🪙By ETH locally

Ether is trading around $3,400 and remains in a narrow sideways range of $3,650–$3,350. Now the price is again approaching its lower limit, where the order block is located at $3,360–$3,250.

❗️The optimal scenario is a breakout of the lower border of the sidebar with a test of the order block. In this zone, I expect an upward reaction and a reversal towards $3,650.

If the level of $3,250 does not hold, a deeper rollback to the liquidity area at $3,000 is possible

🪙Bitcoin fell below $101,000, having dropped by 2% on the day, and is already moving towards the first liquidity pools in the $99,200–$98,000 zone

This is where many liquidations are concentrated - the same squeeze that I mentioned earlier before the end of the shutdown. Below this area there is an important imbalance of $99,500–$95,700, where I expect the fall to slow down and a stop to form before a possible new wave of growth.

🚨The market is emerging from an overheated state - the shoulder reset phase is already close to completion

After the events of October 10, deleveraging began: speculators reduce risks, liquidations continue, and excess leverage is washed away. Over the past 3 months, open interest has decreased by 21% - almost the same as in September 2024 and April 2025, when the drops were 24% and 29%.

Now the market is approaching these levels again, and historically it was after such “cleansings” that upward reversals began.

First pain - then growth.

The same altcoin season that investors were waiting for in 2025:

(it lasted a week and only worked for Zcash)

📊 Institutional investors and retail traders sold $869,860,000 worth of Bitcoin ETFs yesterday, the second-largest net outflow in history.

As for the Ethereum ETF, there was an outflow of -$259,720,000 on the same day.

☕ Morning market review

We updated the cue ball loy, as I warned you.

🪙BTC $97,440
🪙ETH 3,213$

Fear Index 22
Altseason index 32
Bitcoin dominance59.67%
⚰️Liquidations: $1.1 billion

I'm scared, just like you. The market is my bread, and for the sake of truth, they make good money on the bear. So the bull market is now the priority scenario.

🪙By BTC locally

Bitcoin fell by 7% and is trading around $97,300, having entered the daily order block of $97,400–$93,300, where large liquidations are concentrated.

I expect a short puncture to the $95,800 area before a possible reversal. To confirm, you need to break the structure on junior TFs and consolidate above $99,800–$100,200 - this will open the way to growth into the liquidity zone of $102,000–$103,500.

❗️As long as BTC is inside the order block, the market is in uncertainty. Going below $93,300 will give way to liquidity at $92,000.

🪙Changpeng Zhao has again become a hero of crypto-conspiracy theorists - the community is looking for hidden signals in his tweets and comparing the numbers from his posts with the movement of Bitcoin.

— In March, when BTC was falling to $84,000, CZ wrote that his book was 114,000 words - a month later the price actually skyrocketed to $114,000.
— On November 8, at a price of about $103,000, he had already mentioned 97,000 words, after which Bitcoin dropped to $97,000.

Two coincidences in a row fueled interest: if 114,000 and 97,000 “played,” then what does the number 300 pages mean? Some joke about Bitcoin at $300,000, others about the dramatic drop to $300.

🐻Short-term holders sold 29,400 BTC worth $2.8 billion over the past 24 hours, and did so at a loss, notes CryptoQuant

Such fixation of losses usually occurs during emotional sales and often precedes the formation of a local bottom.

🪙17 years ago Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in an email newsletter:


💭The Bitcoin system proves to be socially useful and valuable, so that node operators will feel like they are making a useful contribution to the world through their efforts (similar to various projects where people volunteer their computing resources for good causes)

In this case, it seems to me that simple altruism may be enough to keep the network working properly

This is very attractive from a libertarian perspective, if we can get it right. Although I'm better with code than with words

(c) Satoshi Nakamoto

🪙By ETH locally

Ether has decreased by 10% over the past 24 hours and is now trading around $3,245. The price has not touched the liquidity pool at $3,000 and is already showing an upward reaction, moving towards the imbalance zone of $3,360–$3,270 formed yesterday.

The key point is the reaction within this imbalance. If ETH stabilizes above $3,360, we can expect an increase to liquidity of $3,480–$3,600.

❗️If after the zone test there is a rollback and the price does not stay higher, a second downward move is likely, removing liquidity from $3,000.

🍔Altcoin capitalization has not reached the peak of 2021

At the moment, the market capitalization of altcoins, excluding stablecoins, has not yet exceeded the all-time high reached in 2021.

💭My expectations:

🪙BTC: short-term pullback up

$BTC.D: decline similar to what happened in June-September📉
🔴Target 1 — 54.5% (December 2024 Low)

STRK>BTC😅

☕ Morning market review

All weekend I'm waiting for a side event on the majors, the alts will shoot in places.

🪙BTC 96,120$
🪙ETH 3 $166

Fear Index 16
Altseason index 32
Bitcoin dominance59.67%

Growth leader: ZEC+34%
Leader of the decline: ICP-10%
⚰️Liquidations: $673 million

The fear index dropped to 16. The last time this happened was in April 2025, when BTC was $75k. We are at the bottom, even if we take a couple of thousand even lower, then we can only go up.

🪙Bitcoin moved sluggishly yesterday and remains within the daily order block of $97,400–$93,300, now trading around $96,200

To resume growth, it is important to gain a foothold above the structure break level of $97,300. Above is the imbalance zone of $97,500–$98,600, which can give a pullback. However, a consolidation above $98,600 will open the way to liquidity in the $100,000–$101,500 region.

If BTC does not hold above the imbalance, consolidation is likely until Monday.

👤 FUD regarding Sailor's sale #BTC

Yesterday there were rumors: “MicroStrategy has probably started selling BTC.”

As confirmation, Arkham showed transfers of BTC from Strategy wallets to new wallets.

In response, Michael Saylor only replied: “HODL.”

Arkham themselves later reported that the transfers were part of an ongoing change of custodian. These transactions do not indicate sales of BTC.

Purely a hoax that attracted attention and, of course, someone believed and sold the assets.

🪙By ETH locally

Ether is trading around $3,180 and is setting the stage for a reversal after a sharp fall. Now the price is heading towards the imbalance zone of $3,270–$3,360, formed at the last strait.

❗️The key scenario is to wait for the test of this area and the price reaction. If ETH stabilizes above $3,360, we can expect a move towards the liquidity pool in the $3,480-$3,600 region.

If, after the imbalance test, a downward reaction appears and the price does not stay higher, a repeat downward move towards liquidity at $3,000 is likely.

Only 44.4% of investors now expect the Fed to continue cutting rates in December. At the beginning of November there were 67% of them, and a month ago - more than 94%.

It is believed that easing monetary policy generally supports the growth of risk assets, including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

🔥4 billion liquidations nearby

There is now a huge cluster of shorts of over $4 billion that will be liquidated if BTC reaches $100,800.

In fact, one strong green candle in the +5% area can simply wipe out all the bears and give a charge to the upward movement due to massive liquidations.

Such clusters at the top are the fuel for growth. If the market reaches this zone, we may see a very sharp impulse.

☕ Morning market review

So far, the sidearm is working on weekends, and the alto is shooting.

🪙BTC $96,003
🪙ETH 3 $213

Fear Index 18
Altseason index 32
Bitcoin dominance59.38%

Growth leader: STRK (+33.5%)
Leader of the fall: ZEC (-5.8%)
⚰️Liquidations: $151 million

I don’t rule out a final stake somewhere in the GAP area of $91-92k, but this will be the final for the bears and the beginning of the bulls’ journey. I think the Santa rally is ahead.