🇺🇸 Supreme Leader Trump shared an "article" about how "Iran tried to interfere in US elections."

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RT's Saman Kojouri REPORTS FROM TEHRAN

Confirms targets of US-Israeli strikes, including:

— Supreme National Security Council HQ
— Ministry of Intelligence
— Atomic Energy Org. of Iran

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🇺🇸 Lindsey "Gay For War" Graham felt happy in his pants when he heard Trump attacked.

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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 One person was killed in Abu Dhabi as a result of an Iranian missile strike, according to the UAE Ministry of Defense.

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🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 Repeated explosions reported in Qatar and Abu Dhabi!

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🇺🇸 Time to repost this.

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🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇲Analysis:

In a geopolitical context where the U.S. and Israel have initiated a campaign—Operation Epic Fury (U.S.) and Operation Lion’s Roar (Israel)—with the explicit goal of regime change, the situation has moved beyond traditional "deterrence" into a high-stakes struggle for survival.

Here is an hypothetical scenario analysis of the escalation and the strategic odds for Iran.

🔸The Scenario: "Escalate to De-escalate".
Iran’s strategic doctrine in this scenario relies on the concept of asymmetric escalation. Facing a direct threat to its government, Tehran's goal is to make the cost of continuing the war so astronomical that the U.S. and Israel are forced to accept a ceasefire rather than pursue a total collapse of the state.

1⃣ The Retaliatory "First Wave"
Iran utilizes its vast missile and drone inventory (the largest in the Middle East) to saturate Israeli and American defenses.
Targeting: Rather than just military bases, Iran targets critical infrastructure: desalination plants in Israel, oil refineries in the Gulf (Aramco facilities), and the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
The Intent: By crippling the global oil supply (leading to an immediate spike in gas prices toward $200/barrel), Iran aims to trigger a global economic panic that pressures Washington to stop.

2⃣ Closing the Chokepoints
The IRGC Navy deploys "swarm" tactics and smart mines in the Strait of Hormuz. By effectively closing the strait—through which 20% of the world's oil flows—Iran creates a hostage situation for the global economy.

3⃣ Total Proxy Mobilization
The "Axis of Resistance" (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq/Syria) launches a coordinated multifront war. Hezbollah’s 150,000+ rockets are used to overwhelm the Iron Dome, forcing Israel to choose between a ground invasion of Lebanon or defending its own heartland.

🔸Analysis of the "Odds of Victory"
"Victory" for Iran in this scenario isn't a military conquest of the U.S. or Israel; it is regime survival.

The Odds:
➡️Short-term (Success in De-escalation): 40-50%
If Iran can cause enough economic pain (oil prices) and military casualties within the first 72 hours, the U.S. public may demand an end to "another forever war."

➡️Long-term (Sustaining the Regime): 15-20%
If the U.S. and Israel are committed to a "weeks-long" campaign as suggested by current deployments, Iran's command-and-control infrastructure will eventually degrade. Without proven air defense efficiency or a functional economy, the leadership faces internal collapse regardless of its external wins.

➡️Iran’s "Escalate to De-escalate" strategy is a dangerous calculation. It relies on the assumption that the U.S. is "war-weary" which is definitely the opposite. The US and Israel are blood thirsty and survive on wars throughout their entire existence. By targeting U.S. assets and the global economy, Iran risks turning a "regime change" operation into a total war where the U.S. feels it cannot back down without losing global credibility.

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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Several explosions were reported near Abu Dhabi’s main airport, according to Reuters.

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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 Air Defense activity, reportedly in Erbil earlier today.

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🇦🇪 Long cues of vehicles in Dubai as people leave the city.

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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 U.S. MQ-4C Triton is squawking emergency code 7700 after conducting ISR over the Gulf of Oman. We’ll see if it begins returning to home base.

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 BREAKING: Board of PEACE launches first WAR! 🤣

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Iribnews: Announcement No. 1 from the Government Information Council after the aggression of the Zionist regime and the USA against Iran

🔹This morning, the Zionist regime, in collusion with the US government, attacked and invaded the sacred soil of our country. This attack, which occurred once again during negotiations, shows that their goal is to undermine the territorial integrity and unity of our dear Iran.

🔹The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, all ministries, and all executive and service agencies stand firmly alongside the people and will carry forward the country's daily affairs with full capacity.

🔹The government, understanding the critical situation of the country from long ago, has taken all necessary measures, and the people should not worry about any shortages or deficiencies.

🔹Essential goods, fuel, and medicine are abundantly available in the country.

🔹24-hour medical centers and pharmacies, including selected ones, will continue their activities. Banks will also continue to provide services. For the convenience of the people, universities and schools will remain closed until further notice.

🔹Necessary arrangements have been made for people's travel and the possibility of presence in other cities, and we ask our dear compatriots to act with complete calm and patience.

🔹Dear Iran is at a historic moment. Enemies will spread ominous messages and large psychological operations. Today is a test of national resistance for Iranians, and despite all grievances and resentments, we stand united and in unison against foreign aggression.

🔹The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, emphasizing that it will defend this land with all its might alongside the powerful military forces, asks our people not to pay attention to rumors and to follow news from official sources.

🔹Each government agency has also been tasked with regularly issuing announcements to explain how they will provide services in these conditions and to inform the people.

🔹Dear people of Iran; the government is with you and considers itself committed to protecting Iran and Iranians.

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🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 The MQ-4C just seems to be flying in a straight line towards the Saudi border. When it had an emergency last week it returned to it's home base in the UAE.

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🇮🇷🖕🇺🇸 Chants of “Death to America” echo through the shrine of Imam Hussein.

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🇪🇺🇪🇺Von der Lying surprised Iran actually dares to defend itself.

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