⚠️Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is alive and continues to lead the fighting, Lebanese TV channel Al Mayadeen reported.
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🐻The market is overloaded with shorts
According to leverage data, about $8 billion is currently short and less than $200 million is long. The distortion is colossal.
This means that the majority of participants are betting on the continuation of the fall. But the market does not like imbalance. When one side is overloaded it becomes fuel for movement in the opposite direction.
If upward momentum appears, a cascading short squeeze may begin. Liquidations will begin to intensify the movement, and the price may go the distance faster than skeptics expect.
According to leverage data, about $8 billion is currently short and less than $200 million is long. The distortion is colossal.
This means that the majority of participants are betting on the continuation of the fall. But the market does not like imbalance. When one side is overloaded it becomes fuel for movement in the opposite direction.
If upward momentum appears, a cascading short squeeze may begin. Liquidations will begin to intensify the movement, and the price may go the distance faster than skeptics expect.
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💰 Polymarket user with the nickname Magamyman earned $515 thousand by betting on an invasion of Iran just 71 minutes before the attack began.
At least five other accounts reportedly received a total of about $1.2 million in winnings.
Trump Jr. is a member of Polymarket's advisory board, and his company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year.
The US Department of Justice investigation into the service was dropped after Trump took office.
At least five other accounts reportedly received a total of about $1.2 million in winnings.
Trump Jr. is a member of Polymarket's advisory board, and his company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year.
The US Department of Justice investigation into the service was dropped after Trump took office.
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📊 Markets opened with growth in oil and metals amid mixed dynamics.
With the opening of US futures, oil prices jumped 12%, but then stabilized at around +8%, trading at $72.50 per barrel.
Dynamics of other assets:
Gold: +1.25%
Silver: +1.26%
· Bitcoin: +1%
Nasdaq: -0.67%
Russell 2000: -1%
Oil (WTI): +8%
With the opening of US futures, oil prices jumped 12%, but then stabilized at around +8%, trading at $72.50 per barrel.
Dynamics of other assets:
Gold: +1.25%
Silver: +1.26%
· Bitcoin: +1%
Nasdaq: -0.67%
Russell 2000: -1%
Oil (WTI): +8%
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❌The Fed will NOT cut rates in March
The likelihood that the Fed will not cut interest rates has increased to 95.5% amid missile attacks between the US and Iran.
In this situation, investors invest less in risky assets such as crypto and more often hold money in dollars and bonds.
Therefore, this is bad for the crypt, because it will be more difficult for it to grow.
The likelihood that the Fed will not cut interest rates has increased to 95.5% amid missile attacks between the US and Iran.
In this situation, investors invest less in risky assets such as crypto and more often hold money in dollars and bonds.
Therefore, this is bad for the crypt, because it will be more difficult for it to grow.
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🏎Institutional Investors Accelerate Bitcoin Integration
🔴 60% of the largest US banks are developing products using BTC
🔴 90% of the top 50 RIAs according to Barron’s have already included BTC in their portfolios
🔴 52% of the top 25 hedge funds have also integrated BTC into their investment strategies
🔴 60% of the largest US banks are developing products using BTC
🔴 90% of the top 50 RIAs according to Barron’s have already included BTC in their portfolios
🔴 52% of the top 25 hedge funds have also integrated BTC into their investment strategies
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🚀 VanEck CEO Jan van Eck believes Bitcoin is on the verge of a reversal.
The main factor behind this is the four-year halving cycle: for three years Bitcoin shows growth, and in the fourth year there is a significant correction. 2026 exactly corresponds to this “fourth year”.
In addition, van Eck notes that in conditions of geopolitical instability, cryptocurrency is becoming a means for transferring funds outside the banking system, especially in regions with developed crypto infrastructure, such as the UAE.
The main factor behind this is the four-year halving cycle: for three years Bitcoin shows growth, and in the fourth year there is a significant correction. 2026 exactly corresponds to this “fourth year”.
In addition, van Eck notes that in conditions of geopolitical instability, cryptocurrency is becoming a means for transferring funds outside the banking system, especially in regions with developed crypto infrastructure, such as the UAE.
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🟠The last three military conflicts demonstrated a similar reaction of the Bitcoin market
At first, due to the news, there is a sharp decline, and then the price recovers and starts growing within a month.
Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022): growth from ~$34.3k to ~$47k per month.
Israel-Hamas conflict (2023): increase from ~$26.5k to ~$35k.
Iran–Israel conflict (2025): increase from ~$99k to ~$126k.
The growth a month after the start of the escalation was approximately 19–21%.
If this pattern repeats, the $78-80k range over 3-4 weeks looks statistically sound.
At first, due to the news, there is a sharp decline, and then the price recovers and starts growing within a month.
Russia-Ukraine conflict (2022): growth from ~$34.3k to ~$47k per month.
Israel-Hamas conflict (2023): increase from ~$26.5k to ~$35k.
Iran–Israel conflict (2025): increase from ~$99k to ~$126k.
The growth a month after the start of the escalation was approximately 19–21%.
If this pattern repeats, the $78-80k range over 3-4 weeks looks statistically sound.
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