πThe likelihood of Trump's impeachment is breaking records
Prediction markets are betting that Donnie will face impeachment proceedings before 2028
On Kalshi, the probability increased to 71% - this is a historical maximum for this market
The collapse of the Trump empire is getting closer and closer, this will be a strong signal for the marketsπ
Prediction markets are betting that Donnie will face impeachment proceedings before 2028
On Kalshi, the probability increased to 71% - this is a historical maximum for this market
The collapse of the Trump empire is getting closer and closer, this will be a strong signal for the marketsπ
π₯8π7π―7π6β€3
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π§ βοΈ Someone released two AI agents with $1,000 each and 48 hours to trade on Polymarket.
Claude: +1,322%, up to $14,216
OpenClaw: Eliminated to zero in less than 48 hours.
Claude: +1,322%, up to $14,216
OpenClaw: Eliminated to zero in less than 48 hours.
π―11π9β€8π6π₯3
π½ Pavel Durov's fortune has decreased almost threefold.
β’ According to updated data, the capital of the Telegram founder decreased from $17.1 billion to $6.6 billion.
β’ This is due to the deterioration of the market situation and the revaluation of the value of Telegram against the background of the financial results of competitors.
β’ Additional pressure on the valuation was exerted by Pavel Durovβs financial obligations - on March 22, the entrepreneur will have to repay the balance on the first issue bonds in the amount of about $1.1 billion.
β’ According to updated data, the capital of the Telegram founder decreased from $17.1 billion to $6.6 billion.
β’ This is due to the deterioration of the market situation and the revaluation of the value of Telegram against the background of the financial results of competitors.
β’ Additional pressure on the valuation was exerted by Pavel Durovβs financial obligations - on March 22, the entrepreneur will have to repay the balance on the first issue bonds in the amount of about $1.1 billion.
π―11π8π7π₯6β€3
π€― Ash Crypto: This is just absurd.
The Pentagon has revealed data: the war with Iran cost the United States $11.3 billion in the first 6 days.
Reminder: DOGE (Department of Government Effectiveness) saved $1 billion per day.
Now the government is spending $1,000,000,000a day on a new war.
The Pentagon has revealed data: the war with Iran cost the United States $11.3 billion in the first 6 days.
Reminder: DOGE (Department of Government Effectiveness) saved $1 billion per day.
Now the government is spending $1,000,000,000a day on a new war.
β€5π5π₯4π―3π2
π€What really moves the market?
The headlines can be loud: wars, oil, recessions, crises.
They frighten those who do not understand the rules of the game.
But the essence is simple - the market seeks to take money from the majority.
Main macro-alpha: everything is driven by debt.
And liquidity is the servicing and expansion of these debts.
Therefore, all assets follow liquidity.
Especially cryptocurrency - it is most sensitive to the influx of money, primarily to US liquidity.
Almost all strong growth coincided with its increase, and large corrections coincided with the withdrawal of liquidity.
The correlation is not perfect, but close to ~90%.
Geopolitics, wars or oil can influence the market at the moment,
but in the long term the price always returns to liquidity.
The historical formula is simple:
Debt grows β liquidity grows β assets grow (including crypto).
The main question is: will US liquidity continue to grow?
More about this in the next post π
The headlines can be loud: wars, oil, recessions, crises.
They frighten those who do not understand the rules of the game.
But the essence is simple - the market seeks to take money from the majority.
Main macro-alpha: everything is driven by debt.
And liquidity is the servicing and expansion of these debts.
Therefore, all assets follow liquidity.
Especially cryptocurrency - it is most sensitive to the influx of money, primarily to US liquidity.
Almost all strong growth coincided with its increase, and large corrections coincided with the withdrawal of liquidity.
The correlation is not perfect, but close to ~90%.
Geopolitics, wars or oil can influence the market at the moment,
but in the long term the price always returns to liquidity.
The historical formula is simple:
Debt grows β liquidity grows β assets grow (including crypto).
The main question is: will US liquidity continue to grow?
More about this in the next post π
π8π₯7β€5π4π―4
π₯Gold is the main indicator of future liquidity
Historically, it outpaces liquidity growth by 3β8 months.
The screenshot I showed demonstrates this well.
Each sharp rise in gold was a harbinger of an influx of liquidity into the US system.
After the metalβs growth stopped, a strong injection of liquidity usually began.
We are currently witnessing one of the strongest gold rallies in recent years.
This increases the likelihood that new historical highs in American liquidity are ahead.
We have already left QT and actually moved to QE lite.
At the same time, rising oil prices push up US bond yields, which creates pressure on the system.
Letβs not forget that in 2026, ~$8 trillion of debt will be refinanced.
Therefore, the strategy is simple: accumulate cache.
βοΈIn the long term, I am very optimistic about the market.
Historically, it outpaces liquidity growth by 3β8 months.
The screenshot I showed demonstrates this well.
Each sharp rise in gold was a harbinger of an influx of liquidity into the US system.
After the metalβs growth stopped, a strong injection of liquidity usually began.
We are currently witnessing one of the strongest gold rallies in recent years.
This increases the likelihood that new historical highs in American liquidity are ahead.
We have already left QT and actually moved to QE lite.
At the same time, rising oil prices push up US bond yields, which creates pressure on the system.
Letβs not forget that in 2026, ~$8 trillion of debt will be refinanced.
Therefore, the strategy is simple: accumulate cache.
βοΈIn the long term, I am very optimistic about the market.
β€10π―7π4π₯4π4
πͺBloomberg senior strategist again predicts that Bitcoin price could fall to $10,000
He argues that the cryptocurrency market continues to be in a long-term macroeconomic correction.
As institutional investment increases, Bitcoin becomes increasingly correlated with other risk assets, and if the markets are significantly overvalued, the cryptocurrency could come under pressure.
He argues that the cryptocurrency market continues to be in a long-term macroeconomic correction.
As institutional investment increases, Bitcoin becomes increasingly correlated with other risk assets, and if the markets are significantly overvalued, the cryptocurrency could come under pressure.
π7π7π₯6β€5π―2
π»Fonda is pulling crypto down
Since the opening of the trading session in the United States, the stock market has lost almost 1 trillion, and the crypto market began to fall after it:
BTC again fell below 70k, ETH flies to $2k
It is noteworthy that the fund does not particularly drag crypto upwards, only downwardsπ
Since the opening of the trading session in the United States, the stock market has lost almost 1 trillion, and the crypto market began to fall after it:
BTC again fell below 70k, ETH flies to $2k
It is noteworthy that the fund does not particularly drag crypto upwards, only downwardsπ
π―11π₯6β€5π5π5
π’ Why should you monitor the price of oil?
Whatever the case, BTC will largely depend on the behavior of the oil price.
As long as oil is below 90-95, BTC can rise. But if oil rises, it could have a negative impact on the cue ball.
Brief summary:
βͺοΈIf oil breaks through and stays above 94-100, the likelihood of a correction on BTC increases greatly in the coming weeks/months.
βͺοΈIf oil rolls back (~80β90) - this is often a good signal for risk assets and BTC growth.
But the connection is not direct and not always strict - it is rather an indirect dependence through inflation, Fed rates and global liquidity.
Whatever the case, BTC will largely depend on the behavior of the oil price.
As long as oil is below 90-95, BTC can rise. But if oil rises, it could have a negative impact on the cue ball.
Brief summary:
βͺοΈIf oil breaks through and stays above 94-100, the likelihood of a correction on BTC increases greatly in the coming weeks/months.
βͺοΈIf oil rolls back (~80β90) - this is often a good signal for risk assets and BTC growth.
But the connection is not direct and not always strict - it is rather an indirect dependence through inflation, Fed rates and global liquidity.
β€9π8π―6π5π₯2
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βI sold BTC at loys in anticipation of 40-50k, poured into gold at highs, and flew into oil at 120 in a panic as a hedge.β
β€7π7π―7π6π₯4
Trump is again organizing a dinner for the holders of his TRUMP shit - on April 25, 297 of the largest holders were invited to Mar-a-Lago, and 29 VIPs will have a personal meeting with their grandfather
On such news, the token jumped by as much as 18%, but it is difficult to notice this on the screen without a microscope.
300 holders of shitπ€£
On such news, the token jumped by as much as 18%, but it is difficult to notice this on the screen without a microscope.
300 holders of shitπ€£
π―8π5π4β€3π₯3
π©Έ Dubai Real Estate Index
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, the collapse has exceeded 30% and itβs not over yet
Those who wanted to shop in Dubki got discounts (but itβs not a fact that the whole house will remain) π
πͺBTC, meanwhile, touched 74k and rolled back below 72k.
Since the beginning of the war in Iran, the collapse has exceeded 30% and itβs not over yet
Those who wanted to shop in Dubki got discounts (but itβs not a fact that the whole house will remain) π
πͺBTC, meanwhile, touched 74k and rolled back below 72k.
π8π―4β€3π3π₯1
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πTrump: We are being polite towards Iran. I can destroy them within the next hour.
The US President emphasized that the country has the ability to inflict such strikes from which Iran will never recover.
The US President emphasized that the country has the ability to inflict such strikes from which Iran will never recover.
π₯7β€4π3π1π―1
πTOTAL β Π»ΠΎΠΊΠ°Π»ΡΠ½ΡΠΉ ΠΎΠ±Π·ΠΎΡ
In terms of overall market capitalization, there was a re-sweep and a sharp downward reaction.
Below, liquidity remains relevant, so I will watch the closing of the daily candle, and then the weekly one.
If we close within the sideways range, then next week or on the weekend we will get a downward price reaction.
In terms of overall market capitalization, there was a re-sweep and a sharp downward reaction.
Below, liquidity remains relevant, so I will watch the closing of the daily candle, and then the weekly one.
If we close within the sideways range, then next week or on the weekend we will get a downward price reaction.
β€6π6π5π₯4π―3