This is the worst Q4 for BTC since 2018 so far 😕

☕ Morning market review

The market is really shitty, they put a lot of pressure on the price of BTC.

🪙BTC $95,449
🪙ETH 3,193$

Fear Index 15
Altseason index 31
Bitcoin dominance58.93%

Growth leader: ICP +10.47%
Leader of the decline: STRK -17.51%
⚰️Liquidations: $1.02 billion

We removed the GAP, but so far the BTC chart is completely weak. Although some altos show strength. There is still a chance for a reversal; this week will be decisive.

🤔Arthur Hayes said in a new essay that the fall in BTC is not due to fundamental factors, but to a decrease in liquidity - flows into ETFs and DAT have noticeably decreased.

According to his forecast, Bitcoin may correct to $80–85 thousand, but after the US stock market recovers and liquidity returns, BTC has a chance to rise to $200–250 thousand by the end of the year.

🪙Cryptocurrency skeptic Peter Schiff said that the fall of Bitcoin relative to gold proves the inconsistency of the idea of “digital gold”

BTC recently dropped below $90,000, which is minus 28.5% of the ATH. But most importantly, in relation to gold, which confidently remains above $4000, Bitcoin has fallen in price by about 40%.

❗️According to Schiff, this shows that the myth of “digital gold” does not work, and investors who believed in this concept may begin to sell BTC en masse.

🪙By BTC locally

Bitcoin fell by 7% during the day, removed liquidity by $91,600 and tested the daily imbalance of $91,800–$88,400. The asset is now trading around $91,300 and is already showing a confident reaction from the lower border of the zone.

To continue growth, you need to gain a foothold above the local imbalance of $93,200–$94,200. A breakdown of this area will open the way to liquidity of $98,000–$101,000.

❗️The market looks ready for recovery - all that remains is to wait for a confident consolidation above the first resistance zones.

🐻Anacryptoquant analysts expect BTC drawdown to $87,500

$87,500 is a support level that has held since March.

🪙By ETH locally

Ether is trading around $3,095 and is growing confidently after the removal of liquidity in the $3,040–$2,900 zone. The price is moving towards a key level that will determine the further trend.

To continue the upward movement, you need to gain a foothold above the structure break at $3,200 - only a breakdown of this high will open the way up.

❗️If consolidated, we can expect a movement towards liquidity in the area of ​​$3,260–$3,360 and above.

🚀Starknet hints at an upcoming announcement.

"Privacy on Starknet" 🤫

💭Here's why, in my opinion, going to $85,000 before a major rebound looks logical:

If you build a channel, the $83,000–$87,000 reversal zone perfectly coincides with its lower border 👌

When the price reaches this level, the moonboys will start shouting joyfully: “We hit the support of the channel - further only ATH! 🚀

A rebound is really expected there, but instead of reaching a new high, the market will most likely form a lower high and then break through support📉

This channel could be the perfect trap for anyone who blindly believes in endless growth😏

Meanwhile, crypto holders waiting for a new bullrun:

☕ Morning market review

Again a correction from growth, this time we won’t go update the loi?

🪙BTC $91,875
🪙ETH $3,096

Fear Index 16
Altseason index 28
Bitcoin dominance58.95%

Growth leader: STRK +26%
Top Fall: XMR-10%
⚰️Liquidations: $285 million

The reversal after such a strong fall will not be v-shaped. The best thing we can get is a clearing of the trade and the formation of a higher loy.

🪙Michael Saylor assures: even a fall in Bitcoin by 80-90% will not be a problem for Strategy - the company initially prepared for such scenarios.

He also noted an interesting trend: BTC volatility is gradually decreasing - from 80% in 2020 to about 50% now. According to Saylor, it's not the funds; the market itself is becoming more mature.

Over the long term, he expects Bitcoin to trend toward levels equivalent to about 1.5x the volatility and return of the S&P 500.

So what do you think - is it time to put up $20,000 buckets for BTC?😅

🪙By BTC locally

Despite the upward reaction from the $88,550 level, the market still looks weak - there has been no strong rebound from the key zone. This may lead to the level being retested again.

If the retest takes place, I will enter a position from $88,550. Next, I will wait for a movement to $93,850 and take a position if the price consolidates higher.

We have already seen a strong decline from $93,850, and this scenario could happen again. Therefore, I do not open trades “in the air”, but wait for a clear entry point.

🪙Bitcoin dominance continues to decline and has already confirmed a downward trend after a prolonged rise

To strengthen the signal, it is advisable to see a retest of the 59.52% level and further movement to the ~57% zone.

If the indicator drops to 57%, altcoins may show local positive and grow by 10-15%.

Right now altcoins look weak and are essentially waiting for a strong trigger for growth. Such a trigger could be a further decline in BTC dominance.

🚀$STRK almost doubled while $BTC lost $12k

Something really strange is happening😏

1️⃣March–August 2024: drop by 33%
2️⃣January–April 2025: drop by 32%
3️⃣October–November 2025: now – –29%. If we reach -33%, we get the area of ​​84–85k$.

And as you know, the zone 83–87k$ is my key support area, from which BTC is highly likely to show a strong rebound 😏

☕ Morning market review

Looks like a dead cat bounce, where is the bottom?

🪙BTC $92,089
🪙ETH 3,032$

Fear Index 15
Altseason index 27
Bitcoin dominance59.24%

Growth leader: STRK +15.48%
Leader of the fall:AB-15.16%
⚰️Liquidations: $609 million

It already looks like the sale of loys, without breaking the descending structure for now. If you want safe entrances, you won’t get them now, the market is different.

🎰Trader 0x5d2f has been short Bitcoin for more than six months for $113 million, with $24 million in unrealized profits. Over the entire period, he earned $51 million, of which $9.2 million came from funding fees.

Funding fees is a mechanism for perpetual futures: traders pay each other commissions depending on the balance of positions. When the majority is long, the shorts get paid.