When I suggested to a friend to invest in promising altcoins, and they made -20% in a day

Market situation

🩸A new day - and a new wave of liquidations

Over the past 24 hours, traders have lost
$1.37 billion, almost all of it via longs.

🪙BTC fell to $104,000
🪙ETH – up to $3475
🪙SOL — $157
🪙TON - below $2

Altcoins are falling rapidly and already look like “shields” ready to burst.

🎰The “AI Trading Showdown” experiment has ended, where six AI models traded crypto with a deposit of $10,000

Results of the week:
🔴Qwen – $12,231
🔴 DeepSeek — $10,489
🔴 Claude — $6,912
🔴 Grok — $5,469
🔴 Gemini — $4,329
🔴 ChatGPT — $3,733

❗️DeepSeek, having lost half of its capital in a week, lost its leadership to Qwen.
Grok and Claude went into the red, although they were in the TOP at the beginning. Gemini and ChatGPT still maintain losses at 60–65%

So don’t be upset, even artificial intelligence is not able to win in this game😂

🪙Bitcoin continues to decline

Overnight, BTC fell another 3% and is trading around $104,000, approaching the daily buyer interest zone - order block $103,000 - $102,000.

🐻The current scenario remains bearish: the asset is gradually reaching its goals, and if support is broken, it may go even lower - to $103,000 - $100,000.

❗️As long as the price is below $108,000, sellers retain the initiative. To change the structure, you need to confidently consolidate above this mark.

🪙🪙ETH/BTC Review

The pair dropped to the support zone of 0.0330–0.0328, where a buyback was previously observed. If the price is maintained here, a reversal and restoration of the share of ether to bitcoin is possible.

❗️The growth of ETH/BTC usually signals an increase in interest in altcoinsand the flow of capital from BTC to alts. To confirm the growth scenario, it is important to consolidate above 0.0350 - then we can expect activation of the alt-market.

👤 Arthur Hayes believes BTC is leaning toward testing $100,000, questioning whether that support will hold

Peter Schiff wrote that Bitcoiners are denying reality instead of smelling tulips (hinting at tulip mania - the first recorded financial bubble of 1634-1637)

Rectober?😵

🪙Solana is gaining momentum

For the fifth day in a row, inflows into the spot SOL-ETF have been recorded - yesterday alone, investors contributed another $70 million.

❗️Against the backdrop of outflows from BTC and ETH ETF (–$186 million and –$135 million, respectively), this clearly shows institutional interest:large players are gradually accumulating positions. This does not guarantee immediate growth, but if the market turns, Solana may be the one to shoot harder than others.

🪙BTC - global review

A turning point for Bitcoin.

If it breaks through the 50-week moving average with consolidation, then turn out the lights⚰️

😤Cor-alta since Trump took office

🔴XRP: -19% 🔴TON: -54%
🔴SOL: -30% 🔴DOT: -55%
🔴DOGE: -51% 🔴UNI: -60%
🔴ADA: -41% 🔴PEPE: -61%
🔴SUI: -51% 🔴ENA: -58%
🔴AVAX: -51%

How do Zcash holders look today compared to other crypto investors:

😂Biden's war on crypto is officially over

The White House said Trump had "finished another war."
They just didn’t clarify that we are talking about the capitulation of the crypto market - within a day:

➖440,810 traders liquidated
worth $1.8 billion
➖Fear index - extreme
➖BTC in the moment - $98,900, ETH - $3,055

🪙Where will Bitcoin go?

During the day, BTC dropped by 7.2% and is now trading around $101,400. The price has approached the first support zone of the higher timeframe - the daily imbalance of $100,000–$99,000, where previously they were actively buying.

After the last spill, a local imbalance of $101,800–$102,200 formed, which is now restraining growth. The market has already tested this area and received a downward pullback.

❗️Basic scenario - movement lower into the daily imbalance, collection of liquidity at $98,100 and a possible reversal with an attempt to restore the uptrend. I don’t see any demand from buyers yet.

🪙Aether is restored after a spill

During the day, ETH dropped by 15%, completely closed the imbalance of the higher timeframe $3,300–$3,100, and then rebounded by 6.1%. The asset is currently trading around $3,390, showing an attempt to return to the upward trend.

After the fall, a 4-hour imbalance of $3,460–$3,300 formed, which became a key resistance. While the price is below this zone, it is premature to talk about renewed growth.

❗️A consolidation above $3,460 will open the way to liquidity pools in the area of ​​$3,900.

😤There is a meeting on Trump tariffs right now

And in another hour Trump himself is due to speak,
topic: US economy.

We need to see consolidation above 108k BTC and 3500 ETH - otherwise the current movement may simply become a rebound.

😁 Donald Trump: Cryptocurrency reduces dependence on the dollar and occupies a significant place in the modern economy.

“We strive to make the United States the center of Bitcoin, the crypto industry and a leader in the field of artificial intelligence.

— If we don’t take up the development of the crypto industry, China will.

The market has turned green 📈

☕ Morning market review

It looks like a reversal, but as always there are nuances.

🪙BTC 103,516$
🪙ETH 3 $393

Fear Index 27
Altseason index 37
Bitcoin dominance60.59%

Growth leader: ZK +27%
Leader of the fall: DASH-16%
😱 Liquidations $314 million


💭Now is the time to place bets and take risks at the same time. Futures today are contraindicated if you do not deal with risks professionally. Spot is the best solution.

🪙By Bitcoin

BTC is trading around $103,100, gradually decreasing towards the 4-hour imbalance of $102,700 - $102,300 - the zone of buyer interest. Here, the withdrawal of local liquidity and the formation of an upward reaction is expected.

Base scenario: a short entry into the imbalance zone with a return above $103,500 and the beginning of growth.

🐻As long as the price is below $104,500, the structure remains bearish. Consolidation above this area will open the way to the liquidity zone around $107,300.