediate demand-side measures, which can quickly reduce oil consumption and ease prices

➡️Work from home to cut commuting fuel use
➡️Reduce driving speeds to improve fuel efficiency
➡️Carpool more / use public transport
➡️Limit air travel where possible
➡️Encourage flexible work schedules to reduce peak transport demand
➡️Promote energy-saving behaviors in households and businesses

Governments are also advised to provide targeted financial support for vulnerable households, and implement short-term policies that curb fuel demand without harming economic activity

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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 So what the hell happened over the weekend?

So now that the dust has settled a bit, we’ve spoken to people and had time to analyze the sequence of events. Here are the two most likely scenarios (albeit very similar) for what happened over the weekend in Iran with the so-called “Search and Rescue Operation” to retrieve the downed F-15E crew.

It’s now fairly clear that the weekend events by the Americans were a Joint Special Operations Command attempt to establish a FOB (Forward Operating Base) in Isfahan. The question remains whether the F-15E was part of that operation, or whether the downing of the jet triggered it.

We lean toward the theory that the F-15E was the “first wave” of the operation. Why? We’re fortunate that Trump isn’t particularly careful with his messaging. In one of his post-rescue posts, he said the rescued WSO (Weapons Systems Officer) was a “respected Colonel.”

That immediately raises a red flag. It’s not common for a colonel (O-6) to serve as a WSO in an F-15E Strike Eagle. WSOs are typically mid-career officers—captains (O-3) or majors (O-4)—paired with pilots of similar rank. However, a colonel could serve as a WSO if designated as the mission commander (MC) for a larger, multi-aircraft operation. U.S. Air Force doctrine allows a senior officer like a colonel to occupy the WSO seat as MC, overseeing all mission phases regardless of the pilot’s junior rank (e.g., captain). That, paired with what we know happened later, points to a broader mission.

The other element is the scale of the operation. The U.S. military didn’t just “find an abandoned airstrip south of Isfahan.” The airstrip where we believe the U.S. attempted to establish the FOB was likely surveyed months in advance. U.S. Special Forces don’t just “wing it” on operations like this. The narrative being presented—such as the claim that the MC-130J “got stuck”—suggests something that Special Operations planners simply don’t do.

As far as we know, the MC-130J Commando II aircraft that transported the troops—and likely the “Little Bird” helicopters—sustained damage from Iranian attacks, which prevented them from taking off. The shrapnel damage seen in images supports that. We don’t believe they crash-landed or were shot down. The only evidence cited for that is the bent rotor blades on one of the engines in aftermath photos. But the MC-130J is not a standard C-130, which uses four-blade steel propellers. The Special Forces variant uses six-bladed Dowty R391 composite propellers, built with a carbon-fiber structure rather than metal. The bent propellers are most likely the result of the resin matrix softening—effectively “melting”—under extreme conditions. Other images support this, as the propellers appear to shred and snap rather than cleanly break.

Why Isfahan? The obvious explanation is the collection of nuclear material, as the region hosts multiple facilities such as Natanz, where enriched uranium is believed to be stored. But there are other factors. Isfahan hosts a large Jewish community, which would likely be influenced by Mossad and CIA operations. The airstrip was not chosen at the last minute to rescue a WSO, with massive assets assembled on the fly. It’s rumored the airstrip had previously been surveyed by Israeli Shaldag (Unit 5101), an elite Israeli Air Force special operations unit.

As for staging: at roughly the same time, Iran struck Camp Buehring in Kuwait, which is believed to have been the staging ground for the operation. This suggests Iran had prior knowledge—and reinforces the idea that the base was tied to the American operation.

There are several other inconsistencies in the U.S. narrative: how a badly injured WSO managed to climb a mountain, why the extraction point was established in Isfahan when evacuation to Kuwait or Iraq was possible, and so on.

Continued in the next post

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➡️What Happened over the Weekend. Part 2.

One final point—and this is a bit of a tinfoil-hat moment, as usual: who, or rather what, shot down the F-15E? One detail that went largely unnoticed on Saturday evening was a report from Iranian sources that fighter jets had taken off. We didn’t pay much attention at the time, but in hindsight it may be significant. Maybe earlier reports were missed, or simply not made. But if Iran had intelligence that the Americans were planning something, it would make sense to risk deploying the Su-35s they “don’t have,” using long-range radar and data-linked missiles to target an F-15E carrying a colonel as mission commander. - This, of course is pure speculation ☝️

One thing is certain: whether the CSAR mission prematurely triggered a larger Special Operations effort to retrieve uranium stockpiles, or whether this was all part of a single planned operation, it failed. The Iranians have now learned a great deal about how the U.S. plans to infiltrate—and the U.S. has likely lost access to an airstrip it intended to use for a high-profile raid.

The U.S. narrative, of course, is one of “we leave no man behind”—and it reads like the outline of a Hollywood blockbuster.

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Shiraz, in southern Iran, was hit during a coordinated wave of U.S.–Israeli airstrikes across multiple cities.

Targets in the city included a power facility—triggering outages across parts of Fars Province—and an industrial/electronics site linked to SA-Iran. The strikes left sections of the city without electricity, directly impacting civilians.

Shiraz was not an isolated case. Similar strikes were reported in Tehran, Isfahan, Ahvaz, and Bandar Abbas, pointing to a broad, pre-planned campaign.

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