π€What really moves the market?
The headlines can be loud: wars, oil, recessions, crises.
They frighten those who do not understand the rules of the game.
But the essence is simple - the market seeks to take money from the majority.
Main macro-alpha: everything is driven by debt.
And liquidity is the servicing and expansion of these debts.
Therefore, all assets follow liquidity.
Especially cryptocurrency - it is most sensitive to the influx of money, primarily to US liquidity.
Almost all strong growth coincided with its increase, and large corrections coincided with the withdrawal of liquidity.
The correlation is not perfect, but close to ~90%.
Geopolitics, wars or oil can influence the market at the moment,
but in the long term the price always returns to liquidity.
The historical formula is simple:
Debt grows β liquidity grows β assets grow (including crypto).
The main question is: will US liquidity continue to grow?
More about this in the next post π
The headlines can be loud: wars, oil, recessions, crises.
They frighten those who do not understand the rules of the game.
But the essence is simple - the market seeks to take money from the majority.
Main macro-alpha: everything is driven by debt.
And liquidity is the servicing and expansion of these debts.
Therefore, all assets follow liquidity.
Especially cryptocurrency - it is most sensitive to the influx of money, primarily to US liquidity.
Almost all strong growth coincided with its increase, and large corrections coincided with the withdrawal of liquidity.
The correlation is not perfect, but close to ~90%.
Geopolitics, wars or oil can influence the market at the moment,
but in the long term the price always returns to liquidity.
The historical formula is simple:
Debt grows β liquidity grows β assets grow (including crypto).
The main question is: will US liquidity continue to grow?
More about this in the next post π
π8π₯7β€5π4π―4
π₯Gold is the main indicator of future liquidity
Historically, it outpaces liquidity growth by 3β8 months.
The screenshot I showed demonstrates this well.
Each sharp rise in gold was a harbinger of an influx of liquidity into the US system.
After the metalβs growth stopped, a strong injection of liquidity usually began.
We are currently witnessing one of the strongest gold rallies in recent years.
This increases the likelihood that new historical highs in American liquidity are ahead.
We have already left QT and actually moved to QE lite.
At the same time, rising oil prices push up US bond yields, which creates pressure on the system.
Letβs not forget that in 2026, ~$8 trillion of debt will be refinanced.
Therefore, the strategy is simple: accumulate cache.
βοΈIn the long term, I am very optimistic about the market.
Historically, it outpaces liquidity growth by 3β8 months.
The screenshot I showed demonstrates this well.
Each sharp rise in gold was a harbinger of an influx of liquidity into the US system.
After the metalβs growth stopped, a strong injection of liquidity usually began.
We are currently witnessing one of the strongest gold rallies in recent years.
This increases the likelihood that new historical highs in American liquidity are ahead.
We have already left QT and actually moved to QE lite.
At the same time, rising oil prices push up US bond yields, which creates pressure on the system.
Letβs not forget that in 2026, ~$8 trillion of debt will be refinanced.
Therefore, the strategy is simple: accumulate cache.
βοΈIn the long term, I am very optimistic about the market.
β€10π―7π4π₯4π4
πͺBloomberg senior strategist again predicts that Bitcoin price could fall to $10,000
He argues that the cryptocurrency market continues to be in a long-term macroeconomic correction.
As institutional investment increases, Bitcoin becomes increasingly correlated with other risk assets, and if the markets are significantly overvalued, the cryptocurrency could come under pressure.
He argues that the cryptocurrency market continues to be in a long-term macroeconomic correction.
As institutional investment increases, Bitcoin becomes increasingly correlated with other risk assets, and if the markets are significantly overvalued, the cryptocurrency could come under pressure.
π7π7π₯6β€5π―2
π»Fonda is pulling crypto down
Since the opening of the trading session in the United States, the stock market has lost almost 1 trillion, and the crypto market began to fall after it:
BTC again fell below 70k, ETH flies to $2k
It is noteworthy that the fund does not particularly drag crypto upwards, only downwardsπ
Since the opening of the trading session in the United States, the stock market has lost almost 1 trillion, and the crypto market began to fall after it:
BTC again fell below 70k, ETH flies to $2k
It is noteworthy that the fund does not particularly drag crypto upwards, only downwardsπ
π―11π₯6β€5π5π5
π’ Why should you monitor the price of oil?
Whatever the case, BTC will largely depend on the behavior of the oil price.
As long as oil is below 90-95, BTC can rise. But if oil rises, it could have a negative impact on the cue ball.
Brief summary:
βͺοΈIf oil breaks through and stays above 94-100, the likelihood of a correction on BTC increases greatly in the coming weeks/months.
βͺοΈIf oil rolls back (~80β90) - this is often a good signal for risk assets and BTC growth.
But the connection is not direct and not always strict - it is rather an indirect dependence through inflation, Fed rates and global liquidity.
Whatever the case, BTC will largely depend on the behavior of the oil price.
As long as oil is below 90-95, BTC can rise. But if oil rises, it could have a negative impact on the cue ball.
Brief summary:
βͺοΈIf oil breaks through and stays above 94-100, the likelihood of a correction on BTC increases greatly in the coming weeks/months.
βͺοΈIf oil rolls back (~80β90) - this is often a good signal for risk assets and BTC growth.
But the connection is not direct and not always strict - it is rather an indirect dependence through inflation, Fed rates and global liquidity.
β€9π8π―6π5π₯2
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βI sold BTC at loys in anticipation of 40-50k, poured into gold at highs, and flew into oil at 120 in a panic as a hedge.β
β€7π7π―7π6π₯4
Trump is again organizing a dinner for the holders of his TRUMP shit - on April 25, 297 of the largest holders were invited to Mar-a-Lago, and 29 VIPs will have a personal meeting with their grandfather
On such news, the token jumped by as much as 18%, but it is difficult to notice this on the screen without a microscope.
300 holders of shitπ€£
On such news, the token jumped by as much as 18%, but it is difficult to notice this on the screen without a microscope.
300 holders of shitπ€£
π―8π5π4β€3π₯3
π©Έ Dubai Real Estate Index
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, the collapse has exceeded 30% and itβs not over yet
Those who wanted to shop in Dubki got discounts (but itβs not a fact that the whole house will remain) π
πͺBTC, meanwhile, touched 74k and rolled back below 72k.
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, the collapse has exceeded 30% and itβs not over yet
Those who wanted to shop in Dubki got discounts (but itβs not a fact that the whole house will remain) π
πͺBTC, meanwhile, touched 74k and rolled back below 72k.
π8π―4β€3π3π₯1
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πTrump: We are being polite towards Iran. I can destroy them within the next hour.
The US President emphasized that the country has the ability to inflict such strikes from which Iran will never recover.
The US President emphasized that the country has the ability to inflict such strikes from which Iran will never recover.
π₯7β€4π3π1π―1
πTOTAL β Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΠΎΠ±Π·ΠΎΡ
In terms of overall market capitalization, there was a re-sweep and a sharp downward reaction.
Below, liquidity remains relevant, so I will watch the closing of the daily candle, and then the weekly one.
If we close within the sideways range, then next week or on the weekend we will get a downward price reaction.
In terms of overall market capitalization, there was a re-sweep and a sharp downward reaction.
Below, liquidity remains relevant, so I will watch the closing of the daily candle, and then the weekly one.
If we close within the sideways range, then next week or on the weekend we will get a downward price reaction.
β€6π6π5π₯4π―3
πͺBTC - global review
Some people think that if the Stoch RSI bottomed and made a bullish crossover, then the bottom has already been formed in $BTC.
But this is just complacency - many ignore the fact that the Stoch RSI can remain at the bottom for months before the market actually forms the final bottom of a bearish cycleπ
Some people think that if the Stoch RSI bottomed and made a bullish crossover, then the bottom has already been formed in $BTC.
But this is just complacency - many ignore the fact that the Stoch RSI can remain at the bottom for months before the market actually forms the final bottom of a bearish cycleπ
π2
π»The bear market is cooling down
In the near future, we can assume that Bitcoin will fluctuate in the range of $60kβ$80k.
The structure of 2022 is partially repeated:
π΄A decrease of approximately 52% from ATH - already happened
π΄The stabilization phase is happening now
π΄The final capitulation may be very soon
Key levels to watch:
$57kβ$60k β support zone
$85kβ$88k β resistance zone
$44kβ$50k is the main bear market level.
In the near future, we can assume that Bitcoin will fluctuate in the range of $60kβ$80k.
The structure of 2022 is partially repeated:
π΄A decrease of approximately 52% from ATH - already happened
π΄The stabilization phase is happening now
π΄The final capitulation may be very soon
Key levels to watch:
$57kβ$60k β support zone
$85kβ$88k β resistance zone
$44kβ$50k is the main bear market level.
β€11π6π―6π5π₯3
βοΈ The market grows on threats to Iran
Trump announced a large-scale bombing of Iranian military targets on Kharg Island and threatened attacks on oil infrastructure if Tehran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Against the background of statements, the market flies up:
Bitcoin took $74k, Ethereum stormed $2,300, liquidation of shorts - $300 million per day. π
Trump announced a large-scale bombing of Iranian military targets on Kharg Island and threatened attacks on oil infrastructure if Tehran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Against the background of statements, the market flies up:
Bitcoin took $74k, Ethereum stormed $2,300, liquidation of shorts - $300 million per day. π
π8π―7π6π₯6β€5