☕ Morning market review

The cue ball is in the flat, and the alts are in the blood, everything is stable.

🪙BTC 107,478$
🪙ETH 3 $712

Fear Index 36
Altseason index 27
Bitcoin dominance60.23%

Growth leader: ASTER +11%
Leader of the decline: SPX-17%
😱 Liquidations $103 million


💭Don’t forget, the main task of the sideline is to wear out retail and all the players who came here for quick results. Therefore, it is important to maintain healthy optimism.

🤝🤝The White House officially announced a new trade and economic agreement with China

Main conditions:
China:
🔴 Eliminates export restrictions on rare earth metals and critical minerals needed by American industries.
🔴 Stops the supply of fentanyl precursors and introduces global control over their circulation.
🔴 Freezes retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products (soybeans, corn, meat, dairy products).
🔴 Commits to purchasing 12 million tons of American soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million tons annually from 2026 to 2028, and also resumes imports of sorghum and timber.
🔴 Allows US chipmaker Nexperia to resume operations and ends investigations against semiconductor companies.

USA:
🔴 Tariffs on Chinese imports are being reduced from 20% to 10% from November 10.
🔴 New trade restrictions and investigations are suspended for a year.
🔴 Extend tariff benefits under Section 301 until the end of 2026.

The agreement is aimed at reducing tensions and restoring stability in world trade🤝

🪙Bitcoin continues to decline

Overnight, the asset lost 3.2% and is trading around $107,200. A 4-hour imbalance of $108,000 – $108,700 has formed on the chart, where a short-term pullback is possible.

❗️The main scenario is a test of this zone followed by a continuation of the fall to $106,000 - $104,500.
As long as the price remains below $108,700, the market structure remains bearish. Consolidation above will be the first signal of a trend change.

😳Will VTS repeat the scenario of 2020?

Then the market collapsed due to COVID and returned to growth within 4 months.
Now there is a record liquidation, the volume is 20 times higher than then

📈 And now, after just 4 weeks, BTC is already above the breakdown zone again. If the story really rhymes, the goal is the same, just different zeros: $280k

Do we believe in such theories from Twitter? 🤔

📊Net inflows and outflows of spot ETFs over the past week:

🟢 Bitcoin ETF (BTC) = -$798,950,000.
🟢 Ethereum ETF (ETH) = +$15,960,000.
🟢 Solana ETF (SOL) = +$199,210,000.
🟢 Hedera ETF (HBAR) = +$44,390,000.
🟢 Litecoin ETF (LTC) = +$719,970.

🐻Minus $600 million per hour

The crypto market has shaken up again -
liquidated $600,000,000 worth of longs in just one hour

The cue ball sank, the violas fell,
and the exchanges unanimously turned on the liquidation vacuum cleaner.

🪙Global overview of Bitcoin

Everything is so bad with $BTC that I don’t even know what can save it🤷‍♂️

Looks like the top of the cycle - very similar to the one in 2021.

🔴Bearish divergence on RSI
🔴Bearish divergence on Stoch RSI
🔴Similar red monthly candle at its peak
🔴The same 35 months from the bottom of the cycle to the top

⚠️Be careful, bears are coming!

When I suggested to a friend to invest in promising altcoins, and they made -20% in a day

Market situation

🩸A new day - and a new wave of liquidations

Over the past 24 hours, traders have lost
$1.37 billion, almost all of it via longs.

🪙BTC fell to $104,000
🪙ETH – up to $3475
🪙SOL — $157
🪙TON - below $2

Altcoins are falling rapidly and already look like “shields” ready to burst.

🎰The “AI Trading Showdown” experiment has ended, where six AI models traded crypto with a deposit of $10,000

Results of the week:
🔴Qwen – $12,231
🔴 DeepSeek — $10,489
🔴 Claude — $6,912
🔴 Grok — $5,469
🔴 Gemini — $4,329
🔴 ChatGPT — $3,733

❗️DeepSeek, having lost half of its capital in a week, lost its leadership to Qwen.
Grok and Claude went into the red, although they were in the TOP at the beginning. Gemini and ChatGPT still maintain losses at 60–65%

So don’t be upset, even artificial intelligence is not able to win in this game😂

🪙Bitcoin continues to decline

Overnight, BTC fell another 3% and is trading around $104,000, approaching the daily buyer interest zone - order block $103,000 - $102,000.

🐻The current scenario remains bearish: the asset is gradually reaching its goals, and if support is broken, it may go even lower - to $103,000 - $100,000.

❗️As long as the price is below $108,000, sellers retain the initiative. To change the structure, you need to confidently consolidate above this mark.

🪙🪙ETH/BTC Review

The pair dropped to the support zone of 0.0330–0.0328, where a buyback was previously observed. If the price is maintained here, a reversal and restoration of the share of ether to bitcoin is possible.

❗️The growth of ETH/BTC usually signals an increase in interest in altcoinsand the flow of capital from BTC to alts. To confirm the growth scenario, it is important to consolidate above 0.0350 - then we can expect activation of the alt-market.

👤 Arthur Hayes believes BTC is leaning toward testing $100,000, questioning whether that support will hold

Peter Schiff wrote that Bitcoiners are denying reality instead of smelling tulips (hinting at tulip mania - the first recorded financial bubble of 1634-1637)

Rectober?😵

🪙Solana is gaining momentum

For the fifth day in a row, inflows into the spot SOL-ETF have been recorded - yesterday alone, investors contributed another $70 million.

❗️Against the backdrop of outflows from BTC and ETH ETF (–$186 million and –$135 million, respectively), this clearly shows institutional interest:large players are gradually accumulating positions. This does not guarantee immediate growth, but if the market turns, Solana may be the one to shoot harder than others.

🪙BTC - global review

A turning point for Bitcoin.

If it breaks through the 50-week moving average with consolidation, then turn out the lights⚰️

😤Cor-alta since Trump took office

🔴XRP: -19% 🔴TON: -54%
🔴SOL: -30% 🔴DOT: -55%
🔴DOGE: -51% 🔴UNI: -60%
🔴ADA: -41% 🔴PEPE: -61%
🔴SUI: -51% 🔴ENA: -58%
🔴AVAX: -51%

How do Zcash holders look today compared to other crypto investors:

😂Biden's war on crypto is officially over

The White House said Trump had "finished another war."
They just didn’t clarify that we are talking about the capitulation of the crypto market - within a day:

➖440,810 traders liquidated
worth $1.8 billion
➖Fear index - extreme
➖BTC in the moment - $98,900, ETH - $3,055

🪙Where will Bitcoin go?

During the day, BTC dropped by 7.2% and is now trading around $101,400. The price has approached the first support zone of the higher timeframe - the daily imbalance of $100,000–$99,000, where previously they were actively buying.

After the last spill, a local imbalance of $101,800–$102,200 formed, which is now restraining growth. The market has already tested this area and received a downward pullback.

❗️Basic scenario - movement lower into the daily imbalance, collection of liquidity at $98,100 and a possible reversal with an attempt to restore the uptrend. I don’t see any demand from buyers yet.