🧸 When does a bear market begin?

As we know, Bitcoin has a classic cycle that is updated every 4 years and this has happened more than once; the pattern has been working since the very creation of Bitcoin.

The classic cycle is 4 years of growth (bull market) and a year of correction (bear market).

No matter how strange it may seem, there is also a point. Every 4 years, Forbes publishes a cover with a hyped market participant.
In 2018 - CZ (CEO Binance)
In 2022 - SBF (ceo FTX)
In 2025 - Michael Saylor (MicroStrategy)
And each time these people were put on the covers right in the midst of a market turn into a bearish phase.

I put the release dates of the covers on the chart and everything fits very well😨

Everyone has a friend like that

☕ Morning market review

Good Sunday morning everyone!

🪙BTC $86,035
🪙ETH 2,803$

Fear Index 10
Altseason index 24
Bitcoin dominance59.07%

Growth leader: ZEC (+17.4%)
Top Fall:2Z (-9.0%)
⚰️Liquidations: $217 million

We received a small setback after a bloody week, and there is still no reaction. We are waiting to see what next week will bring us and hope for a buyer.

🔐Upcoming major unlocks this week: November 24 - 30

$XPL - $18.13M
$WCT - $14.84M
$KMNO - $11.22M
$H - $10.78M
$OP - $9.80M
$ZORA - $8.68M
$UDS - $6.91M

👀Based on historical data$BTCwill not update ATH until 2028

New ATH expected between January 2028 and January 2029🤫

☕ Morning market review

🪙BTC $86,977
🪙ETH 2,832$

Fear Index 12
Altseason index 23
Bitcoin dominance59.13%

Growth leader: CC +13%
Leader of the decline:STRK-9%
⚰️Liquidations: $199 million

On Monday I would refuse to make any decisions at all. Growth on Sunday evening usually did not please us with anything afterwards. Let's see how it goes this time.

🚨In the third quarter, the largest investment funds, including BlackRock, Vanguard and Fidelity, actively sold off shares of Strategy (MSTR)

JPMorgan previously warned that MSTR shares could be removed from major indexes such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100.

👀Second weekly close below the 50-week moving average

Bad news for the bulls.

🐻$3.6 billion of liquidations as BTC rises to $92,000

The liquidation map clearly shows a large cluster of shorts of over $3.6 billion that will be liquidated if Bitcoin reaches $92,000.

This is an important liquidity area, and the market will often gravitate to where a large number of liquidations can be collected. If BTC continues to move towards $92,000 it could trigger a strong upward momentum.

📈Bitcoin volatility has increased sharply

BTC-volatility jumped to the level of 60. This has not happened since the times when the market was still actively driven by options, before the advent of spot ETFs. This may be a signal that the market is returning to more aggressive, “optional” dynamics.

An increase in volatility often precedes strong movements. If options begin to draw liquidity and move the market, we can get an excellent start to a new upward movement.

😈 Déjà vu again

🪙Ether is trading around $2,840 and has confidently rebounded from the $2,760–$2,785 block order that we noted yesterday

Now the price is expected to return to the level of $2,800 to collect local liquidity - this will create a more stable base and allow the market to accumulate volume for further growth.

To continue the upward movement, it is important to consolidate above $2,900–$2,950. In this case, Ether will be able to move towards liquidity in the $3,020–$3,080 zone.

💎Eric Balchunas reported that 5 spot ETFs for altcoins will be released in the next 6 days

— Grayscale’s Dogecoin ETF launches today.
— ETFs for XRP, DOGE and LINK from Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton are also expected.

The market is preparing for a series of new listings.

🪙Bitcoin shows impulse growth

BTC has risen 3% in recent hours and is trading around $88,600. Now the price is within the daily imbalance $87,400–$88,900.

To continue the upward movement, it is important to see consolidation above this zone - then we can expect growth to $93,700, where a large accumulation of liquidations is concentrated.

Here's a reminder of what a bearish trend looks like for experienced investors who accumulate crypto at low prices:

☕ Morning market review

Bloody Monday did not happen, we will see how the market behaves further.

🪙BTC $87,396
🪙ETH $2,900

Fear Index 15
Altseason index 21
Bitcoin dominance58.8%

Growth leader: KAS +24%
Leader of the fall:M -7%
⚰️Liquidations: $338 million

The market will surprise everyone; people in fear often do not see the big picture. This is normal, but you shouldn't let your emotions guide your decisions.

🤑$SUIfinally shows a confident rebound

RSI on the 3D and 1D timeframes has reached its lowest levels since 2023 - it has not been in such an oversold state for a long time.

🎯Target No. 1 - zone $1.9–$2.2.

Macro target$SUI now - 3$👀

Yes, all the goals were nicer and bigger not so long ago. But the market crash on October 10th took away the rosy prospects in many respects.

😳$HYPE and $SUI are two of the strongest projects of the current cycle, but neither of them reached the $20 billion market capitalization

For comparison: in the last cycle, even $UNI had 23 billion, and projects such as $SOL (74 billion), $DOT (53 billion), $BNB (109 billion) and $ADA (90 billion) rose much higher.

Very weak cycle...😕

👀I am looking at open interest from October 10

Open interest (OI) dropped by $29.7 billion per day, and there is no particularly active influx of new funds, despite the fact that we see a slight increase.

That’s why the picture turns out to be very ambiguous and that’s why I don’t want to rush into long trades. But there will be another weekend in the USA, which means there will be even less liquidity and there is a possibility of price manipulation in any direction.

🪙Yesterday Bitcoin added 3% and is trading around $86,900

Now the price is in the imbalance zone of $86,700–$88,200, from where it is logical to expect a reversal attempt.

Scenario without changes: I want to see an overlap of this range and after that a return to growth.

To continue the upward movement, BTC needs to recover and consolidate above $88,200–$88,400—the zone of local breakdown of the structure. Then the path to liquidity in the $90,000–$92,000 area will open.